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| User Info | Toxic Assets: Promise, But Also Peril in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/889-To....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-03-21 15:10:02
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Mezcal Posts: 838 Incept: 2007-08-04 
Benicia, CA
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Probably need to ban sellers from being buyers of ANY of the "assets." Otherwise I can envision JPM swapping securities with C for example. ---------- The state controller's office fired up a pair of printing presses... - LA Times
2009-03-21 15:25:21
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Immoral_hazard Posts: 622 Incept: 2008-03-14 The Center of the Motorcycling Universe..Colorado
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I'm waiting for the Goldman press release giving their opinion on this plan. If they are thunderous in their applause we know the game is rigged.
---------- Bin Laden should have become an investment banker...he could have done more damage and gotten a government bailout to boot
2009-03-21 15:27:55
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Clintb350 Posts: 237 Incept: 2008-01-19 Southern AZ
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Thanks for the insightful Saturday Ticker. Will the rules be published on a .gov website? WSJ? Also needed to show off my brand new avatar.
2009-03-21 15:33:51
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Jubber Posts: 4242 Incept: 2007-07-05 
UK Online
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so its rally time then???
---------- "War is God's way of teaching Americans geography." Ambrose Bierce "The Emperor realized that the people were right but could not admit to that. He though it better to continue the procession under the illusion that anyone who couldn't see his clothes was either stupid or incompetent." Hans Christia
2009-03-21 15:34:41
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Trappped Posts: 73 Incept: 2009-02-13 Banned
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Yeah, rally time....to da moon !!!!
2009-03-21 15:50:18
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Patentleathershoes Posts: 7642 Incept: 2007-09-13
Looking forward to PB&J time!
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Whoops!! Wrong thread.
Last modified:
2009-03-21 16:38:04 by patentleathershoes
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Icanhasbailout Posts: 2170 Incept: 2009-03-10
Imaginationland
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Wow a Zork reference... now that's old school
---------- I can has TARP? http://icanhastarp.com
2009-03-21 16:15:49
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Lemonaid Posts: 4782 Incept: 2008-01-20
Detroit Metro
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This requires the economy to grow into the tens of trillions of debt on the banks books through organic production. KD, you gave up on the idea or cramming down the debt? ---------- "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." Ludwig von Mises
2009-03-21 16:16:46
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Icanhasbailout Posts: 2170 Incept: 2009-03-10
Imaginationland
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@Immoral_hazard - no if clause needed; the game is rigged.
---------- I can has TARP? http://icanhastarp.com
2009-03-21 16:19:10
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Redfigures Posts: 705 Incept: 2008-02-24
State of Flux
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Yep. Private capital come and play but Pres. Obama gonna cap your pay
2009-03-21 16:29:37
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Eli Posts: 3844 Incept: 2007-09-10
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I am not holding my breath on this one. Everything done to date tells me that they are not interested in doing what is right, moral hazard is a virtue to these guys. BAC will be able to buy up its own bad loans for the express purpose of screwing the taxpayer.
2009-03-21 16:30:02
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Lemon, the two are disjoint things (cramdowns .vs. a program like this)
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-03-21 16:38:15
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Cjworkman Posts: 5615 Incept: 2007-08-22
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Here's a question... as an investor... how specific can you be about what "toxic" assets you want... is this like buying a unclaimed suitcase at the airport... or is this something where research can be done and the early bird gets the worm so to speak... i.e... I only want loans from recovering areas like DC, San Fran, Seattle.. etc. ---------- Ben is going to create an equity bubble from excess liquidity that tops at 1200... and bottoms at 300. A bubble inside of bearish economic conditions, so that it never reaches new market highs and crashes far below the lows. - me Last modified:
2009-03-21 17:17:41 by cjworkman
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Dirtysouth Posts: 2766 Incept: 2007-09-20
Love Truth Honour ॐ Banned
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This means we rally till September, right? [/sarcasm] ---------- Forest First...Trees Second Feb 9 ~ Mar 11 ~ Apr 09 ~ May 09 ~ Jun 07 ~ Jul 07 ~ Jul 22 ~ Aug 06 ~ Sep 04 ~ Oct 04 ~ Nov 02 ~ Dec 02 ~ Dec 31 Last modified:
2009-03-21 17:33:44 by dirtysouth
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Dashingdwl Posts: 4564 Incept: 2007-06-26
los angeles Online
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How does this work? Unless the private/public funds overpay for the assets, the sellers will get killed... wiped out. Most of your sellers are natural participants and are already in the market. ---------- Think Green Tip.
2009-03-21 17:43:25
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Trappped Posts: 73 Incept: 2009-02-13 Banned
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Not for Nothing, but all these plans seem like circle jerks of Paulson's original plan back in September. If the government is going to take up to a 97% stake, they might as well go all the way and buy these things outright. In the end the taxpayer is going to end up flipping the bill anyway via higher taxes and/or inflation. I think the Treasury is intent on ruining the free markets because they just keep changing plans like underwear. Like KD said a while back, stick with a plan, shut up,and give it time to work. I personally feel they should've done nothing all along. It just seems with every turn there is some hidden agenda with these guys. Like a bad used car salesman trying to exploit different angles.
