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| User Info | You Can't Possibly Be Serious (CRE) in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 71412 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/1562-Y....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-10-31 10:06:21
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Richv Posts: 15 Incept: 2009-05-24
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They are trying to fix the cracks in the dam with paper mache to forestall the flood. Buying a few months time with hundreds of billions of our $$.
2009-10-31 10:15:23
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Krzelune Posts: 2078 Incept: 2007-10-08 
DFW
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That guy that only owes 5 million has an unfair advantage so the other guy deserves some affirmative economic action. At this point I wouldn't be surprised at anything this govt does trying to tweak here and tweak there in an attempt to influence behavior and of course totally skewing any resemblance to a natural economic order of things.
2009-10-31 10:15:27
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Swingtrader Posts: 5891 Incept: 2007-08-12 
United Oligarchic Goldman Sachs States of America
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Yep. Will probably push it somewhat further out, as leases expire. As leases roll forward, they will be replaced with leases for less. That is making the assumption that the lease will actually roll forward, whereas in many cases the lease will go "poof" when the tenant goes "poof" ---------- Janet Tavakoli wrote.....greater risk for deflationary collapse than before... Whether we get deflationary collapse followed by inflation or just move straight to inflation, the economy is guaranteed more pain.
2009-10-31 10:15:56
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Bozonian Posts: 14033 Incept: 2007-09-01
PFT - Pure F'n Tin
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As usual, Karl is 6 months to a year ahead of the game while Congress and the Fed are 6 months to a year behind it.
---------- I'm so depressed about outsourcing I called the suicide hotline and got a call center in Pakistan. They got all excited and asked me if I could drive a truck. Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice.
2009-10-31 10:18:02
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Truesincerity Posts: 590 Incept: 2008-03-07 Virginia
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The FED is turning its back and basically telling the banks do what you have to do with our blessings. Extend and Pretend baby, until we can get thru this.
---------- Do not answer a fool according to his folly, or you will be like him yourself.
2009-10-31 10:25:10
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Etz3l Posts: 9103 Incept: 2007-06-26
Online
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Think of a can that gets heavier everytime you kick it. At some point you're just gonna fracture your toes. ---------- Treating the symptoms of financial corruption isn’t the same as removing the causes.
2009-10-31 10:30:00
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Wendya Posts: 26 Incept: 2009-06-02
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A couple of Zero Hedge links for thought... Is Fed Abandoning Bailout Of Commercial Real Estate [http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fed-aba....] <blockquote> The other implication is that firms with CRE exposure can no longer rely on the Fed as a perpetual guarantor of risky exposure. Not only that, but in adopting a new policy strategy, the Fed is acknowledging the major problem that CRE writedowns will represent for banks, yet is telling banks to resolve problems on their own, while subsequently they will "not be subject to criticism for engaging in these efforts." The implications of this Fed action for the economy could be staggering as the $3.5 b,quadr,trillion CRE market will likely not receive the same largesse that residential real estate has been the recipient of ever since the conservatorship of the GSEs. And the biggest loser in all of this will be banks that still have not used the massive risk rally to offload whole loan and CMBS CRE holdings, and moreover, still have these marked at par or close thereby. </blockquote> Also: Wilbur Ross: "The Beginning Of A Huge Crash In Commercial Real Estate" [http://www.zerohedge.com/article/wilbur-....]
2009-10-31 10:34:53
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Henderson1 Posts: 639 Incept: 2007-08-09
Online
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First of all, I see no downside in the CRE operator doing a 'workout' with the lender. After that, however, what possible business advantage would the CRE operator have in paying above-market prices for his commercial space? This has redefault and FPD written all over. It does buy the banks a few months but the piper will still be paid.
2009-10-31 10:36:36
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Ponzi_unit Posts: 4439 Incept: 2007-09-05
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If I'm a municipality is it now in my interest to pass commercial zoning anywhere and everywhere?
2009-10-31 10:50:42
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Markytom Posts: 217 Incept: 2009-02-19
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It's all part of the "immaculate recovery" belief where they all hope that prices magically return to 2006/2007 bubble levels. Just trying to buy a little more time. Desperate times call for desperate measures, and the government is truly desperate (and rather delusional to boot). Chances of the immaculate recovery are essentially zero. It will all end in tears.
2009-10-31 11:03:29
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Dji Posts: 720 Incept: 2009-04-21
Fleming Island Online
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Gen all tickers like this should refer people to the ISN'T THIS ILLEGAL ticker We are way beyond Enron Book cooking now. WTF ---------- What goes up Must come Down- Alan Parsons Project THE TRUTH HURTS! -Dji
2009-10-31 11:05:52
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9pin Posts: 2077 Incept: 2009-01-04
Online
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Henderson1 +1, ... To me, the big news here is the indirect message.. FED backstops which were done for AIG, GS, JPM, BoA, C, GMAC, GE, GM, Freddie and Fannie, ... will not be there for CRE. Your on your own, manage your risk. Also, importantly, now that the FED has actually taken a position, e.g., no punch bowl here, I'd actually expect the CRE mess to actually begin resolving.. where it had been in a major holding pattern, waiting for help. So, if you were a "prudent" Banker facing solvency due to CRE, what would you do. I'd say, it (CRE) gets worse before it gets better, but this is the path if 'getting better' is still a possibility. ---------- playing in-front of trains is risky/resistance and lines are crayons/herds but for turns/real diamonds cut glass/..again, there is no edge in what everyone knows.
