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| User Info | Where We Are, Where We're Heading - 2009 Edition in forum [Ticker]
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Genesis Posts: 66462 Incept: 2007-06-26 
Royal Flush! 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/689-Wh.... One full bottle of booze - at least 80 proof - is recommended per-person before you click the above link. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me Last modified:
2008-12-31 11:36:45 by genesis
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Weezie Posts: 3420 Incept: 2008-05-19 
Now shuddap and take your medicine...
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Cracking open a new Jim Beam before I sit down to read this...
---------- The government isn't ****ing Santa Claus! 2008-12-31 11:35:31
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Ck_dexter Posts: 1147 Incept: 2007-07-19
SE PA
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Quote:Cracking open a new Jim Beam before I sit down to read this... yeah, seriously. ---------- "This market smells like ass" ~KD, numerous times, week of 11/9 2008-12-31 11:40:12
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Billb Posts: 851 Incept: 2008-02-10 
Chicago
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Seppuka -> seppuku. I have some old butter knives to donate.
---------- Mottram was an optimist. 2008-12-31 11:55:05
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Synchronicity Posts: 481 Incept: 2008-07-20
40° 15' 1
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Outstanding Karl! Thorough, honest and extremely well conceptualized. Too early for the booze, so staggering and dazed at the reality of it all, anyone who thinks about what they see around them and does their due diligence will not be surprised. I for one will be wearing my tinfil hat to welcome in the New Year! ---------- the forgotten man...."He is the man who is never thought of...He works, he votes, generally he prays---but he always pays..." Wm. G. Sumner, 1883 ...It took man 5000 years to put wheels on his luggage... 2008-12-31 12:01:52
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Margincalltime Posts: 811 Incept: 2008-04-01
NJ Online
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excellent work- Happy New Year! Not so happy for many out there, unfortunately.
2008-12-31 12:04:04
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Gwesten Posts: 496 Incept: 2007-07-04
Gulf Coast, AL
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Thanks, Karl. Happy New Year
2008-12-31 12:08:29
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Stoptheinsanity Posts: 125 Incept: 2007-07-12
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Great work Karl...thank you. Typo alert: look at what has happened ot the closed-end funds in 08! ---------- Goodness is the only investment that never fails - Thoreau 2008-12-31 12:10:13
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Samadams Posts: 339 Incept: 2008-12-03
San Antonio, TX
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Great work, Karl - concise and to the point, as it should be. Thank you - even though you are the messenger bearing bad tidings, the truth must be known, and the sooner we as a nation begin to heed your advice, the better off (or the less bad off) we'll be. As usual, your advice and observations are really just unvarnished common sense and basic economic knowledge - which are clearly out of favor in Washington and on Wall Street, as they have been for decades. I am with you in hoping that you are completely wrong, but in understanding that you will probably have a scorecard as close to 100% correct next December as last year's was today. I'm going to have to re-read this one several times to really absorb it. The real question is: will the American people wake up and force our (thieving, lying SOB) leaders to change things? And, of course, the market is UP as I type this. Talk about a disconnect from reality! Last modified:
2008-12-31 12:16:34 by samadams
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Jparks Posts: 486 Incept: 2008-04-07
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Karl, thanks to you and others on this forum, and in combination with my own reading and observations, I am well positioned going forward. No debt and lotsa lotsa cash. MADE money this year. I profoundly thank you all. Stay off the roads tonight guys, it's amateur night!!! ---------- "We used to be a country that made ****. Now, we just have our hand in everybody else's pocket." Sobatka, The Wire. 2008-12-31 12:12:44
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Digdouggler Posts: 2357 Incept: 2007-11-26
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Thanks for everything you shared with us in 2008, Karl. I hope many of your '09 predictions don't come to pass, but a good part of my money is betting otherwise.
---------- "The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, provides the nation with a safe, flexible, and stable monetary and financial system" 2008-12-31 12:19:06
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Digdouggler Posts: 2357 Incept: 2007-11-26
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Slight typo in your "first principles" section?:Quote:This is obvious and inescapable if you use your head; since debt must be repaid with interest, it therefore most"must"? Quote:deflate (decrease) the monetary base since interest is a non-productive "charge" against income and (thus) earnings. ---------- "The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, provides the nation with a safe, flexible, and stable monetary and financial system" Last modified:
2008-12-31 12:22:18 by digdouggler
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Muscleknight Posts: 2676 Incept: 2007-06-26 Columbia, SC
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I still think we end up in a hyperinflationary depression similar (but a whole lot worse than theirs) to Germany after their World War I defeat. We are being temporarily supported by foreign countries and when they withdraw their support we will try to print our way out.
