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User Info The Most Important Ticker You Will Read This Year in forum [Ticker]
Genesis
Posts: 71432
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
KD^2
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http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archi....

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"The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me

Last modified: 2008-06-29 01:15:48 by genesis

2008-02-12 09:12:19
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Emdeplam
Posts: 1419
Incept: 2008-01-10

USA/Germany
Online
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Thanks Gen,

As always you provide such a fantastic site here with great insight. I downloaded the PDF! Amazing (and scary) times we are living.


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http://www.alizee-forum.com/gallery/
2008-02-12 09:28:57
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Ukvipersden
Posts: 1241
Incept: 2007-12-01
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Gen, I am relatively new to this forum and I don't even pretend to understand all/many or the arguments put forward. But I absolutely agree: THE most important ticker thus far you have put forward. Dow up (as I write) plus 60 (all other European indices doing well also this morning/afternoon). You have repeatedly said (if I understand correctly) that we have not had Fear in the markets as yet (as measured by the Vix or otherwise), and I agree with this also. I really do wonder at what point Fear will stump Greed (or stupidity!). Are we on the edge of a cliff...and when is everybody gonna jump....Super ticker, superb forum:)

2008-02-12 09:43:25
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Genesis
Posts: 71432
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
KD^2
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Essentially everyone in the market on the equity side (and commodities) has been proceeding from the premise that The Fed (and other central banks) are "injecting huge amounts of money" and "hyperinflating."

They're wrong. Its that simple.

The proof is on the table right there.

You can't argue with the actual data. There simply is no longer any point in having this debate, and I am not going to participate in any furhter debates on this subject, as this has now come down to trying to debate over whether or not you can get pregnant by having sex.

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"The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-02-12 09:46:02
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Ukvipersden
Posts: 1241
Incept: 2007-12-01
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^^Agreed Gen; my question was really rhetorical; I wasn't arguing with the premise of your line of reasoning: as you say, it's now black and white :)

2008-02-12 09:55:15
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Stormsailor1981
Posts: 8449
Incept: 2007-06-26
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questions of a confused mind, soma is comprised of t-bills, t-notes&bonds, and t-indexed securities. and they are definately dropping per your published chart and per the historical charts on the fed sight.

why do some of the t-notes&bonds have 12 and 13 handles on them?



Last modified: 2008-02-12 10:28:02 by stormsailor1981
Reason: sp

2008-02-12 10:27:23
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Bubblesee
Posts: 3768
Incept: 2007-06-27

nyc
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Great ticker and forum thread!!!

My question based on what we now know is going on is:

Are the biggies covering their shorts in many of our favorite HB's, banks, retailers, insurers etc. to raise cash?

Will they continue to do so and will this prop up the prices of these postentially insolvent companies???







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Ticker Forum Special:
"Bennie and the Feds" Melody:Elton John Lyrics:Bubblesee
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etfVMtCq9Oc
(Larry Kudblow eat your heart out)
2008-02-12 11:10:42
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Architect
Posts: 780
Incept: 2007-07-11

london UK
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So the fed is prepared to let the primary dealers fall over if they don't have the collateral. It looks as though the fed is being mighty tough. I find it hard to believe that Ben has real teeth and that he is using them to bite the big banks, but the Citi loan says that I am wrong

2008-02-12 11:15:46
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Genesis
Posts: 71432
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
KD^2
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Ben has no choice.

He is not about to take The Fed down. If that was to happen it would be forced into Congress' lap - involuntarily.

Ain't gonna happen, because that causes an explosion in the Treasury Market, and the government cannot afford it.

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"The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-02-12 11:18:30
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Steelpiston71
Posts: 2015
Incept: 2007-09-05
Michigan
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fyi, to put this reduction into historic perspective, the 2007 SOMA decrease was the first reduction since 1989.

The 1989 SOMA reduction can be viewed on page 7 of this document: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/om....

