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Genesis Posts: 71421 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/1475-T....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-09-29 11:33:36
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Mikeri Posts: 140 Incept: 2007-10-04 
Natchez, MS
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I love it when you talk math. It's what sets you apart.
2009-09-29 12:00:52
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Todaystomsawyer Posts: 512 Incept: 2008-10-13 Boerne, TX Online
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Well, it has been the failure of at least 10 years, maybe more, to address the mathematics of the over-revving debt machine (along with shipping jobs overseas) that has landed us exactly where we are. And yet, it is still ignored and appears it will be until everything burns to the ground (metaphorically).
---------- Survival is the best Revenge
2009-09-29 12:09:07
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Jollycholly Posts: 32 Incept: 2009-09-08 Banned
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The Boomer buy and hold retirement trade is very crowded. It may look good for a few more years or even a decade, but at the end of the day there's no there there. My father set up a trust for the family, mostly real estate, and I fully expect it to be essentially worthless with in a decade. Its already crashed from 5M down to 2M.
2009-09-29 12:16:33
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Wisc-xc Posts: 4824 Incept: 2007-07-14 
outside chicago
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Who butters Hagen's bread? At best, tangentially, the fraudsters themselves? Wouldn't a screed regarding the failure of the mainstream financial media be more fitting given their relative scope/weight and egregious failing every step along the way? It's easy to plumb who a man's friends are given his enemies. What a *****.
2009-09-29 12:17:07
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Goodtimesforme Posts: 14 Incept: 2008-07-15 SLC, Ut.
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Karl Your focus is intense. It seems the event horizion is upon us and you grill down on it. Great group of Posts today, and every day.
2009-09-29 12:17:19
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Steelhead23 Posts: 387 Incept: 2008-09-09 Portland OR
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Animal spirits man, its all about animal spirits. MSM, politicos, and some traders are doing everything they can to pump-up our greedy animal spirits. They want us to buy baby buy. We don't need no stinking math - give us red meat - pump us up - make us rich - then run for the exits. Get with the program. All this negativism is giving me a headache. To hell with waiting for the fall ... I'm gonna go out and buy something. Sixth grade math? Hell, I was too busy looking down Sandy Higgins' blouse to learn math in 6th grade.
---------- short em all - let God sort em out!
2009-09-29 12:24:40
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Mondocondo Posts: 3141 Incept: 2007-12-03
Miami Online
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KD, you will soon get your chance to use this article as the poster child for the very point you are making. The article will probably mark the top of the market for years to come.
2009-09-29 12:27:20
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Karens Posts: 34 Incept: 2009-04-20 Georgia
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I don't know anyone living in the real world who thinks things are getting better. Every day I drive by strip malls where more and more stores are closing up shop. While America waits for jobs, our president jets off to Denmark to try to secure the Olympics for Chicago in 2016. Priorities, people! My husband is in the car business and it is DYING. After the clusterfu%k of cash for clunkers, they are lucky if they have one person come looking for a car every 4 days--not necessarily buying--simply looking. It's bad.
2009-09-29 12:27:41
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Sqmo Posts: 387 Incept: 2009-09-14
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Wasn't it Chris Martenson who said that if everyone tries to sell their house at the same time, then their house is worth much less than they think it is? The same holds with any asset. As the boomers were piling retirement money into stocks, prices had to keep going up. When a mass of people pull their money out of stocks the prices have to go down. Any borrowing should be self liquidating, like for starting a business or something that will pay for itself over time. Borrowing to pay for a depreciating asset like a steak dinner, HDTV, or car, is only digging a hole. Home improvements is the same deal. It is said that remodeling your kitchen gives you the highest "return on investment" of 80%. This terminology is entirely inappropriate, since remodeling is not an investment. Say you spend $10,000 remodeling and now your house is "worth" $8,000 more than it was. You lost $2,000 in value. Hopefully you gained some more enjoyment in the new kitchen but it is not an "investment." J6P is constantly fooled my marketing terms like this. I also heard a radio ad for Mercedes cars that talked about a lease as a good "investment in quality." The luxury automakers were kind of shut out of CFC so this was their response: Labeling a lease as an investment. Tell me how is a car going to pay for itself, or it's not an investment. Personally I don't see how any non-dividend stock can even be considered an investment. You are only ever depending on the fact that someone else will pay more for the stock than you did.
2009-09-29 12:29:52
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Risingcream Posts: 2544 Incept: 2007-09-07
Online
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It's Fraudzilla vs Bondzilla and Bondzilla is getting the beatdown.
