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| User Info | Why I Run My Own Money - And You Should Too in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 71391 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/748-Wh....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-01-27 08:30:50
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Gmak Posts: 10176 Incept: 2007-07-27 
Re-inventing the future at the speed of time.
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Amen.
2009-01-27 08:38:55
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Digitalcolony Posts: 335 Incept: 2007-07-09 
Seattle
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Might be kind of cool to see a 2 minute video on YouTube demonstrating the 20W/50W rule using data from a public site. Start the clock, fire up a browser ...
2009-01-27 09:16:58
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Genesis Posts: 71391 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Uh, Digital, there is one on my YouTube channel.... :)
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-01-27 09:18:06
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Uwe Posts: 1029 Incept: 2009-01-03
Philly Burbs
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Yep. Last summer I was dumb enough to give 25% of my portfolio to "money managers" because I didn't want to be bothered running it myself and I was well over the FDIC limits on some bank accounts. That 25% became 15% over the space of a few months because they had convinced me that my overall allocation was way too heavy on cash. I was simply not paying attention. My bad. Never again. I'm not retired. I own/run a business which remains quite profitable despite the downturn. For the time being, I'm back in cash, except for 5% of my portfolio which I'm actively trading now. I'm not trading it with the expectation of making huge gains, but simply because it makes me pay attention to what's going on. It's also fun -- all the excitement of a casino without leaving my desk. The only downside, it eats a lot of my time. -Uwe- ---------- “Political tags - such as royalist, communist, democrat, populist, fascist, liberal, conservative, and so forth - are never basic criteria. The human race divides politically into those who want people to be controlled and those who have no such desire.” - Heinlein
2009-01-27 09:28:34
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Digitalcolony Posts: 335 Incept: 2007-07-09
Seattle
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2009-01-27 09:30:49
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Chameleon Posts: 570 Incept: 2007-09-11
USA Banned
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Here is a great first hand example for some if you have any doubts. I had this local ****tard UBS VP try to sucker me into letting them "take care of me" and "all" my assets. The relationship was initiated through a "friend". I basically just wanted a few good stocks to purchase for my own portfolio so I moved a decent percent of my stocks to them in a separate BROKErage account. For months I would ask about some trading tips. For months all I got was "we need ALL your assets with us so we can REALLY take care of you". Oh, did I mention the yearly 1% fee of my total accounts whether they made money or not. Oooops. After almost a year not ONE stock tip, only the sales pitch for the ****tard to get my 1% per year. Poetic justice. He got FIRED about a year later. Now I hear from highly credible friend, him and his wifey are Swingers. I guess they'll **** you coming and going.
2009-01-27 09:35:34
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Genesis Posts: 71391 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Heh he could have told you how to put your money in a Swiss account to cheat the IRS! Oops - they turned all those people in! Now that's a BONE-US 
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me Last modified:
2009-01-27 09:37:04 by genesis
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Chameleon Posts: 570 Incept: 2007-09-11
USA Banned
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Nay, I use "TurboTax". 
2009-01-27 09:38:12
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Sandor Posts: 1002 Incept: 2007-08-08
Deltaville,Virginia
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Typo alert. "to the clowns who lost have your money - or more - over the last year." I think "have" should be "half"
2009-01-27 09:55:47
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Offshoreman Posts: 87 Incept: 2008-10-22
Austin, Tx
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Any reading Material on the 20W/50W investing plan? I am very, very new(actully I have no clue, trying to learn) to stock investing and would like to learn more about the specifics.
2009-01-27 10:13:01
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Wishiunderstood Posts: 14 Incept: 2008-12-17
NY
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Thanks Karl, I've been reading your tickers for a few months now and am glad I found you. I don't understand much about economics but somehow understood immediately that you truly GET IT. Thanks Digital for posting that YouTube video. My question is, how do you find the current chart that shows the 2 extra lines (the ones you use to find the cross). I searched for "S&P 500 index chart" and found a chart but it didn't have those 2 lines. I apologize in advance for what I'm sure is a really stupid question....
2009-01-27 10:14:01
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Asimov Posts: 26666 Incept: 2007-08-26
east tennessee Online
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A question asked from a lack of knowledge is not stupid. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=.... ---------- It's justifiably immoral to try to deal in a moral fashion with an immoral entity. If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
2009-01-27 10:17:36
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Ruffcut Posts: 2187 Incept: 2007-07-07 Mushagain Online
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I looked at that the beta factor a couple years ago. It is like all indicators and is based on historical data. Basic fundamental analysis is quite important, as well. But, when the CEO's are lying and playing balance sheet games, and wall street is pump dumping, the indicators don't carry much weight. Yes, mutual funds are a suckers bet. Remember an old 60 minutes when the chimp took on the wall street stock picker? The chimp won two years in a row. I still know relatives holding onto their ford shares. They still think they will go back up. I figure its their money and can lose it if they want to. I told all relatives, neighbors and friends, two years ago that the outlook was bad and why. A few listened and the ones that didn't, now act mad at me. When entertaining company, the three taboo subjects to discuss are sex, religion and politics. I have since added money and markets, to this list. ---------- Support locally, and **** off globally!
