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| User Info | The Thesis Continues To Validate: GE in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 71422 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/1227-T....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-07-17 07:21:27
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Deepsee100 Posts: 696 Incept: 2008-02-05 Paris
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Please let it dump today!!
---------- Other countries have their history. Brazil has football.
2009-07-17 07:23:40
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Asianbull Posts: 2184 Incept: 2007-09-03 
Online
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Without volume, negative operating leverage kicks in which leads to... higher unemployment which leads to ...lower volume...
---------- The root cause of all the world's problems is inflation. The only sound money in the world is commodities.
2009-07-17 07:37:42
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Judgesmales Posts: 1962 Incept: 2008-02-05
Las Vegas
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Can you say "double top?" As Gen said in last night's video, a rejection here could be huge, and based on this morning's earnings parade/charade, you've got to figure that's where we're bound. ---------- "The tradition of Festivus begins with the Airing of Grievances. I got a lot of problems with you people! And now, you're gonna hear about it." -- Frank Constanza "What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly; tis dearness only that gives everything its value." -- Thomas Paine
2009-07-17 07:55:26
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Stx_jay Posts: 958 Incept: 2008-04-06 
St Croix, USVI
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I think Kevin Depew's "Point of Recognition" phrase is key here. The concept of a severe and prolonged economic contraction is something that just does not compute at the sheeple level. It can't because it is taken as an American birthright to wallow in hyper-consumerism-- i.e., live far beyond your means. Now the Fed, Treasury, states and municipalities sure know what this means and at least on the federal level, are throwing trillions at the deflationary flat spin to buy months of "normality". Most concerning is that the debt money concept that has seemed to have worked so well since WWII will come undone if constant growth is stopped. The "Point of Recognition" must be delayed at all costs. Psychologists would call this "magical thinking", but we call it public policy. Joe Biden's recent quote of, "we need to spend to avoid bankruptcy" comes dangerously close to giving the whole game away. ---------- Let's sing along to the old AC/DC song, shall we? Cos I'm / TNX / I'm Dynamite / TNX / And I'll win the fight / TNX / I'm a power-load / TNX / Watch me explode Last modified:
2009-07-17 08:08:45 by stx_jay
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Baja Posts: 77 Incept: 2009-06-03 Outback Texas Banned
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Your comment about "normal recessions" hit home. I have a friend who I argue with incessantly. He keeps calling this a "recession" and comparing it to 2000. He also watches CNBC all day. I don't have cable, so I don't see any of it unless it's posted to a blog. I noticed INTC sales were down 25% too quarters ago. Intel products are used by hundreds of companies. If they're shipping less, then so is everyone they supply. Same thing last quarter....down 25%. This quarter they were actually up 10% sequentially, but still down significantly from last year. I follow hundreds of companies. My formal training is in finance (MBA). It does appear we are stabilizing, but we are stabilizing at between 70% and 80% of prior levels. A 1% growth rate means that we will get back to where we were in 20 years, all things being equal Unfortunately, there is a whole new wave of foreclosures coming. We will plateau for 6 months to a year and then the sickening, grinding plunge to rock bottom will begin. The stock market may lead. If you watched the old RoadRunner cartoons, think of it like this. Wlie E. Coyote runs off a cliff. He doesn't realize he's in mid air for about 5 seconds. Then he falls thousands of feet to a ledge. He breathes a sigh of relief. That's where we are now. Then he hears a cracking sound and a concerned look crosses his face. About 5 seconds later the ledge breaks off the cliff and he falls another 1000 feet. That's our future. You are 100% correct Karl. Keep preaching. The more people you reach, the better chance we have of saving this country from the pirates.
