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| User Info | There Is No Unicorn That Craps Skittles in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 71390 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/711-Th....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-01-05 08:15:25
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Rickysa Posts: 293 Incept: 2007-08-22 
Southern Pines, NC
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I believe the idea that "money is debt" is a difficult one for many to grasp. Although not involved in the market, I learned the magic of compounded interest when setting up my retirement account (having read "Financial Planning for Idiots" so I'd understand a little of what was being told to me). Money as debt was a new issue for me.
2009-01-05 08:48:22
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Pinal Posts: 699 Incept: 2007-08-16 
Chicago
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"There Is No Unicorn That Craps Skittles" Didn't Obama give birth to one of these on Nov 4th? I could've sworn that he did judging by the sea change in attitude. I think they are called ****tles. 
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2009-01-05 09:02:52 by pinal
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Sondergaard Posts: 512 Incept: 2007-07-13
Big Trees
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It helps a LOT to communicate exponentials in terms of "time-to-double". For example, for APR's: 1% -- doubles every 70 years 2% -- doubles every 35 years 3% -- doubles every 23 years 4% -- doubles every 18 years 5% -- doubles every 14 years 8% -- doubles every 9 years 9% -- doubles every 8 years 19% -- doubles every 4 years 26% -- doubles every 3 years 41% -- doubles every 2 years This makes it much easier to comprehend inevitability. When CA home prices were going up between 15 and 25% a year, for example, was that sustainable? Could home prices keep doubling every four years? If I bought a $300k shack in LA in 2004, would it really be worth $2.4 mil in 2016? Uh huh. ---------- And it won't make one bit of difference if I answer right or wrong; when you're rich, they think you really know. --Fiddler on the Roof
2009-01-05 09:16:34
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Bozonian Posts: 14033 Incept: 2007-09-01
PFT - Pure F'n Tin
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Or you can graph it as a parabola and shrink the x axis just demonstrate how it takes off. I've said just about all that can be said about the "inflate out of it scenario" so I'll shut up about it (unless the backdrop changes drastically). After all, this is just a discussion. It's not like what we say here has much chance of being adopted by our politicians, though we might hope a really good, clever idea might. No one need worry that "Helicopter Bozonian" is going to get put in charge of U.S. monetary policy. ---------- I'm so depressed about outsourcing I called the suicide hotline and got a call center in Pakistan. They got all excited and asked me if I could drive a truck. Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice.
2009-01-05 09:23:09
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Sboady Posts: 50 Incept: 2008-03-02
Cape Horn Online
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People are just crap when it comes to estimating non-linear math. They need help: I just explain the "rule of 70", as I picked it up here (I think). 70 divided by percentage-increase-per-year = doubling time (approx). This I can explain to the whole 10% of people that can do approximate divisions without calculator  .
---------- ‘We Have to Go Spend Money to Keep From Going Bankrupt’ Vice President Joe Biden. Last modified:
2009-01-05 09:25:54 by sboady
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Wrldtrst Posts: 38 Incept: 2008-06-27 Chicago or Rio
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I swear to god as a member of 5 different exchanges standing on the floor for so many years I have heard some funny ass **** but the Unicorn crapping skittles is ****ing priceless!!!!!! Too bad, it's like Jesus, they will never stop looking up for it.
2009-01-05 09:27:38
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Lordhumongous Posts: 1972 Incept: 2008-09-29
USA
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What's this I hear about unicorns?
---------- Freedom. Is there anything it can't do?
2009-01-05 09:32:28
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Samadams Posts: 357 Incept: 2008-12-03
San Antonio, TX
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Compound interest, 8th wonder of the universe. Too bad most people don't understand it until the Chrysler building enters their hindquarters at Mach 5.
2009-01-05 09:44:17
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Lumpeninvestor Posts: 882 Incept: 2007-10-16
98072, USSA Online
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Here's another thing to help educate on exponential growth. http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcours....
2009-01-05 09:46:00
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Bluebird Posts: 524 Incept: 2008-05-02
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What is the choking point of our country? The national debt is up to $10,611,567,862,518. Last year appx $1 trillion was added, this year it could be $2 trillion. With the amount of money being thrown into this mess by Paulson and Bernanke, soon to be Obama too, at what point does it all collapse? When the debt is larger than our appx $14 trillion GDP?
2009-01-05 09:52:17
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Arcone Posts: 2094 Incept: 2008-02-09
NYCville
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Wrldtrst, Thanks to Slartibartfast here...I like the accompanying unicorn picture also. http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/ak....
2009-01-05 09:54:53
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Genesis Posts: 71390 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Uh, we've committed $7 trillion - before Obama - to the $10 trillion float.