2009-10-31 11:14:36
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Henderson1 Posts: 639 Incept: 2007-08-09
Online
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Yep, when a guy who drives a nuclear-powered printing press offers 'to look the other way' and nothing else, a little more time is all you're getting.
2009-10-31 11:29:55
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Realist Posts: 95 Incept: 2009-07-14 Pennsylvania
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How long can these games and frauds continue? ------------------------------------------------- A trillion here, a trillion there and pretty soon you're talking about real money ************************************* Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist. - Kenneth Boulding, economist
2009-10-31 11:32:22
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Genesis Posts: 71412 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Until the cash flow is insufficient. That day is arriving, here and now. Slowly, at the periphery so far, but it is happening. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-10-31 11:34:04
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Koolaid Posts: 3171 Incept: 2007-07-23
Atlanta
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Won't the Fed just keep printing and covering up for the lack of cashflows? Maybe not for the little banks, but certainly for the TBTF guys. I don't expect they'll be as forthcoming about it as the prior QE efforts, but I just can't see any scenario in which they don't try to cover things up behind the scenes (and off the "books").
2009-10-31 11:49:31
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Skybluepink Posts: 235 Incept: 2007-10-20
RI
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Speaking of cashflows, is this a desperate attempt to allow the banks to hold onto loans that still have cash flow & damn the consequences when they blow up later? This is getting scarier by the day.
2009-10-31 12:06:17
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Doctorbob Posts: 812 Incept: 2009-06-03 Gusher of black gold
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The Government agencies want things to look good. They want to instill confidence in the proletarian masses. Bank A holds the refinanced $10 million loan. Bank A did what the Pigmen wanted and lost nothing. If fact, it got rid of a shaky note and now has a “performing” note. It went from a troubled bank to an untroubled bank. Everyone is happy, except Karl, Bob, and a few other throwbacks. Bank B foreclosed and lost $5m in equity. It is now a shaky bank, naked before all. No one is happy. Alchemist Michael Milken created a world where junk bonds were gold, because he created the perception that the yield and the discount outweighed the risk. And if you did not believe him, he or one of his super-salesmen would call you and would schmooze you until you changed your perception. When junk bonds collapsed, the pigmen came up with new schemes, like credit default swaps. Junk bonds and CDS are the same thing, snake oil relabeled as Indian remedy. Oh, and Milken’s bonus for one year, way back in the 1980s? $500m (as I recall). Sound familiar? Drexel didn’t give a damn how Milken made money, only that he did. “People” like Bernanke really believe that perception is reality. Their view may seem irrational. But they rule the U.S. No one can challenge them.
2009-10-31 12:16:32
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Pauperbear Posts: 1406 Incept: 2008-01-22
norwalk, ct
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Quote:hair-brained scheme should be harebrained scheme ---------- The truth is incontrovertible, malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end; there it is. Winston Churchill
2009-10-31 12:16:49
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Ilikecoffee Posts: 1019 Incept: 2008-04-17
cold , AK
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Another fine example of Krudblows free market capitalism. What is free in this example and who is benefitting the most?
---------- You can trust the government, ask any American Indian. "When people lose everything and they have nothing left to lose, they lose it" Gerald Celente
2009-10-31 12:29:01
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Jazen Posts: 1509 Incept: 2007-07-17
Online
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Karl Correct me if I am wrong or misunderstood, but someone has to eat that 5 million then. If this is the case, why would any bank in their right mind float a CRE loan in the future (most of these are coming due for a rollover in the next 2 years) to anyone? If they know that someone is going to get left standing when the music stops? ---------- Y'all smoke this **** to escape reality? Me, I don't need this ****. I am reality.
2009-10-31 12:37:07
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Yermawm Posts: 91 Incept: 2009-04-20 SoCal
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You just can't make this sh!t up!!! > than 100% LTV on depreciating assets? This cannot work. Potential takeaways: A) The $ really means nothing as a unit of account so pay what you like. B) We will mop this up with further liquidity to make loans whole again. Despite the Fed's rhetoric. ..Or is this a trap to consolidate properties into fewer hands? Too tin? ---------- Hide the decline. The new math.
2009-10-31 12:49:06
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Shioda Posts: 50 Incept: 2009-02-21
Newport Beach
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I know California National Bank had several commercial loans that were not in default but the loan came due and the owner could not get refinancing because the property would not appraise. What should be done in that situation?
---------- Let the stupid bird fly first - Old Chinese Proverb
2009-10-31 12:51:50
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Eaglewwit Posts: 1889 Incept: 2007-11-30 SoCal
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Where is the FDIC going get all this money. So I guess we can expect to see the recovery rates going down on the FDIC banks now.
---------- "Not even I imagined we would see trillions of dollars being created and given to the culprits as a means of allegedly "saving" the system. This is not mere Keynesianism; it is Keynesianism on steroids and crystal meth."
2009-10-31 12:54:27
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