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| User Info | Unemployment Report FAR Weaker Than Claimed in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 71422 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/1272-U....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-07-30 11:19:16
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100percentprole Posts: 27 Incept: 2009-07-01 
San Jose, California
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Hm, I wonder at what point the BLS will start fudging U6 as well just to keep this information buried?
2009-07-30 11:31:17
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Dji Posts: 720 Incept: 2009-04-21 
Fleming Island Online
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Now can we officially call it Government Math? Gen catch any big fish in the gulf on you mini Vacation? ---------- What goes up Must come Down- Alan Parsons Project THE TRUTH HURTS! -Dji
2009-07-30 11:37:27
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Txdomer Posts: 968 Incept: 2007-11-07
Ding-dong, the Fed is dead!
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Karl, I thought they were counted up to 26 weeks. Where is the cut-off for counting documented? This article says it's 26 weeks: Quote:The Labor Department's data on continuing claims does not track people who are still unemployed after the guaranteed 26 weeks of benefits expire. Continuing claims are the number of people who request benefits after their first week. http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Inv.... Where do you get the data for the number of people that have exhusted unemployment? ---------- "Economics is not practiced as a science. Rather, it is a pretentious way to covertly promote political prejudices." - Fred Harrison http://renegadeeconomist.com
2009-07-30 11:39:09
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Fred_flintstone Posts: 5128 Incept: 2008-04-15
Online
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TX, I am looking for that right now. BLS tracks it but makes it very difficult to find. See this article for some info on how it has been distorted: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/0....
2009-07-30 11:40:43
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Marketpirate Posts: 788 Incept: 2007-11-30
New York
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Gen you are on a roll today. Keep up the good work 
---------- Make love, not loans.
2009-07-30 11:40:53
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Cjworkman Posts: 5610 Incept: 2007-08-22
Online
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state budgets will need to be done by the end of August. i'm gonna go ahead and guess that states are going to have to lay off a metric ton of state workers to balance the budget for 2010. ---------- Ben is going to create an equity bubble from excess liquidity that tops at 1200... and bottoms at 300. A bubble inside of bearish economic conditions, so that it never reaches new market highs and crashes far below the lows. - me
2009-07-30 11:41:40
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Mondocondo Posts: 3143 Incept: 2007-12-03
Miami Online
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So if the government figures don't show the truth, and none of the so-called experts are pointing out the bull****, what event or statistic is going to finally make the green shooters shut up?
2009-07-30 11:41:47
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Striker754 Posts: 142 Incept: 2009-07-09
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When does the new unemployment rate come out?
2009-07-30 11:42:07
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Clumsygardener Posts: 57 Incept: 2009-07-17
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From www.bls.gov/cps: Next Release: August 7, 2009 The Employment Situation for July 2009 is scheduled to be released on August 7, 2009, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time.
2009-07-30 11:56:13
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Eli Posts: 3844 Incept: 2007-09-10
Online
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This is one of those problems where it does them no good to under report it. Sure they are going to sell the line through the pump monkey's on CNBC but on main street the pain will still build and be felt.
2009-07-30 12:04:44
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Brain Posts: 52 Incept: 2009-06-29
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52 weeks? who's paying for the extended benefits? must be the feds, because most states simply do not have the reserves. either way, this is more debt to be paid back via fed & state taxes.
2009-07-30 12:07:31
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Bsaxberg Posts: 112 Incept: 2009-07-04 North Dakota
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Brain part of my understanding with the fed stimulus money going to states was if they took the programs and money the feds were only going to fund it for a year and then the state had to figure it out on their own. Im happy my state didn't take that part of the game.
2009-07-30 12:10:34
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Asimov Posts: 26700 Incept: 2007-08-26
east tennessee Online
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I want to remind everybody: Yet AGAIN, there's no trace of the 1.5+ million autoworkers laid off either perm or for the 3 month shutdown. Where the hell are THOSE unemployed in the stats? ---------- It's justifiably immoral to try to deal in a moral fashion with an immoral entity. If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
2009-07-30 12:12:39
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Pray4all Posts: 47 Incept: 2008-01-30
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Read through the report.. not sure where to find # 352,482 (people rolled off the 13 week program last week!)
2009-07-30 12:13:42
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Madashel Posts: 577 Incept: 2007-09-14
West Texas
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how many self employed and 1099 recipients are unemployed? They spend money and pay taxes as well. Is there any official count on us/them? Or is that only indicated when they show a decrease in quarterly tax receipts data?
