Treasury Insanity In Support Of Grift [Ticker]

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Treasury Insanity In Support Of Grift in forum [Ticker]

Genesis
Posts: 71430
Incept: 2007-06-26

KD^2

http://market-ticker.org/archives/1356-T....

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"The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me

2009-08-20 11:30:17
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Cawoodruff
Posts: 55
Incept: 2008-04-17

how much is roll over?

2009-08-20 11:44:53
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Livinlite
Posts: 32
Incept: 2009-06-16
Seattle
Banned

John Michael Greer has a saying: Never expect a hallucination to obey the laws of gravity.

http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/

Gen- I love your writing and all you've done to expose the fraud, but I hope for your sake you aren't actually betting that anything's going to be done about it. We've passed the point of sanity.

Ever walked into a Frat Bar on a Saturday night after the big game and tried to get everybody to shut up, sit down, and listen to what you have to say?

Doesn't work.

That's what you're dealing with here. A bunch of drunk *******s.

Only way to get them to shut the hell up is to burn the whole place down.

Trying to shut off the taps or turn on the lights will only result in you getting your ass beat...and the party resuming shortly thereafter.

2009-08-20 11:45:59
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Stoverny
Posts: 250
Incept: 2009-02-25

I agree it is unsustainable, but I just can't imagine the US issuing this much debt without having iron-clad assurances beforehand from FCBs that it will be bought. They know what a failed auction would do.

2009-08-20 11:47:58
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Captbill
Posts: 485
Incept: 2008-07-22

Arizona's West Coast

With staggering numbers like that how can this sort of thing come out?

Quote:

Thursday, Aug 20, 2009 @09:17am CST

(Washington, DC) -- The nation's deficit won't be quite as big as earlier predicted, according to two government officials.

Both sources say the Office of Management & Budget will announce next week that the federal deficit will total one-point-58-trillion dollars.

That's some 262-billion dollars less than forecast in May.

The officials -- one from the White House and the other from the OMB -- also said federal spending in July was triple the figure for the same month a year ago.

They said efforts to pull the nation out of recession caused the spike in the deficit.

http://mystateline.com/content/fulltext/....

I just don't get it.

2009-08-20 11:49:08
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Reza30
Posts: 233
Incept: 2009-02-15

Karl,

There seems to be a lot of backdoor monetization of Treasury purchases, even though the program will "officially" end in October. This seems to be a coordinated effort by the central banks around the world to keep the US import economy alive for their exporting economies. It seems they (the central banks) are all in it together and each is trying to outdo the other with devaluing its currency.

This is a fantastic article to that effect: http://johngaltfla.com/blog2/2009/02/26/....

I wonder how long the game will continue too, but in this day and age it is too easy to create money in various forms and hide the trail.

Last modified: 2009-08-20 11:55:07 by reza30

2009-08-20 11:51:34
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Elliottwaver
Posts: 176
Incept: 2009-02-09
Banned

Meanwhile the Dow heads higher. Amazing what Wall Street can do with $1 trillion in hot money (monetary base):

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ser....

Course....this doesn't necessarily make the economy grow....although there's some wealth and confidence effect because of rising stock portfolios. But how far does that get you when there's a 3.5 debt-to-GDP ratio? Whether Bernanke likes it or not, the damage is already done, unless Uncle Sam is going to convince creditors to start wholesale debt forgiveness.

I guess the main issue is just how much bad debt the government is willing to monetize.....or, more so, how much America's creditors are willing to monetize by buying U.S. treasuries. If we can't sell our ruse to others, the printing press is already running.

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"If we can't recognize losses in a capitalist system we have no future." - William Black

"We will never really understand important economic events unless we confront the fact that their causes are largely mental in nature." - Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives The Economy

2009-08-20 11:52:11
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Ggg71
Posts: 27
Incept: 2009-06-03
Swampscott, MA

CaptBill,

What don't you get?

The federal government is operating exactly like the banks, in that it is keeping more and more of it's liabilities tucked away off the balance sheet, while it whistles dixie and tells you nothing is wrong.

The feds can not afford to let the banks fail, and have housing adjust at 50% off it's highs. Tax revenues would be decimated, while federal obligations would continue unabated. The country would be instantaneously insolvent.

Deflation is akin to death for people with debt. And who has more debt/obligations then the USA? (national debt, social security, medicaid, medicare, freddie/fannie, etc...)