2009-07-17 08:09:24
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Language_games Posts: 867 Incept: 2008-02-09
St. Louis
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Its also a demand issue, irrespective of the banks ability to lend profitably. People are much much less interested in borrowing. The psychological impact of the the drop to 666 has made a lasting impression and changed the consumer's comfort zone to a willingness to spend here and there, but not all the time, like before. Maybe a good analogy is going on a diet. If you go on a diet and lose 10 pounds you might treat yourself to something off your diet, but if you need to lose 20-25 pounds you know you can only have that treat once. The consumer's "diet" is still fully in effect. ---------- "It's not faith, it's work" Sister Helen Prejean - Dead Man Walking
2009-07-17 08:28:40
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Baldy Posts: 6555 Incept: 2008-05-16
Pittsburgh
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Nothing to argue with. GE numbers particularly disturbing given they are a cross section of mfg. Typo here at wen Quote:freight carloadings are down nearly 25% year over year, wen ---------- FY2011 Budget - Hist'l Tables (PDF 2.0 MB) http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2011/assets/hist.pdf 1996-2011 budgets: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/browse.html
2009-07-17 08:29:55
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Judgesmales Posts: 1962 Incept: 2008-02-05
Las Vegas
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Quote:Now the Fed, Treasury, states and municipalities sure know what this means and at least on the federal level, are throwing trillions at the deflationary flat spin to buy months of "normality". ... The "Point of Recognition" must be delayed at all costs." At least until winter, when it's too cold for the hungry proletariat to riot. And no, I'm not being facetious. ---------- "The tradition of Festivus begins with the Airing of Grievances. I got a lot of problems with you people! And now, you're gonna hear about it." -- Frank Constanza "What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly; tis dearness only that gives everything its value." -- Thomas Paine Last modified:
2009-07-17 08:36:38 by judgesmales
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Mo Posts: 5501 Incept: 2007-06-26
Florida
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Quote:Psychologists would call this "magical thinking", but we call it public policy. Oprahism. ---------- "The World has been cancelled. It doesn't even look like the world. There is one island that is maintained and is said to be owned by the Sheikh and the rest looks like a pile of muck."
2009-07-17 08:35:33
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Nirvan45 Posts: 1578 Incept: 2007-10-31
florida
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I see no thread for C report so I vent out here Media has a mandate to sell good news and that's it Bloomberg reported C report and announced just the headlind of 30 bil rev and eps of 49 and they stayed with that for 5 min befor coming and reporting actual rev again They have missed Now coming back to gen's claim, when you sell your profitable asset where your future earning will come from? Again media in 2000 they had so many call for first half then second half recovery, til it finally come true you have not forgot that have you This time is no diffrent, they will continue to make the call, til not many can afford to pay electric/ cable bill, or it comes true Last modified:
2009-07-17 08:37:49 by nirvan45
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Bozonian Posts: 14033 Incept: 2007-09-01
PFT - Pure F'n Tin
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It's called "eating your seed corn".
---------- I'm so depressed about outsourcing I called the suicide hotline and got a call center in Pakistan. They got all excited and asked me if I could drive a truck. Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice.
2009-07-17 08:53:12
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Pelle031 Posts: 144 Incept: 2009-03-24
Philly burbs - PA
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the GE Capital side of things is what most concerns me for the overall future of this company. 80% drop in "profits" this quarter which is undoubtedly worse in truth. scary ****. While it was somewhat heartening (as a GE Supplier) to see the energy-infrastructure business actually fare pretty well (revenue down 1%, profits up 13%) this quarter, I believe they'll now see the same 30%++ trend in future quarters as they were living off older contracts that their customers weren't able to 'push out'. Most of that is over now so the real ugliness will likely show up come October. That's why of course they are making such a big 'green' push. They see an opportunity for another division to suck off the government teat.
2009-07-17 09:08:48
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Onchaos Posts: 70 Incept: 2008-10-09 Virginia
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MSM has the "it's gotta get better or we're screwed" mentality, encouraged no doubt by the big players that earn their living off of fees, not performance. One wouldn't really expect much more from them. Couple of mornings of CNBC going, we're screwed, we're screwed, would probably see them closed down by the FCC, for fair and unbiased reporting, I mean fear mongering. One of my biggest customer's currently off 35% on sales YTD. This is a major "machine manufacturer". They've kept their heads above water this year as a result of back orders, but are now looking into the great abyss sans orders to keep the work force gainfully employed. ---------- Freedom is chaos - give it to me anyway! Last modified:
2009-07-17 09:14:50 by onchaos
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Widgeon Posts: 6525 Incept: 2007-08-30
OK
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With regards to the 30% ... just think what it would (and will) be if gov spending wasn't what it is ... easily in the neighborhood of a 50% contraction; ON THE TABLE. Gov spending is keeping things artificially supported, even at this level.
