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User Info Why America Is Headed For A Depression in forum [Ticker]
Genesis
Posts: 66462
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Royal Flush!
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http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archi....

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I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife?
I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects
Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me
2008-08-20 09:29:16
Asimov
Posts: 21226
Incept: 2007-08-26

east tennessee
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Gen: Not sure if you want the input or not, but...

"If not, will what it pays if your job is NOT outsources to China keep food on your table?"

I think that should be "outsourced"

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It's justifiably immoral to try to deal in a moral fashion with an immoral entity.

If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
2008-08-20 09:47:47
Genesis
Posts: 66462
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Royal Flush!
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Thanks - fixed.

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I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife?
I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects
Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me
2008-08-20 09:49:44
Asimov
Posts: 21226
Incept: 2007-08-26

east tennessee
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Excellent btw, should have said that in the above.

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It's justifiably immoral to try to deal in a moral fashion with an immoral entity.

If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
2008-08-20 09:54:33
Dakine2004
Posts: 5137
Incept: 2007-10-23
A True American Patriot!
MD.MI.NC.SD.
Online
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Ouch...hard-hitting...thanks...

FedGov tries to cut off retirement checks...the March on D.C. will be reminiscent of the '32 Bonus March - also too late...


2008-08-20 09:55:47
Guydaley
Posts: 10361
Incept: 2007-07-10
A True American Patriot!
Missouri & Wyoming
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K.I.D.


Karl Indefatigable Denninger

Hopefully the IOUSA movie will get the sheeple to stop grazing for a moment or two. But, they may simply go back to grazing.

Kudos for continuing to get the message out K.I.D.

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2/17/09 = Hogzilla bill was signed = THE POINT OF NO RETURN = Cheers to the Reset, LONG LIVE THE UNDERGROUND ECONOMY! STARVE the BEAST! Adopt a J6P.
2008-08-20 09:56:26
Mvj
Posts: 1623
Incept: 2007-07-30
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Till 2000, Indians were great savers. Our parents were strict in spending and they taught their children about savings and all. Kids were not getting anything easily. But after that the new generation are least bothered about savings and adapting US way of living (living in debt). People got greedy and low interest rates sparked consumerism. Easy money spoiled a lot here. Now things have changed a lot here. At the same time people are feeling the pinch now with high rates of interest and inflation. Earlier the better, right?

Last modified: 2008-08-20 10:02:11 by jayarammv

2008-08-20 09:56:27
Twofaced
Posts: 720
Incept: 2007-07-18

Virginia
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I have to say, one of the best tickers by far.

I took your advice early last year and got out of debt, I have less than 1000 USD of debt, besides my normal living costs (rent, food, ect...)

I guess the public will get bitch slapped in the face one day and wake up.

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Steve LIESman "Saving is UNAMERICAN"
2008-08-20 10:02:07
Widgeon
Posts: 5671
Incept: 2007-08-30

OK
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A small aside ...

We see and hear all the time the phrase "as a % of GDP" used to justify high levels of apparent debt. I've "known" or "felt" for many years that this official number is a fiction ... but have frequently been unable to explain why. I still don't have much ability with this problem. However, I did find Chapter 16 (fuzzy numbers) of the linked series to be a wonderful and fast explanation for a portion of the "problem."

GDP is nowhere near $14T ... that's a Lie. That number is overstated by several tens of percent.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/fuzzy_numb....

2008-08-20 10:18:52
Jrfar005
Posts: 182
Incept: 2008-05-14

Northeast
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Karl, I wish I could express these thoughts as eloquently as you do. I have been saying similar things to my friends and family for years, especially my wife. I will be sending this ticker to everyone I know and hopefully raise a little awareness. The Fd up thing is that it really is common sense....understanding why the people have such little of it is the key...then attack it from that angle....Thanks again

2008-08-20 10:21:51
Jrfar005
Posts: 182
Incept: 2008-05-14

Northeast
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Widge, I just finished watching that series....AMAZING...I also sent the link to everyone I know. My wife watched it and it changed her perspective entirely...I was going to put the link on here as well...Karl you might want to put it at the top of one of the Forums...it is really good....