---------- My Financial Avatars - http://s677.photobucket.com/albums/vv131.... The best lies have elements of truth. The fruit of abortion is nuclear war - Mother Theresa "Find a bank you hate and buy it" - Larry Kudlow 7-28-09 2008-12-31 12:23:22
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Alfredkroes Posts: 64 Incept: 2007-09-28
Amsterdam Netherlands Online
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Thanks Karl , for your excellent work! Happy New Year.
---------- Do not steal. The Government hates competition. 2008-12-31 12:24:24
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Ailujailuj Posts: 9088 Incept: 2007-08-22
NYC --->LA
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you know... i distinctly remember reading some threads and having discussions w/ a fellow TFer this exact time last year. and the craziness, absurdity of some projections for 2008. uttering these projections for 2009 would have prompted a ban from TF. i'm so tired of this pang in my stomach. thx for the ticker G. ---------- "Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end." ...courtesy of vegasgirl Last modified:
2008-12-31 12:25:00 by ailujailuj
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Genesis Posts: 66462 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Muscle, nope. Weimar's debt was denominated in foreign currencies. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-12-31 12:25:45
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Statusquojoe Posts: 2048 Incept: 2008-11-20
Land of the fees Home of the slaves.
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Wow thanks Karl! I appreciate what you are doing, wake up America! If anyone in AZ wants to take Karl's advice and do some freeway standing, email me through this site and let's get our heads together. Maybe standing by a Nappy-cam (Napolitano-cam) for some video coverage? 
---------- "The value of a man's opinion, is the price he has paid to have it." Author unknown. Last modified:
2009-01-01 01:46:17 by statusquojoe
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Viamede Posts: 463 Incept: 2007-09-17
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Congratulations (I guess as with 09 I would have preferred many more to be wrong) for your excellent calls on the last year and thanks for your 09 predictions. Have a very happy new year and best wishes for good health and happiness for you and yours in 2009. 2008-12-31 12:31:21
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Ponzi_unit Posts: 4152 Incept: 2007-09-05
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Thanks KD!
2008-12-31 12:32:07
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Pcscipioi Posts: 735 Incept: 2008-01-06
LVNV
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All who've been following your thinking for any amount of time should not be surprised by your prognostications, and I'd quibble with none.
2008-12-31 12:38:52
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Waverider Posts: 2665 Incept: 2007-12-23 Chicago Online
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laptop on my lap, chick fooling around and watching new year celebration, opened a new bottle.. Then gave it a serious reading, reread it, printed it, saved it on my desktop in a separate area for quick reference. Absolutely outstanding work KD
2008-12-31 12:39:16
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T2 Posts: 250 Incept: 2008-11-17
Los Angeles
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Thanks Karl! I've been looking forward to this since I found TF a couple of months ago. Now my girlfriend will be even more annoyed with me. (are you reading about the economy again!) is her current refrain. Now I'll have even more to read. ---------- ------------------------------------------ In California, no one can hear you scream. 2008-12-31 12:46:03
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Captbill Posts: 455 Incept: 2008-07-22
Arizona's West Coast
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Thanks for the time you have in that Karl and Best to You in 09. To me, that really seems like more of 2008, maybe a tad worse. Agree if you listen to almost EVERYONE on CNBS this recovery begins in about March.  While it won't be great--certainly not a Depression predicted (at least not my take on it, in other words, (do I sound like Bush here?) I thought it would be MUCH MUCHworse). Cheers to all. 
2008-12-31 12:50:15
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127001 Posts: 689 Incept: 2008-05-21
Online
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Any thoughts on shortages in 2009? Thats something I keep thinking about. When oil was north of 120 earlier farmers were selling cattle because they couldn't afford to keep them, now a shortage of beef is apparent because the numbers are not what our consumption is accustomed to. Even as demand falls and prices everywhere fall, the supply/demand curve is still out of balance for beef. When I hear of farmers who cannot get fertilizer, or seeds, or the like I am concerned about real shortages next year. As the baltic dry index is in a race to zero, imports from outside the USA keep declining. At some point a loss of production, loss of imports, and a bunch of americans who need to eat will clash. The same could be said for oil or gasoline as well, as oil drops in price many wells and explorations will be abandoned. This decreases the amount available for commerce ~ which turns into a shortage when it is needed. Then prices spike and people panic. 2008-12-31 12:50:54
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Genesis Posts: 66462 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Bill: There is a fair probability of an official declaration of a Depression in the 09 outlook. (The definition is a 10% cumulative decline in GDP from the top)
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-12-31 12:52:07
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