2009-07-17 09:18:08
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Alphaomegadebt Posts: 10 Incept: 2008-09-20
Minnesota
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I'm doing my best to avoid purchasing GE products, which is not an easy feat when you're shopping for lightbulbs. Ever try try to purchase a competing brand of lightbulb (Sylvania, Philips, etc.)? Good luck if you're at your local Target store (at least where I live in MN). Their lighting supply is all GE -- no competing brands whatsoever. So I decided to hold off on lightbulbs until I can visit my local home improvement store (Menards, Home Depot, for example). Pretty sure one can still purchase a non-GE lightbulb -- I hope anyway. Obviously, we as consumers aren't consuming like we used to due to layoffs, erosion of wages (reduced pay or reduced hours), less available consumer credit, and many other factors associated with (this) economic recession. But, is there even the slightest possibility of a contributing factor to the dip in GE's revenue coming as a result of consumers who are actively boycotting their products? Last modified:
2009-07-17 10:27:29 by alphaomegadebt
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Ptoemmes Posts: 79 Incept: 2009-04-13
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I'd love to score a Harley TriGlide - at 30% off - before it's too late, but let me assure you that Harley dealers (Rossmeyer anyway) are still pricing like it's 2006. Gen - I this is not too off topic (trying to respect your guidelines), but Krugman - while occasionally controversial ;-) - seems mostly right in his latest Op Ed: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/17/opinio.... " Over the past generation — ever since the banking deregulation of the Reagan years — the U.S. economy has been “financialized.” The business of moving money around, of slicing, dicing and repackaging financial claims, has soared in importance compared with the actual production of useful stuff. The sector officially labeled “securities, commodity contracts and investments” has grown especially fast, from only 0.3 percent of G.D.P. in the late 1970s to 1.7 percent of G.D.P. in 2007. " Pete
2009-07-17 10:33:35
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Mayorquimby Posts: 5868 Incept: 2008-09-18
Ponzi Planet
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Hockey stick recovery.
---------- It's a PONZI ECONOMY and it already HAS collapsed. Now they need more ponzi!
2009-07-17 11:50:57
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Murf Posts: 2811 Incept: 2007-08-28
the surf Online
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You're right, Gen. The people who have bought the CNBS argument that this is a simple, typical recession have a surprise coming. And, boy, will they be ****ed - watch out CNBS. You didn't even mention the growing contraction in State, County, City and school systems. In CA they are demanding 26 day furloughs for the coming year at the state universities. That's over 5 weeks unpaid. If the unions don't agree, the layoffs will be massive. ---------- The recovery up is losing steam
2009-07-17 11:57:06
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Frat Posts: 150 Incept: 2009-07-15 NKY
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Quote:At least until winter, when it's too cold for the hungry proletariat to riot. And no, I'm not being facetious. Judge, no offense, but even great lazy American WILL riot if they're hungry. I completely agree they're pushing it through the summer months... honestly, I was expecting to see more civil unrest this summer, but hey, 'America's Got Talent' is on - they're covered for now.
2009-07-17 12:03:39
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Gizmodo Posts: 1146 Incept: 2009-04-15
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Karl, concerning the banks; do you see any long-term possibility besides BK for all of the majors? If you're right and they can't earn/fee their way out of the losses (and I think you are right), what could the alternative possibly be? I suppose we could print away the debts, but that's just going to shift the banks' problems to another area (out of control spreads) and will probably have the same outcome: BK. In other words, they basically sunk their ships when the all the junk loans were initially made, it's just a matter of how long it takes until they pay the piper. I wonder if JPM and/or BAC could have survived if not for the Bear/Merrill shotgun marriages... ---------- "Hide the decline": the policy of climate fraudsters and government fraudsters alike. Can't you see? It all makes perfect sense, expressed in dollars and cents...
2009-07-17 12:15:54
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Kab Posts: 628 Incept: 2009-04-02 Colorado Online
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I believe it's been a fairly widespread belief that the next major downturn was likely to be in the fall this year around here. Looks like things are still shaping up for that. Works for me, the summer has bought enough time to get certain things in order.
2009-07-17 12:45:40
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Antoine Posts: 3 Incept: 2008-07-22
Toronto
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This is my first post so hope it works. I keep going back to Jesse Livermore; his life experience is the most relevant to todays; what with the bucketshops, the manipulation, the graft, the corruption and the outright arrogance of the "rich". Jesse would luv this market, the economy is sinking but the mkt. itself is awesome for trading. However, this circumstance also is bleak, bleak, bleak for the Republic for the American people...... ---------- Silentium est Aureum
2009-07-17 22:36:29
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Mlshawaii Posts: 466 Incept: 2009-05-13
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Karl, I was reading this ticker when I looked up and saw you on tv! I almost fell off the couch. I can't believe Kudlow had you on. You were great, and I loved it when you threw out the "What if we've already seen it?" at the very end. That was smart and quick. I wonder what CNBC is up to, letting some truth out this week. Any ideas? Please keep up the great work.
2009-07-18 00:29:38
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Jata1 Posts: 2378 Incept: 2009-03-08
mi
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Advertising rev at NBC Universal down 41%. Time for some cuts at CNBS- where to start?
---------- Mayorquimby says- My Idea- Everyone gets Dick
2009-07-19 08:13:34
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