2008-08-20 10:23:47
Jonw
Posts: 4
Incept: 2008-06-15
Moab, UT
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I wholeheartedly agree with today's ticker...and for that matter every one I've read. Thanks Karl.

It's pretty clear that 99% of Americans don't get what's coming but what's really scary is that we have no real leaders to solve even the simple problems. That's apparent every time I contact my Congressional representatives...something I do constantly even though it seems pointless.

So, is there hope with the new presidential candidates? I don't think so... The presidential candidates remind me of what Lewis Black described as his choices in the last election. He said; "it's a choice between two **** sandwiches". I think that's apt because there's a depression coming and they are clearly clueless. Congress is worse than clueless and appears deeply corrupted by lobbyist influence. But, collectively what do we do about it...nothing. So you are right Karl...we will end up getting what we deserve. A depression. Maybe we will wake up from the entitlement delusion then and do something smart.

2008-08-20 10:25:35
Nevertoolate
Posts: 766
Incept: 2007-08-26
A True American Patriot!
San Antonio de Bexar de runover with illegals, Texas
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Don't usually comment, but this is by far your greatest work yet that anyone can understand. Now if only J6P could understand that a US economy of 14T with debt obligations 6 or so times that amount is the same as someone making 60K a year having to service debt of 420K and still pay for all other necessary expenses. Maybe just maybe.....

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Before you attempt to beat the odds, be sure that you can survive the odds beating you.
The only true "Change YOU can believe in" will be when we get 535 new CONgresspeople.
2008-08-20 10:28:47
Guydaley
Posts: 10361
Incept: 2007-07-10
A True American Patriot!
Missouri & Wyoming
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Now here is a way to get people interested in protesting. They could get arrested and then split a huge illegal arrest settlement:

NYC to pay $2 million to arrested war protesters

Wednesday August 20, 9:32 am ET
By Larry Neumeister, Associated Press Writer

Lawyers: NYC agrees to pay $2M to settle lawsuit with arrested Iraq war protestors


NEW YORK (AP) -- The city has agreed to pay $2 million to settle a lawsuit claiming 52 Iraq war activists were unjustly arrested, lawyers announced Tuesday.

The activists were arrested in April 2003 outside the Manhattan offices of a military contractor, the Carlyle Group.

Lawyers for the activists said in a news release that the tactics used by police at the demonstration were similar to those used a year later when hundreds of activists were arrested during the 2004 Republican National Convention at Madison Square Garden.

The city and police department faced backlash after the convention, with critics claiming the aggressive response showed a blatant disregard for the demonstrators' civil rights.

Lawyers said that in both instances, people were arrested without police warning or without providing an opportunity for anyone to leave.

Filmmaker and attorney Sarah Kunstler, who was arrested at the 2003 protest, said it was ironic that the settlement took four years to achieve but still happened faster than an end to the Iraq war.


"We definitely see it as a victory," said Kunstler, the daughter of William Kunstler, a civil rights lawyer who died in 1995. "With enough people and enough lawsuits like this, the city will see a need to change policy."

Kunstler was acquitted at trial of criminal charges brought after her arrest in the protest.

City Law Department senior counsel Susan Halatyn said the city did not admit liability in the settlement.

"Although defendants believe that they would ultimately have prevailed at a trial, the costs of going forward weighed in favor of settlement at this time," Halatyn said in a statement.

Isn't it nice that the taxpayers of NYC can afford to spend $2M to stifle civil protests?