2009-01-27 10:51:06
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Geckojb Posts: 146 Incept: 2008-11-10 troy, MI Online
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Thanks Karl for the Ticker. As in most careers there are the majority that are clueless and a select handful that know what they are doing, understand markets and know how to properly advise others. Yes I am talking my book. I am not ashamed and have run an honest business. Over the past year I have given advice that could of benefited me but put others interests first. Telling people that they should consider pulling money out of there accounts and keeping some at home. Showing them how to build up physical gold, also by pulling money out of my accounts. Putting clients in treasuries to safeguard them. I make a good living, albeit much less than my less sophiticated and more greedy advisor friends but so what. Most people I council are totally inept and clueless on financial matters. When I talked about gold, protecting themselves, or putting money in treasuries they couldn't grasp it and still can't. I have mentioned before that I had many irate people that couldn't understand why I had them in treasuries earning nothing. I explained and on some level they understood but there lizard brains really wouldn't let them. These are mostly intellgent people by the way. I believe we are entering a time where many will just give up and keep money in cash, that is until the greed chemcial kicks back in. Your premise that everyone should manage their own money is noble but unrealistic. They really should but they really can't. The counter argument then says well if they cannot then they should be in cash/CD's then. Well I agree but they won't agree. See I have written about the human psyche and I think you may over look it at times. Most want something for nothing. Most have expansive risk tolerances in good times and none in bad times. Most want all the upside and no downside risk. I am sure many will say "then they deserve to be Made Offed" if they are that stupid. Well, possibly but this way of thinking is the norm. It's rare, really rare that I come across a regular joe that gets it. You do a tremendous service and have enlighted many to the issues and how to be self reliant. The Pareto principle and the human psyche will keep you from reaching everyone. For those people I think I can make a difference. Thanks for all you do. Your help has been instrumental.
2009-01-27 10:51:27
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Berkleyreindeer Posts: 560 Incept: 2008-07-22 Minneapolis , MN
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everyone has to manage their own money since they have a checkbook and a credit card. dealing with those two things in a responsible manner is equally important when compared to investments and planning. If j6p can't tame the plastic monster and avoid overdrafts, trying to make 8% a year is completely pointless. Most of us on this board figured this stuff out before we turned 20. How many of us have family who go to Mexico on a plastic vacation? Took 7 year loans on cars? Refi'd to pay off the cards? Had to argue with a teller to get out of an accidental overdraft charge? Failed to claim the employer match on a 401k? These things are MORE important than beating the SP500, and large chunks of the population don't even give a rat's ass. ---------- It'll get worse. Just wait.
2009-01-27 11:17:23
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Mezzmor Posts: 507 Incept: 2008-10-09
Orlando, FL
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You know what really gives me the red ass is the 401k scam that has been perpetrated on us in the name of fiduciary resbonsibility. Your employer has a fiduciary responsibility to ensure that you don't blow up your 401k in stupid **** so you are limited to the garbage funds that the plan admin gives you. The funds the plan admin gives you are almost always correlated to the commission amount for the broker who sold it to your plan admin. These funds almost always stay invested because the funds' "stated investment objective" says it has to. You have a 90 day moratorium on buys/sells, so you can't sell in late August when the writing was on the wall (last chance to get the **** out) and buy back in in November. This **** is not your retirement savings vehicle. If it was, you would have a choice of a couple dozen mutual funds, the NON-LEVERAGED ETF's on the exchanges, and individual S&P 100 stocks. It's not YOUR investment vehicle - it's the plan admin, the broker, and the fund managers income vehicle. One other signal that it a good indicator for when to get out (although it doesn't tell you when to get in) is an inverted yield curve. It's almost flawless at predicting recession. That's what got me out of the market in Feb. 07, and although I missed the last 70 up on the S&P I think I still wound up doing OK. At least until now that money market yields are negative.