---------- "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." - George Santayana "It is better to live for something rather than die for nothing." - George S. Patton
2009-07-30 12:21:29
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Eli Posts: 3844 Incept: 2007-09-10
Online
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Gawd, Bloomeberg has a headline on their website that says, "Initial Jobless Claims Increase, Total Rolls Unexpectedly Decline" This is a complete lie. There is nothing unexpected about the decline in total rolls. They were reporting last week this would start to happen as people reached the end of their benefits.
2009-07-30 12:33:02
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Berkleyreindeer Posts: 560 Incept: 2008-07-22 Minneapolis , MN
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total unemployment: attempt to trace total EMPLOYMENT and then do the subtraction. I found interesting websites yesterday showing the unemployment rates in MI and AK. Some areas show HUGE drops in total employment, but the unemployment rate does not do a corresponding increase because the pool looking for work shrunk. This is not an issue if a 61 yr old schoolteacher decides to retire. But when a machinist stops looking for work and starts being a handyman making 40% of his old pay, you have a slow motion train wreck. If I was a statistics junkie, which I'm NOT, I'd follow ADP reports and other stats that report total employment. Then compute the % drop, and add that to the low water mark on the unemployment rate. It wouldn't be perfect, but it would give a rough calc of the damage to the labor pool. ---------- It'll get worse. Just wait.
2009-07-30 12:35:13
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Trappped Posts: 73 Incept: 2009-02-13 Banned
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Markets are breaking out on this news, up better than 1.5% as I type. The government, the Fed, the banks and FASB made a collosal change in the game when they modified mark to market and magically made insolvent banks profitable. Companies beating by lowering the basket-ball hoop to the 3 foot level and wowing the sheeple with the never ending slam dunks. Now we have the economic data manipulated to suit where ever the pied piper wants to lead the masses. Don't you guys get it ? The stock market is totally detached from reality. The market is nothing more than a casino, a voting machine. Funnymentals don't matter. No amount of bitching and whining is going to change anything. People always want and NEED to BELIEVE everything will be OK. Anything else would mean the average Joe has to leave his comfort zone and actually do something constructive....that would hurt. The pain got to be so great that the people's defense mechanisms kicked in and shifted to denial. The general population doesn't care and doesn't want to face reality. Everything is an illusion and the masses are quite content to let the men behind the curtain keeping the show running. Disclosure: Not Long or Short ANYTHING. The markets can do whatever the **** they want for all I care. Last modified:
2009-07-30 12:55:37 by trappped
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Fred_flintstone Posts: 5128 Incept: 2008-04-15
Online
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Berkley, These are tracked monthly in the U3 vs. U6 numbers. They are in Table A.12 in the monthly report: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t.... Quote:NOTE: Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and Last modified:
2009-07-30 12:56:36 by fred_flintstone
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Berkleyreindeer Posts: 560 Incept: 2008-07-22 Minneapolis , MN
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fred: don't those who "drop off" drop off exactly from that report you mention? I'm not an employment expert by any means. ---------- It'll get worse. Just wait.
2009-07-30 13:08:24
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Fred_flintstone Posts: 5128 Incept: 2008-04-15
Online
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Berkley, neither am I, but here's my understanding: the report I cite has nothing to do with weekly unemployment insurance claims or dropping off those rolls. Weekly UI is not the same as monthly jobless #'s or monthly unemployment %. The latter two come out in the same report but are also different measures from each other with completely different methodologies (% UE is done by a household survey for example). The stat I showed above, U6 vs U3, compares traditional unemployment % (U3) to a broader metric (U6). Some consider U6 to be the "real" unemployment number as it includes all those discouraged workers etc. who fall off of or aren't captured by other ways to count. Last modified:
2009-07-30 13:22:01 by fred_flintstone
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Coolhandluke Posts: 5637 Incept: 2007-12-19
Out of the box
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It really saddens me to know that I am surrounded by liars.
---------- It's not that I'm lazy, I just don't give a **** anymore.
2009-07-30 13:33:34
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Fred_flintstone Posts: 5128 Incept: 2008-04-15
Online
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CHL, who you calling a liar?
2009-07-30 13:34:27
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1lumpsum Posts: 1731 Incept: 2008-02-01
Nashville
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Does everybody who does not find work in 13 or 26 weeks automaticly get extended benefits to 52 weeks? And at this rate the unemployment numbers will continue to decrease every month until the entire nation is pennyless and unemployed, but the official unemployment rate will be 0%. Green Shoots! Last modified:
2009-07-30 13:38:45 by 1lumpsum
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