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"The Data Do Not Lie", Mr Mortgage (aka Hedgefundmanip), April 16th March Foreclosure Crisis Video.
2008-02-12 12:51:41
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Ukvipersden
Posts: 1241
Incept: 2007-12-01
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^Since 1989! .....Meltdown.

Last modified: 2008-02-12 13:00:58 by ukvipersden

2008-02-12 12:59:00
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Ludanjack
Posts: 1343
Incept: 2007-07-29

Ft. Lauderdale
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Quote:
Ben has no choice.

He is not about to take The Fed down.


Good grief...talk about Frankenstein being destroyed by his own creation...

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"This is only something that can be fixed after we kill all the players that carry the virus, because the virus only dies when the host is dead. The hosts are the sick financial institutions being run by crooked executives, regulated by incompetent regulators, appointed by blissfully ignorant politicians and at the end
2008-02-12 14:09:13
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Ludanjack
Posts: 1343
Incept: 2007-07-29

Ft. Lauderdale
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Quote:
In fact, The Fed is actually taking down risk, as I have said repeatedly, and de-leveraging not only their own balance sheets but they are also forcibly taking down risk in the primary dealers - whether they like it or not!


KD,
The implications of this are huge. Essentially, the FED sees a CAT 5 hurricaine approaching, or already upon us, and are storing food and water and putting up their storm shutters, while the rest of us are going about our merry way. The worst part is that they should be the national hurricaine center and be warning us when instead, if you are correct, they are INTENTIONALLY MISLEADING US TO BETTER THEIR OWN PREDICAMENT!

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"This is only something that can be fixed after we kill all the players that carry the virus, because the virus only dies when the host is dead. The hosts are the sick financial institutions being run by crooked executives, regulated by incompetent regulators, appointed by blissfully ignorant politicians and at the end
2008-02-12 14:43:21
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Genesis
Posts: 71432
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
KD^2
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They're not misleading anyone!

The data is PUBLIC.

If you choose to listen to CNBull****, who's fault is that?

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"The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-02-12 15:11:48
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Truthseeker
Posts: 2016
Incept: 2007-10-07
A True American Patriot!
NW US
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Karl,

I know your stuff is copy-righted. If excerpts are posted elsewhere on the net with full attribution and a link to the blog-page, do you have any objection to salient points being spread around?

Today's ticker is as clear and straight-forward as you've ever been. Great stuff.

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"The real leech****s are not the welfare people, but the paper shufflers in privileged positions who are skimming the money flows."
"
~ Bozonian
2008-02-12 15:17:41
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Genesis
Posts: 71432
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
KD^2
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No problem whatsoever, so long as it is properly attributed, not changed, and linked back to.

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"The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-02-12 15:24:52
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Maple
Posts: 4461
Incept: 2007-09-03

Southern California
Online
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Already seen posted at Gary Savage's.

2008-02-12 15:35:41
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Mtgspy
Posts: 6122
Incept: 2007-10-27
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Gen, I have a gift for you: (picture loading)

That's cold hard cash for you guys monetary deflationary.

BUT ....

While I am still a short seller - On the economic front I have now embraced the MASS BAILOUT theory from one SINGULAR point of view: Government policy missteps due to lack of knowledge and theoretical experiments gone wrong.


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It sounds antiquated, merchantilistic - until you figured out that I was hoarding for war.

Last modified: 2008-02-12 16:37:06 by mtgspy

2008-02-12 16:34:06
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Ajas
Posts: 1647
Incept: 2007-08-28

Seattle, Zootown
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Regarding the common assertion that "the Fed takes crap collateral." On Page 21, they describe how they value the collateral:

Quote:
The Desk selects from propositions across the three tranches according to the attractiveness of bids, measured relative to current rates in the financing market for each particular class of collateral. Benchmark rates for this purpose are based on an internal daily survey of financing rates paid by the primary dealers. Overall, in recent years the distribution by collateral tranche of outstanding RPs has been weighted heavily toward the Treasury tranche (Chart 13). This pattern continued to hold in 2007, until financial market strains appeared in short-term funding markets. At that point dealers’ propositions against agency and MBS collateral tranches that it accepts on its RPs became more attractive on a relative basis.