2009-08-20 12:00:40
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Captbill
Posts: 485
Incept: 2008-07-22

Arizona's West Coast

Quote:

whistles dixie and tells you nothing is wrong

That part I DO get. The lying is just becoming so much more blatant now.

2009-08-20 12:12:16
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Baldy
Posts: 6555
Incept: 2008-05-16

Pittsburgh

Quote:

Estimated marketable borrowing
� $406 billion July-September
� $486 billion October-December

Marketable Treasury Coupon Flows $ Billions 
MaturingCoupon 

Date 
Maturing Coupon 
Securities           
(Excluding SOMA 
holdings) 
Coupon 
Payments 
Total   
Outflows 
August 15, 2009 61 27 88 
August 31, 2009 19 4 23 
September 15, 2009 15 1 16 
September 30, 2009 20 4 24 
October 15, 2009 14 3 17 
October 31 2009 21 4 25 
November 15, 2009 38 21 59 
November 30, 2009 21 4 25

http://www.treas.gov/offices/domestic-fi.... (� Large cash outflows
on August 15 and November 15 are due to interest payments and maturing 3-, 5-, and 10-year notes as well as Treasury�s last callable 30-year bonds}

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FY2011 Budget - Hist'l Tables (PDF 2.0 MB) http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2011/assets/hist.pdf 1996-2011 budgets: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/browse.html

2009-08-20 12:18:32
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Striker754
Posts: 142
Incept: 2009-07-09

Can someone explain the rollover with regards to treasury auctions?

2009-08-20 12:19:38
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Asimov
Posts: 26708
Incept: 2007-08-26

east tennessee

Quote:

Ever walked into a Frat Bar on a Saturday night after the big game and tried to get everybody to shut up, sit down, and listen to what you have to say?

Doesn't work.

Sure it does, you just have to "try" the correct way. One EXTREMELY effective way would be to stand in the exit and fire off a shotgun round to first get their attention. Then proceed with any good sales speech, you know, selling amway or something else equally pursuasive as you slowly wave the shotgun back and forth across the crowd.

You'll be AMAZED how easy it is to get them to sit down, shut up and attentively hang on your every word.

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It's justifiably immoral to try to deal in a moral fashion with an immoral entity.

If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.

2009-08-20 12:20:48
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Mrmachinist
Posts: 93
Incept: 2009-08-02
Cedar Park Tx

I get 197 billion can not go on much longer! Thanks Gen

2009-08-20 12:22:06
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Asimov
Posts: 26708
Incept: 2007-08-26

east tennessee

Stirker: If somebody owns a bond that matures at the same time as a new auction for the same duration, they can roll over the old one into the new one.

2009-08-20 12:22:24
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Striker754
Posts: 142
Incept: 2009-07-09

So basically you end up with the same bond/duration but the rate could be different?

2009-08-20 12:25:52
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Markjw
Posts: 106
Incept: 2008-10-01

"...The lying is just becoming so much more blatant now. "

To vector off that comment:

This whole probnlem is all about lying and always ahs been. Liars loans. People with $18,000/year income buying $1 million homes. $1 QUADRILLION in derivatives to hide (lie) about whats on the balance sheets. The Fed buying back Treasuries.

At some point the truth (reality) will self correct. The longer the lyng continues the more drastic the correction, and I think we are already in for a whopper. In theology this is the action of the four horsemen, and it has been long coming.

Last modified: 2009-08-20 12:29:58 by markjw

2009-08-20 12:29:20
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Asimov
Posts: 26708
Incept: 2007-08-26

east tennessee

Striker: Yes.

2009-08-20 12:31:25
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Abn0rmal
Posts: 2320
Incept: 2009-01-10

DFW

I borrow $100 from Bill so that I can pay my electric bill this week and promise to pay him back next week.

Next week comes along and I need $100 to pay my phone bill so I borrow $200 from James ($100 to pay Bill and $100 for the phone company).

The third week comes and I need $100 to make my rent payment so I borrow $300 from Ken...

Is that what is happening?

2009-08-20 12:31:31
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Mtdm
Posts: 106
Incept: 2009-07-23

Last time you posted these numbers and inferred an equivalent annualized issuance I disagreed with your number, figuring it was too high, given the relatively short term of the issues. For the same reasons, this time around I now figure your number is low. As I understand it, you calculated by assuming that they do this kind of an issuance every two weeks. I have done the same, but have reflected the duration of the issues. See calculations below. $5.1 trillion versus $13.6 trillion.