2009-01-27 11:31:12
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Buck350 Posts: 618 Incept: 2008-10-22
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Another great ticker, Gen. Thank you from me and mine, and also to everyone at TF. After an embarrassingly large number of years being clueless and distracted, and after getting tangled up with two different "Advisors", (who unfortunately are nothing at all like you Gecko), I am finally getting my head around how to "run my own money." This place is a great place to learn, even though I can still only contribute to the conversation in small ways. I also plan to use the excellent 20/50WMA approach because I still lack the time and expertise to do much aactive trading, but at least it's a start. Ruffcut, you make great points. I am also intersted in the limits of the 20/50 approach. I see today that the spread on the two trendlines is currently 235 points! This is by far the largest divergence as far back as I can find. Anyone have any thoughts as to what that says for the reliability of this indicator? ---------- I think Paulson and Bernanke knew early on that Wile E. Coyote had already run straight off the cliff, so they chose to focus on frantic efforts to slow his descent before J6P notices the "gravity" of what has happened, hoping that the proles won't panic telegenically on the way down.
2009-01-27 11:32:59
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Rutben Posts: 899 Incept: 2007-07-27
Phoenix, AZ Online
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As a financial advisor and manager/owner (13%) of my own fund, I regrettably have to agree. Since I think those who end up ahead are those who avoid substantial losses, risk aversion has always been a top priority. You don't always have to beat the averages on the upside, but you do have to be out of the market on the big declines....and if you have the mental makeup to be short during those declines, you can more than make up for underperforming on the upside. Luckily we have been short in 1987, 2001 and recently. Now I can afford to wait until I can be a "value" investor again. I screen daily for companies selling for less than 1.2 times tangible book, current ratio of 2 or more, debt/equity less than .5 and PE under 12. I have about 300 companies I am watching and expect the 2009 selling climax will produce 1974 and 1982 type values. I plan to own between 30-50 of the best and could care less how I will perform against the averages. Regarding my compensation, luckily I can afford to be an idiot and took a pittance instead of 2% of assets. When your dumb enough to cause yourself taxable income from managing your own money, then your incentive to pay yourself is "restrained".
2009-01-27 11:36:35
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Statusquojoe Posts: 2397 Incept: 2008-11-20
Land of the fees Home of the slaves.
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Thanks for this ticker Gen. I like Peter Schiff not because I follow his trading advice but because he more or less adheres to the Austrian School. I also like reading your tickers and Mish's tickers. I do not trade per se, and having said that I know you frown on those who enter the forum who do not trade. But having done so and reading your articles and reading other's comments and articles I am learning a lot and when I get back on my feet I think I will begin some trading on my own. I have always been a do-it-yourselfer and think that we as a society haven't really gained a lot by evolving into a "specialization" mentality. I hope you guys won't judge me harshly for hanging around in here, if so let me know and I will just read the forum as a guest. But I do appreciate your knowledge and think what you are all doing it patriotic in spirit, and that said I think that both Mish and Peter Schiff are doing the same although they may have different economic paradigms (I think Mish thinks its a deflationist problem and Schiff thinks its an inflationist end of the dollar problem). 
---------- "In short, you are the definition of moral hazard." Senator Bunning to Bernanke
2009-01-27 11:39:57
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Tesla Posts: 8174 Incept: 2008-04-03
Delaware
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Does this just work on the SPX or does it hold true on all the indexes ?
---------- "Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." Samuel Adams I'd rather die on my feet than live on my knees. - Emiliano Zapata
2009-01-27 11:43:10
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Geckojb Posts: 146 Incept: 2008-11-10 troy, MI Online
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Mezzmor I would be happy to testify in a class action lawsuit against the fiduciaries for holding people prisoner to losses in their 401k. My gut tells me that it's going to happen.
2009-01-27 11:43:27
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Mezzmor Posts: 507 Incept: 2008-10-09
Orlando, FL
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Tesla for some reason it only applies to the SPX and nobody knows quite why it works but it does.
2009-01-27 11:45:27
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Berkleyreindeer Posts: 560 Incept: 2008-07-22 Minneapolis , MN
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geckojb: the flipside is letting people do what they want, which will invariably lead to blow ups. damned if they do, damned if they don't.
---------- It'll get worse. Just wait.
2009-01-27 11:50:24
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Genesis Posts: 71391 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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All 401k plans should be required to offer EITHER a low-cost money market fund that is invested 100% in Treasury paper OR a direct short-term Treasury Fund (duration no more than 26 weeks on any security held), and permit employees to transfer INTO that fund at any time, unrestricted. They should also be required to offer a WILSHIRE 5,000 INDEX FUND (broadest reasonable US index exposure.) If you want to limit transfers BACK (e.g. require 30 days notice, etc) that's fine - but these two options should be REQUIRED of all 401k plans. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-01-27 11:52:58
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