In August, the Desk arranged three RPs with a single tranche—the third category under which agency MBS securities along with the other collateral types are eligible. In order to reduce operational complexity, this step was taken during a period of extreme market volatility and at a time when market quotes with which to benchmark propositions for different collateral tranches were not available. Despite the desire to reduce operational complexity, the choice to use a single-tranche in these operations, at a time when there was considerable market focus on non-agency mortgage-backed securities elicited some confusion about exactly what types of collateral were eligible.


Note that this applies only to Repos, not discount/TAF lending, and that non-agency MBS collateral has disappeared from the Repo scene altogether now.

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"It takes the hoople-heads time to adjust. Sometimes I wish we could just hit em over the head, rob em, and throw their bodies in the creek."

"But that would be wrong."

2008-02-12 17:03:52
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Falcor
Posts: 462
Incept: 2007-12-03
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To better grok this, be sure to read the conversation Gen mentions at:

http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/ak....

What fun future historians will have if our conversations here remain available. A stunning historical example of cognitive dissonance and madness of crowds -- and we're seeing it "live."

Through this likely trauma, I (so far) remain powerfully optimistic -- as in old growth has to fall and rot to make way for new growth. And it seems that we won't have to endure a long rotting phase once the old growth falls -- that's already taken care of.

Thanks for this place, Gen.

2008-02-12 17:04:16
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Anti
Posts: 1289
Incept: 2007-10-09
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I am still trying to visualize how the System Open Market Account is used.

Here is a place to start, what the Fed itself says about it:
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/soma/s....


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2008-02-12 17:27:05
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Brandk3
Posts: 177
Incept: 2007-11-11

Phoenix AZ
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are we getting the technicals today?

2008-02-12 17:48:56
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3600
Posts: 1031
Incept: 2007-12-01

Michigan
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I am far from an expert in Fed policy but I did read this report and not in the bathtub. Two things that I got from it are this quote:

Quote:
Beginning in August 2007, the Desk’s general operating procedures were less effective than they had been in recent years in maintaining the fed funds rate around its target, reflecting market developments that exerted upward rate pressures that emerged in the overnight market and the Desk’s response to these pressures. In the first maintenance period in which these pressures appeared, the period ending August 15, the Desk effectively suspended its normal approach to controlling the funds rate. In order to combat severe and persistent upward rate pressures that were threatening to become even more deeply embedded in market expectations, the Desk provided a level of excess reserves significantly above any amount banks would have chosen to hold at rates anywhere around the target. This extraordinary measure was taken in order to restore a more normal balance between risks of upward and downward rate pressures. In subsequent maintenance periods, the Desk returned to a more normal approach for providing period average levels of reserves.


Like I said I do not understand much Fed speak but the words significant and extrodinary catch my attention. Also standing out to me was the chart on page 21 showing the amount of MBS and AGY the Fed is holding. They have gone from and average of 60% or more of TSY to 32% and the amount of collateral they are holding has almost doubled from around 25 bil. to 45 bil.

No doubt to where all the bad paper as gone in the last quarter. It is sitting in the vault of the Fed. The unfortunate reality is that until JSP and CNBS chooses to acknowledge this fact the impact will not be consequential.




Last modified: 2008-02-12 18:43:30 by 3600
Reason: spelling errors

2008-02-12 18:41:02
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Shortqqq
Posts: 314
Incept: 2007-07-20

las vegas
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KD,
I am firmly in the deflationary camp as I see massive destruction of dollars and the ability to access dollars contract daily. What is your take on the performance of the dollar during a deflationary spiral?

2008-02-12 19:36:12
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Genesis
Posts: 71432
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
KD^2
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Dollars increase in absolute value during a deflationary spiral.

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"The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-02-12 20:01:17
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