---------- Civilization...ancient and wicked. --Subotai The trees in Siberia are miles apart, that is why the dogs are so fast. -- Bob Hope
2009-09-29 12:52:17
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Newbtrader Posts: 3257 Incept: 2007-08-24
Bubbleville, VA Online
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Great ticker Karl as always! Bravo man!  It's funny, I think people are slowly starting to realize what a ****ing sham/screwed up system we have. The problem though, is that people are too lazy to get off their asses and even contact their congresstards, since things aren't "too bad." I guess when that time comes, it's going to be a little chaotic. ---------- "So try and figure this **** out. Catholic men and jewish women, no hats. Catholic women and jewish men, hats. Somebody's got the whole thing totally ****ing backwards." -George Carlin
2009-09-29 12:52:21
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Kidhorn Posts: 88 Incept: 2009-08-11 Rockville, MD
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Quote:While America waits for jobs, our president jets off to Denmark to try to secure the Olympics for Chicago in 2016. Priorities, people! I was thinking the same thing. Rome is burning while Nero plays his violin.
2009-09-29 12:58:14
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Otiswild Posts: 1341 Incept: 2009-03-09
Teegeeack
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Do I have enough time to drop a reference to Deep Capture here? http://www.deepcapture.com/jim-cramer-is.... I'm thinking the ignorance by these folks is "professional"... "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" - Upton Sinclair ---------- It appears that the yard wolves has grown up. Are we finally finished with the colds dead winters?
2009-09-29 13:05:44
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Pojo Posts: 34 Incept: 2009-08-05
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the only thing i don't get, and i've been asking for it to no avail, is WHY is the mainstream media "covering it up"? not just "becuase it makes the parent company money" show the data on that. it's out there, right? what do they have to gain (maybe not too difficult to show)? and are they in fact gaining? the 360 million shares of Citi sold so far today: why such volume? who is making the money? at some point, the battering of the MSM gets old, let's move on to why they are doing it...and i expect the same kind of excellent math-based analysis show me the paper trail that leads to GE making money by having CNBC green shoot everything
2009-09-29 13:19:39
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Ggg71 Posts: 27 Incept: 2009-06-03 Swampscott, MA
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Downtown Boston is hemorrhaging businesses. Tons of empty store fronts, and most are not being re-rented. The few that are are businesses moving a block, or across the street to new office space, at what I'm guessing must be significant discounts in rent. We also have a gigantic hole in the ground in the heart of the city where Filene's used to be. The developer who tore down the building was unable to obtain financing to continue with his multimillion dollar mixed use high rise. (Store fronts, office space, hotel rooms, and luxury condos) The lunch places all seem less busy too. The latest "business opportunity" I am seeing here, is the conversion of empty store fronts into billboards. There's a new one around the corner from where I work filled with TV screens advertising for Monday Night football. It's surreal.
2009-09-29 13:33:50
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Doctormad Posts: 1801 Incept: 2007-09-09
Ohio
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Notice how mainstream/old media always tries to attack the CHARACTER not the CONTENT of the new media/blogosphere. It's a sign of weakness. They are losing eyeballs to people who do real journalism and present ALL the facts, not just the facts which support the status quo.
2009-09-29 13:47:11
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Rutben Posts: 900 Incept: 2007-07-27
Phoenix, AZ Online
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In March I compiled a list of 350 "value" stocks (less than tangible net worth, etc.) in anticipation of investing when the market "bottomed". This morning I went through about half the list and would guess the average gain was somewhere between 70-100%. The gains were indiscriminate. The market is supposed to be "discounting" a green shoots future. Hickey/Fleckenstein report tech companies could "beat" next quarter based largely upon demand pulled forward by cash for clunkers, etc. MSM will undoubtedly grab onto this with both feet. If they cause a melt up in the 4th quarter, it could be the greatest dislocation of capital in history. As Gen said, the end of this is near impossible to predict. Having been short RIMM I am tempted to short beforehand and if so, I hope my stomach can handle it.
2009-09-29 13:50:20
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Widgeon Posts: 6525 Incept: 2007-08-30
OK Online
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Pojo, The individual "reporters" get paid by these co's. Tell me exactly how much pressure any individual can handle with regards to threats of termination, black-listing, etc. It's not much.