Of course, it might be more useful to include the previous weeks' numbers, and extrapolate over a slightly longer period, but my point was not to quibble with the precise result -- it's too damn big any way you slice it -- but to make sure that we are clear on what the numbers represent. i.e. it seems to me that some consideration should be given to the term when deriving these stats...

Issue Amount Issue Term (Months) Equivalent Annual Issue from this week if this week were repeated once every year
$27,000,000,000 12 $27,000,000,000
$42,000,000,000 24 $84,000,000,000
$31,000,000,000 3 $7,750,000,000
$28,000,000,000 84 $196,000,000,000
$30,000,000,000 6 $15,000,000,000
$39,000,000,000 60 $195,000,000,000

$197,000,000,000 $524,750,000,000

But you're asserting this is a fortnightly (every two week) event, so we multiply these numbers by 26, yielding

$5,122,000,000,000 $13,643,500,000,000

2009-08-20 12:32:46
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Knobcreek
Posts: 940
Incept: 2009-02-06

Near TN & VA, but not SC

Jbyer: Yeah...except even worse..there's the interest added to the principle borrowed. So your have to borrow $210 dollars from James ($110 to Bill P&I and $100 from the phone bill)...etc, etc. etc.

2009-08-20 12:35:27
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Lordhumongous
Posts: 1972
Incept: 2008-09-29

USA

They can't launder trillions of worthless non-Treasury debt into Treasury debt backed by the US Taxpayer without issuing trillions of dollars in new Treasury debt.

Just another looting operation folks, nothing to see here. Move along.

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Freedom. Is there anything it can't do?

2009-08-20 12:37:05
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Asimov
Posts: 26708
Incept: 2007-08-26

east tennessee

Mtdm: I think you do have a point, but not quite the one you're trying to make. You're right in that you can't just multiply a week's worth of issuance by 52 and get how much the annual total is going to be.

But the way you're going about it is incorrect too.

We need to know how much of it is getting rolled from previous purchases and how much isn't. The amount that is not being rolled (new purchases) could be multiplied by 52 to get an estimated yearly total.

If you buy a 6 month bill in jan and then roll it in june for the same amount, you've only really given that money to the government once, not twice.

I think that's right anyway. Shrug.

2009-08-20 12:41:46
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Reza30
Posts: 233
Incept: 2009-02-15

I love it when the market spikes up and spins numbers like this as positive. Folks, the U.S. tax payer is broke and can't fund the Treasury purchases or Wall Street bailouts with these massive layoffs. This is clearly debt monetization and all central banks know it, and are helping the U.S. through it. IMO, otherwise the massive Treasury issuance we have been witnessing would have collapsed by now.

Quote:

New jobless claims rise unexpectedly to 576K

WASHINGTON � The number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly for the second straight week, a sign that jobs remain scarce even as other data show the economy is stabilizing.

Many economists expect the economy to grow at a modest pace in the second half of this year, bringing an end to the longest recession since World War II. But jobs are likely to remain scarce and many analysts worry that persistently high unemployment could cause consumers to hold back on spending, threatening a recovery.

The Labor Department said Thursday the number of new jobless claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 576,000 last week, from a revised figure of 561,000. Wall Street economists expected a drop to 550,000, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090820/ap_o....

And another one:

Quote:

9% of all home loans are delinquent
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The number of Americans who have fallen at least 30 days behind on their home loan payments inched up slightly between the first and second quarters of 2009, but jumped 44% compared on an annual basis, according to an industry report.

That puts delinquencies at a record 9.24% of mortgages, according to the National Delinquency Report from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) That represents more than 4 million of the 45 million borrowers covered by the report.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/20/real_est....

Last modified: 2009-08-20 12:53:32 by reza30

2009-08-20 12:42:54
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Perfectstorm
Posts: 188
Incept: 2008-02-25

florida

What the hell kind of soul-selling deal are we making with China, Japan, Carribean to continue this insanity? Default or devalue can't be the only two options if they are still buying.

2009-08-20 12:59:22
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Logicaloutlaw
Posts: 614
Incept: 2008-01-23
Online

Asimov said:

Quote:

...Then proceed with any good sales speech, you know, selling amway...

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All the money you make will never buy back your soul. - Bob Dylan, Masters Of War

2009-08-20 13:01:53
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