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-01-05 09:54:59
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Cocoacash Posts: 40 Incept: 2008-09-27 Boston
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Last week during school break, I spent a fair amount of time 'teasing' the concept of compounding into my 10 year old nephew's noggin'. At this point I think I have him hooked and curious to know more; so have faith! Of course explaining the merits of delaying gratification went hand in hand with that process too. Gotta' rebuild/educate one at a time. Needless to say, it was ironic to see your last few tickers.
2009-01-05 09:55:39
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T2 Posts: 362 Incept: 2008-11-17
Los Angeles Online
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---------- ------------------------------------------ In California, no one can hear you scream. Last modified:
2009-01-05 10:02:54 by t2
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T2 Posts: 362 Incept: 2008-11-17
Los Angeles Online
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I found it! That bastard Kevin Costner had it.  ---------- ------------------------------------------ In California, no one can hear you scream. Last modified:
2009-01-05 10:02:25 by t2
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Bluebird Posts: 524 Incept: 2008-05-02
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Oh, all those bailouts, $7 trillion so far, so our debt is $17 trillion. And Obama wants to add $2 trillion more for the stimulus package. GDP $14 trillion. What is preventing a collapse now?
2009-01-05 10:04:21
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Moniteyes Posts: 2400 Incept: 2008-11-28 ny
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And the unicorn farts rainbows too. Gen, isnt it worth to note that the only way to dig ourselves out of this is to create real value and wealth? and to stop wasting money on make work projects that have not ROI? And how do we do this? Seems to me we need lower costs for the stuff we make and higher selling prices for the stuff we make. This means we need lower wages, lower housing costs, lower medical, more innovation, more new products with higher value. ----------
2009-01-05 10:10:19
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Genesis Posts: 71390 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Monit, you cannot grow our way out so long as the debt overhang exists. We tried that in 00-03. It didn't work. If we had defaulted all the bad debt in 00 FIRST it would have worked off that bottom, but that was considered a non-starter politically, so this was done instead. Now we have three times as much pain to take. We can try putting it off again, but if we do, the cycle time before it blows up again will be shorter (maybe 2 years?) and the destruction that time around is likely to be "end of political system" type-of-pain. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-01-05 10:17:27
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Swarf_maker Posts: 19 Incept: 2008-10-18 Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
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Quote:The power function is in fact the most important mathematical concept in the universe. It is the factor, standing alone, that dashes all of the dreams of politicians, engineers and the "pumpers" of various schemes alike. I think that you will find that most engineers understand exponential functions quite well. Any that have had their 'hopes and dreams' dashed as a consequence of not appreciating exponential functions of time probably were forced to find other work - on Wall Street perhaps. Now where is the reset button for the economy? Ah yes bankruptcy! ---------- "Eternal vigilance by the people is the price of liberty." Andrew Jackson
2009-01-05 10:28:52
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Coolmama Posts: 367 Incept: 2008-01-27 Gedney Drove End, UK
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I find the rule of 72 useful. I think it is simple enough to be taught to the over sevens.
---------- The point to carefully consider is whether any of the underlying problems that led to the crisis, most specifically excessive levels of debt and leverage, have actually been addressed rather than being hidden and papered over. Genesis 27 Nov 2009
2009-01-05 10:33:19
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Slyace Posts: 1061 Incept: 2007-10-02
Dallas
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Well, lotteries, Las Vegas, and many other things would not exist if most people understood basic math.
2009-01-05 10:38:29
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Olderobc Posts: 1580 Incept: 2007-08-01
Kenso, Philly
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http://www.innumeracy.com/
---------- "You can't always write a chord ugly enough to say what you want to say, so sometimes you have to rely on a giraffe filled with whipped cream." -Frank Zappa
2009-01-05 10:40:18
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Nobody Posts: 1057 Incept: 2007-11-26
Nowhere
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Love the ticker. You can't argue with it. Not even Bozonian ;) 
2009-01-05 10:41:21
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Lastchance Posts: 1132 Incept: 2008-11-19 Las Vegas
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Let's get down to brass tacks. "Default the debt" seems to be the theme. This is obviously happening to companies. Perhaps it will happen to political subdivisions. But I am going to ask again: what about the federal government? If the debt number is $24 trillion and we could by some miracle pay it down by $50 billion a year, MATHEMATICS tells me that is 48 years. If even if the debt number is $12 trillion, it is still 24 years. Someone. Anyone. How are we going to pull that off? A national lottery? Sell federal lands? ---------- "We don't quit. I don't quit" President Obama 1/27/10 Man, I would to have him in one of our poker games.
2009-01-05 10:45:20
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