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| User Info | The Looting of America Continues... in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26 
Royal Flush! 
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http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archi....
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-07-07 09:08:08
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Tat668 Posts: 1583 Incept: 2007-09-09 
Online
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---------- "Patience grasshoppers.... but your time to eat the bugs is coming......."- KD 9-1-2009 "This marks the beginning of the end."- Barack Obama 2-26-09 2008-07-07 09:19:50
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Micronin127 Posts: 493 Incept: 2008-01-21
Swampscott, MA
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Hi Karl, I have read that HELOCs and 2nd liens are either good or they are worthless and there is no in between. In a default scenario, they are worth 2 to 3 cents on the dollar as you point out, but is there another aspect to this equation when valuing a large portfolio of 2nd lien HELOCs. If a large pool anticipates a default rate of 30% (and I am not sure if this is a high or low estimate for a bubble area like San Diego or Bakersfield), then isn't the math 70% of loans valued at par 30% of loans worthless Value of pool = 70 cents. Are we seeing default rates in these pools over 50%? Is that anticipated? Thanks, Mike 2008-07-07 09:32:46
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Nobody is taking marks of 70 cents either Micro. How are they avoiding it? See UBS. Of course America doesn't give a **** in that you can count the number of people who bother to show up in DC to raise hell on your fingers. We (Americans) deserve a Depression. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-07-07 09:38:00
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Setag Posts: 154 Incept: 2007-10-10 
Georgia
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"We have had zero regulatory oversight from Congress over the last 20 years in these matters" - KD November can't get here soon enough for me! Use your vote wisely! 2008-07-07 09:58:51
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Yeah right Setag. Who's going to change it? Neither of the major parties. Don't run that "Democrats will fix this" crap around here, it will only get you banned from this area of the forum, as that is a FLAT LIE. Now if you're going to vote for them as incitement to make it worse and bring this to a head, fine and well. But be honest. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-07-07 10:02:05
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Guydaley Posts: 10361 Incept: 2007-07-10
Missouri & Wyoming
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Another good ticker KD. I have an alternate idea about one of your points.Quote:We cannot "grow our way out of this." Wage inflation wasn't the method congress had in mind for "growing our way out of this". It was stuffing the country with foreigners ESPECIALLY foreigners with a very high birth rate. 1. Congress knows social security is a Ponzi scheme. Got to have more people to pay for the retirees (yes, it will only postpone the inevitable but postpone is as good as solving the problem as far as they are concerned). Not all illegals are paid cash. Plus there are plenty of other taxes they cannot avoid no matter what. 2. Each new "alien" becomes a consumer, helps the GDP. We're going to have 400 million people in this country within a short period of time. 3. All this foreign labor helps to depress wages. Another win for various corporations. If they aren't helping to depress wages then at least they are a pliable workforce and less prone to complaining, organizing and suing. "Grow our way out of this" takes on a new light when you look at it this way. ---------- 2/17/09 = Hogzilla bill was signed = THE POINT OF NO RETURN = Cheers to the Reset, LONG LIVE THE UNDERGROUND ECONOMY! STARVE the BEAST! Adopt a J6P. 2008-07-07 11:17:39
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Themortgagedude Posts: 3343 Incept: 2007-12-17
saint louis
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Your usual run of the mill everyday excellent ticker. But back to basically my only point of contention with you. I think you are being too strict with your recommendations for mortgage guidelines. I think you're going too far the other way. The rules in effect for loans in 2000 would be fine. It was just the dumbass loans dreamed up in the 2001-2006 period that were beyond belief and caused this problem. There was a housing bubble starting to inflate at that time and to support it they had to come up with new more creative mortgages because people couldn't afford the payments. Well without these Payoption bull**** arms we would have had a small correction in 02 thru 04 probably, maybe not with long term rates so low. But we absolutely would not have had the bubble we had. As for back ratios of 36% that is probably a good place to start, but the real truth of the