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2/17/09 = Hogzilla bill was signed = THE POINT OF NO RETURN = Cheers to the Reset, LONG LIVE THE UNDERGROUND ECONOMY! STARVE the BEAST! Adopt a J6P.
2008-08-20 10:37:23
Tigerskin
Posts: 13
Incept: 2008-07-11

louisiana
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A masterpiece.

2008-08-20 10:46:59
Fugitivekind
Posts: 545
Incept: 2007-08-20
A True American Patriot!
Boston
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That was beautiful! Thanks Gen!

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There's something very strange about issuing debt to solve a problem caused by too much debt - Governor Mark Sanford (R-SC)
2008-08-20 10:50:10
Etz3l
Posts: 8658
Incept: 2007-06-26
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I thought this was relevant to today's ticker,
Thomas Palley wrote..
It is important to understand the social origins of the American corporate predator state because understanding is a necessary part of developing responses for caging the predators and replacing them with another better order. Those origins clearly trace back to the military – industrial complex that President Eisenhower warned about in his final televised address to the nation on January 17, 1961.

That complex has captured politics and corrupted the business of government, including of course the conduct of national security policy. The fact that it has wrapped itself with the flag and entwined itself with the military makes it impossible to confront without being charged as unpatriotic. Worst yet, its enormous enduring profitability has provided a model for imitation by other industrial complexes like Big Pharma and Big Oil.

The political success of these predators is clearly linked to money’s role in politics. Money gives the power to buy the political process, and that power is defended by a gospel of free speech that takes no account of the fact that out-shouting someone is qualitatively equivalent to silencing them. Economics also comes to money’s defense with its absurd myth of a market for ideas in which participants compete on a level playing field and truth is effortlessly sorted from error.

The American worship of business and businessmen, which Sinclair Lewis (Babbitt, 1922) wrote about long ago, also plays a role. This worship privileges business over thought and other activities, and is behind the dismissive sneer “if you’re so smart how come you are not rich?” As a result, Americans are all too willing to hand over their government to business predators. Today, it is in Goldman Sachs we trust.

Another feature of business worship is a tendency to conflate profit with free markets. That means the distinction between fair competition (which is good) and fat profits (which are bad) is lost, thereby providing cover for predators.

Lastly, there is the legacy of the Cold war which contributed to economic dumbing-down and suppression of awareness of class and class conflict. This suppression was seen as necessary for blunting the dangerous appeal of Soviet communism, but a consequence was to create blindness to the predators in our midst.

All of this reveals a deep deficit in America’s social and economic understanding (some deficits really do matter). And as long as this deficit remains, the predators will have a starting gate advantage in the game of political persuasion.

Yet, how to close the deficit and insert another understanding is an enormous challenge. There are deep institutional obstructions in the academy, the media, and the Democratic Party. Moreover, raising these issues may create unsettling cognitive dissonance that pushes voters into denial and a closer embrace of the predators.

In effect, there is a paradox to be solved. Lasting progressive political victory requires transforming understanding, but the immediate political incentives are aligned to discourage engagement with such a project.

http://www.thomaspalley.com/?p=115



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I could slit my wrists and people would cheer - L. Blankfein.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8jm61vk2....
2008-08-20 10:50:21
Bluntfacts
Posts: 693
Incept: 2007-10-09
Las Vegas, Nevada
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Great Ticker for Wednesday 8/20/08. Easily in the A range. Kind of reminds me of that movie where Jack Nicholson says "You can't handle the truth".

I can, because I see it. Even though I live in a very nice apartment complex, sometimes I see the repo man at night. Then I know someone "spent" too much on a vehicle and will wake up to an empty parking space. Their first thought will be the vehicle was stolen rather than accept responsibility for not making the payment.

Or how about when the family of five on the first floor gets evicted for lack of payment? But the kids always had McDonalds or Burger King; heaven forbid mom or grandmom actually cooked a meal. But when the constable shows up, it's LIGHTS OUT (literally). Then comes the crying and sobbing.