2009-09-29 14:15:39
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Jstanley01 Posts: 2565 Incept: 2008-07-30
San Antonio, Texas Online
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Tickerguy wrote..Take your pick: either we have "writers" and "reporters" in the mainstream media who lack a sixth-grade education or we have those who are willing to lie for money - on purpose - to the population.I think there's a third alternative, much more deeply embedded, which is a result of the rarely-acknowledged fact that within broad swaths of our culture, the Communists didn't lose. Philosophically speaking, they won. And in government, academia, and the mainstream media of the entire Western world, they currently occupy all the high ground they need in order to rule. Their philosophy is called Dialectical Materialism, in which there is no such thing as true and false, right and wrong, truth and lies. There exists only thesis, antithesis, and synthesis.* And the consequences of such a philosophy? For one, before the Communists took over academia, the goal of a liberal education was to provide students with the rational skills necessary for independent critical thinking. Today, with the Red Bastards in charge, the goal of a liberal education is to first indoctrinate students, and then provide them with the dialectical skills they need to indoctrinate others. And the Commie Scum are good at what they do too. The reason guys and gals like Joe Hagan refuse to acknowledge your mathematical argument, is because in math there is one right answer and a whole lot of wrong answers. And they have been indoctrinated by their education against any answer -- that's of any importance whatsoever -- being understood in terms of right and wrong. That's why Hagan's story is a "horse race" story, just like every story the MSM produces during every election -- and nowadays for the most part between elections. For example: Quote:Suddenly, the shadowy figure behind Zero Hedge was a full-blown cult hero—a blogger with a bullet. His readership of angry traders and anti-government malcontents celebrated his newfound power. “Welcome to the party pal!!!” declared one of his fans in the comments section.Pinkos like Hagan are not concerned about whether Zero Hedge or anyone else is right or wrong. What he and his ilk are concerned about is bending the "thesis-versus-antithesis" fight into a "synthesis" that accomplishes whatever the "will of the people" may be, as determined by whatever version of the Central Committee it is that personally "feeds their need." So the dude fronts Zero Hedge as an emerging antithesis, for which the magic word to qualify is "power." (And I must say, to a wannabe literati like me, Hagan's allusion to Mao himself with the "blogger with a bullet" comment, is almost endearing.) Someone may say, "Why Jstanley01, that doesn't sound like a rational way to look at the real world." As the fall of the Soviet Empire would attest, he or she would be correct. We are dealing with True Believers here of the exact same species of the Political Commissars of the Soviet Union of yore. People with whom it is impossible to reason. People with whom it is possible to do only one thing: REMOVE THEM FROM POWER. Preferably, by a combination of closing the wallet and the ballot box. Failing those, by force of arms. *Check Lenin's "elements of dialectics" here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dialectical.... ---------- ...so in short, my fellow Texans, we must secede. "For the children..." --Me Last modified:
2009-09-29 14:36:07 by jstanley01
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Pojo Posts: 34 Incept: 2009-08-05
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widgeon, that's not real convincing. that may happen for a day or 2... but that doesn't really answer the question anyway, is the parent company profiting by obfuscation/spinning/green-shooting/lying? it should be trackable/discoverable i think we all see what is hapening, but i still dont really get why it is happening. If the market makers can control it so well, why dont they just cash out now? if they "know" it all is going to come tumbling down as much as we "know" it is all going to end very badly, why are they still in? it really doesn't make sense when you look at it that way...
2009-09-29 14:23:12
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Widgeon Posts: 6525 Incept: 2007-08-30
OK Online
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Is GE "profiting" by furthering the ponzi-economy? Of course they are ... as are they all that are dependent upon debt.
2009-09-29 14:28:34
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Froghat Posts: 213 Incept: 2009-01-28 Banned
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They were talking about Zerohedge on MSNBC
2009-09-29 14:42:08
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Newbtrader Posts: 3257 Incept: 2007-08-24
Bubbleville, VA Online
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Pojo, The reality is, that sometimes the "why" doesn't ****ing matter. If I go to some club, slip some ruffees in a girl's drink, and bring her back to my place and **** her, do you really give a **** "why" I did what I did? You might, but it's still irrelevant. Finally, to add to my point, we have a "history" of negligence/lack of a brain on the part of MSM. This is factual, not up for debate. Look at ALL of our pre-quasi-collapse moments. Tech wreck... Did MSM report accurately and use logical analysis? Nope. What about before the Great Depression? Nope. Sure there were some reports here and there, but MSM was largely wrong. The current depression/housing bubble? Strike 3. Again, I say "who cares" in response to the "why." Blame it on a multitude of reasons.. sponsors want people in the market/to trade for commissions, people tending to be blindly optimistic, the "powers" want to keep everyone thinking everything's fine, the media is liberal biased and thus wants Obama to look better, etc. etc. etc. You can come up with a million "reasons.." I merely choose not to waste my time trying to discover the "why," and frankly I'm not sure anyone necessarily can pin it down/it's worth wasting the time. Karl being able to distinguish "we're ****ed" is much "simpler" because it's math, it has nothing to do with human emotions/psychology/crooks/etc. ---------- "So try and figure this **** out. Catholic men and jewish women, no hats. Catholic women and jewish men, hats. Somebody's got the whole thing totally ****ing backwards." -George Carlin Last modified:
2009-09-29 14:52:02 by newbtrader
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Highonlife Posts: 59 Incept: 2009-02-20
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Quote:At best 99 of 100 of those firms were destined to blow up. It was a mathematical certainty. uhhh...... 99/100 and 990/1000 are the same value. Im reasonably sure you meant 999/1000 :)
2009-09-29 15:01:50
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