2009-03-21 17:51:56
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Mrnome201 Posts: 598 Incept: 2007-07-24
NJ
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This plan is a piece of crap and I don't know why KD is saying that the plan by itself is not necessarily bad. The PRIME issue for all these plans including the Super-SIV and the original TARP is how these assets are going to be priced. So how are these assets going to be priced? If for example, cash flows for residential MBS are to be discounted w/ an assumption calling for AT LEAST a return to equilibrium in the house-price-to-income ratio (which the bright analytical minds out to demand), many of these securities will fetch a price where the seller will go belly-up as the assumptions behind the Level 3 marks are way too rosy otherwise the assets wouldn't be transferred from lower levels to Level 3. My verdict: HOUSTON WE STILL HAVE A PROBLEM.
---------- "Listen you ****ers you screwheads, here's a man who would not take it anymore, a man who stood up against the scum, the ****s, the dogs, the filth, the ****" - Taxi Driver
2009-03-21 18:03:05
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Cjworkman Posts: 5615 Incept: 2007-08-22
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Mrnome, The idea is to create a bid for these assets at least in part coming from private capital and not just the government... once some private money gets flowing into this space, maybe then some that aren't worth zero... maybe will have a bid.... even if that bid is 30 cents on the dollar... it's better than no market and zero. ---------- Ben is going to create an equity bubble from excess liquidity that tops at 1200... and bottoms at 300. A bubble inside of bearish economic conditions, so that it never reaches new market highs and crashes far below the lows. - me
2009-03-21 18:05:14
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Trappped Posts: 73 Incept: 2009-02-13 Banned
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One other thing. I think fundementally this does nothing or little for the economy in general. We DON'T PRODUCE ANYTHING !! Our wealth over the last dozen years or so was paper wealth. All we did was create paper and exotic derivatives off of paper, underwrite, package it and sell it/ trade it. The only productive thing we did was build houses, but for what ? So a family of four making 50k/yr could live beyond thier means in a 4000 sq ft McMansion ? So then some welfare Mom could move in to thier old house. Anyway, the Fed along with the Treasury is trying to cram more debt and/or credit down our throats. Isn't that what got us here in the first place ?!? They're pushing on a string big time !!! Like Karl said a while back, fixing the banking mess is easy. Let the zombies die so the healthy can survive and thrive. That's how capitalism has always worked. These intrigate schemes being proposed and written into law are nothing more than allowing speculative risks to be socialized while the gains from these endeavors are privatized for the elite few (think Paulson). That, and all the good ole boys being spared 100 yr prsion sentences.
2009-03-21 18:08:36
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Themortgagedude Posts: 3930 Incept: 2007-12-17
saint louis
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anybody still think my idea of giving everyone 40 thousand to pay down their mortgage still sounds so stupid. Better than this ****. You are gonna get gamed here. No doubt.
---------- "These are interesting times. We don't trust the government, we don't trust the legal system, we don't trust the media, and we don't trust each other! We've undermined all authority, and with it, the basis for replacing it! It's like a six-year-old's dream come true!"
2009-03-21 18:12:31
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Mrnome201 Posts: 598 Incept: 2007-07-24
NJ
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Quote:Mrnome, CJ - Yes, I understand that; however, how are you going to come up with the bid? Using the residential MBS example again, if the cash flow monte carlo model uses an 80% probability that housing prices are going to revert back to 3x income than many of these assets are worth 60 cents on the dollar. Do these banks have these assets marked at 60 cents on the dollar on Level 3? Highly doubtful. ---------- "Listen you ****ers you screwheads, here's a man who would not take it anymore, a man who stood up against the scum, the ****s, the dogs, the filth, the ****" - Taxi Driver
2009-03-21 18:15:38
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Signas Posts: 609 Incept: 2007-06-26 Reno
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Looks like a perfect conduit to wash dirty off-shore money clean tax free at a cost of only 3%. Without full Source of Funds disclosure let the illegal weapons trade, human trafficing, and drug dealing roll on and on. ---------- Carbon Credits "FOR SALE" Bring a wheelbarrow full of money!!
2009-03-21 18:15:44
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Phirang Posts: 8824 Incept: 2008-10-25
bar khoba's revenge
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Well, the only save left after this is outright printing money: .gov has given up every orifice to the bankster rapists.
---------- The Treasury can issue debt on your behalf because the State can and will stomp the wealth out of you and your family.
2009-03-21 18:21:33
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T2 Posts: 364 Incept: 2008-11-17
Los Angeles
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PJ O'Rourke once wrote that if the government is paying you to something you otherwise wouldn't do on your own, it's probably paying you to do something stupid. I just know that the taxpayer is going to get reamed in the end once again on this one while the guys who'll game it will walk away with all the money. ---------- ------------------------------------------ In California, no one can hear you scream.
2009-03-21 18:31:04
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