Or how about just driving around and seeing the For Lease signs at every major intersection? They are there, but most drivers are too busy talking on cellphones to even notice. Then one day, they go to their dry cleaners and its closed.

This are just things I notice. The local Greek restaurant tells me they may close on Saturdays due to lack of business. Not good. I receive no credit card applications in the mail (thank goodness; I used to get them from the SAME company I had an account with), but not good for those desperate for credit. Or I can just turn on the TV and see ad after ad for payday loans; auto loans; etc. Only 99% to 450% APR. Some friends I know have said that last item can't be. My response is let's bet on it; send me a blank VCR tape; and that they might as well enclose their losing bet, because it is the TRUTH. There's no reason to make this stuff up.

Anyway, let me finish up with some GOOD news. Karl...sharp tie.

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"Will someone come on TV and tell the truth about how bad it is". Jim Cramer August 2007.
"We can change the focus to a soft blur; or sharpen it to crystal clarity" The Outer Limits 1964.

Last modified: 2008-08-20 11:03:56 by bluntfacts
Reason: spelling errors

2008-08-20 10:58:44
Genesis
Posts: 66462
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Royal Flush!
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Anecdote - just a few minutes ago someone who I briefly dated (she decided we were incompatable) knocked on my door.

Her job evaporated and she's 2 weeks away from missing rent and being evicted.

With two kids.

Its a recession when your neighbor loses his job.

When you lose yours, THAT is a Depression.

She's freaked out and came by - to a guy's house that she decided wasn't a "good fit" for her - asking if I knew anyone who was hiring.

You know its bad when that happens.....

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I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife?
I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects
Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me
2008-08-20 11:04:11
Themortgagedude
Posts: 3343
Incept: 2007-12-17

saint louis
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The only thing wrong with todays ticker is that not enough Americans will get the chance to read it and ponder the consequences. Fine work Gen. Are you sure you're not The Lord of the Dark Matter?

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Since September it's just gotten colder and colder. There's less daylight now, I've noticed too. This can only mean one thing - the sun is going out. In a few more months the Earth will be a dark and lifeless ball of ice.
2008-08-20 11:18:24
Themortgagedude
Posts: 3343
Incept: 2007-12-17

saint louis
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Hey guys we might want to pass the hat around here. Lets get Karl a new tie.

Sad thing is that tie probably cost more than my best dress shoes.

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Since September it's just gotten colder and colder. There's less daylight now, I've noticed too. This can only mean one thing - the sun is going out. In a few more months the Earth will be a dark and lifeless ball of ice.
2008-08-20 11:27:09
Champagne
Posts: 8341
Incept: 2007-08-06
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Yeah, she was looking for someone (you) who would hire her to be a girlfriend/wife/whatever. LOL. She just needs to be taken care of obviously.

2008-08-20 11:27:09
Etz3l
Posts: 8658
Incept: 2007-06-26
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http://www.countercurrents.org/eriqat200....


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I could slit my wrists and people would cheer - L. Blankfein.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8jm61vk2....
2008-08-20 11:31:41
Weedthegarden
Posts: 379
Incept: 2007-09-11

Houston, Tx
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Excellent.....Excellent

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WeedtheGarden
"They who lack talent expect things to happen without effort. They ascribe failure to a lack of inspiration or ability, or to misfortune, rather than to insufficient application. At the core of every true talent there is an awareness of the difficulties inherent in any achievement, and the confidence t
2008-08-20 11:35:47
Panamax
Posts: 547
Incept: 2008-07-17

Sunnyvale
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We see and hear all the time the phrase "as a % of GDP" used to justify high levels of apparent debt

The USG says we have a $14T GDP, but "GDP" doesn't pay the bills -- national income does.

With 100M households, $14T GDP implies an average $138K household income.

However, USG says we have a ~$60K mean household income.

So when somebody says "as a % of GDP", DOUBLE the number they're talking about for a truer picture.

2008-08-20 11:41:45
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