matter is that residual income needs to be looked at. My five year old is now off to kindergarten next week freeing up $800 of daycare expenses for me to pay my debts with. Is this taken into account when looking at mortgage affordability - no. If I was to get divorced they would count my child support against me but if I'm married they don't count anything against me. I guess if I'm married it doesn't cost anything to feed the little guy. Really the old VA system had it right - 41 back ratio was the only one that mattered but you also had to have residual income sufficient to care for the family. Thus a family of five was sometimes limited to buying less house than a family of two because they required you to have residual income. There's big problems still out there in the lending business. My favorite is seller funded down payment assistance for FHA loans. This is costing you billions because of the 5 times higher default rate on these loans. God if they can't come up with 3 percent from savings or a gift from family they need to wait. SOMETHING IS WRONG WHEN IT IS EASIER TO QUALIFY TO BUY A HOME THAN IT IS TO RENT A HOME. One good thing though if they would implement your mortgage guidelines - we'd get rid of the bubble in a hurry. All in all excellent work as always GEN. ---------- Since September it's just gotten colder and colder. There's less daylight now, I've noticed too. This can only mean one thing - the sun is going out. In a few more months the Earth will be a dark and lifeless ball of ice. 2008-07-07 11:27:13
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Its leverage that's the problem, and the fact that houses are by definition an illiquid asset. You CAN'T have a sustainable housing market that has prices over 3x incomes. CAN'T. This is math, not wishes and dreams. It was validated after the Depression and prevented serious property bubbles in residential R/E for nearly 100 years. Note that the REGIONS where it was violated - California for example more than once - had horrible RRE crashes. Did the rest of the nation? No. Why? Because keeping the leverage down prevents both the bubble and the blast. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-07-07 11:32:26
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Themortgagedude Posts: 3343 Incept: 2007-12-17
saint louis
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Yep - November can't get here fast enough. What good is November going to do. Jesse Ventura has it right when he says that on the ballot we should have a choice of NONE OF THE ABOVE. Term limitations would be our only hope. If we could limit Senators to one term and congressmen to two we might have a chance. Otherwise they are just going to be bought and paid for by big oil and big finance. Both sides of the aisle are guilty. I'm a life long republican from a family of life long republicans. And I am now ashamed to admit it after seeing how they have handled power in the last 10 years. ---------- Since September it's just gotten colder and colder. There's less daylight now, I've noticed too. This can only mean one thing - the sun is going out. In a few more months the Earth will be a dark and lifeless ball of ice. 2008-07-07 11:33:33
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Themortgagedude Posts: 3343 Incept: 2007-12-17
saint louis
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Hey Gen is it really leverage when you have no down payments? Maybe they should at least require a security deposit. ---------- Since September it's just gotten colder and colder. There's less daylight now, I've noticed too. This can only mean one thing - the sun is going out. In a few more months the Earth will be a dark and lifeless ball of ice. 2008-07-07 11:35:45
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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The problem can't be solved by term limits. It can only be solved by refusing to be a leach**** and beating your neighbors around the head and shoulders if he or she IS. It is only when we get off our ass and start SHUNNING those people who pull this crap that we will see it change. You may have the right to be free from discrimination in employment and housing, but you don't have a right to be free from discrimination in who you drink with or who will spend time with you. We as Americans simply need to say "no ****ing more ******nit!" and then stick to it. Either cut that **** out or be cast out. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-07-07 11:36:19
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Themortgagedude Posts: 3343 Incept: 2007-12-17
saint louis
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I think term limits are the easy way, the other way is what we're gonna see. And that might end up just short of Mad Max territory. Hell I'd almost bet on that outcome but it'd mean we'd have to get up off the couch. There are too few of us raising any hell and I'm somewhat guilty. I fire off the faxes to my congressman but I don't gather thirty friends and picket at the St Louis Federal Reserve Bank like I should. Maybe I'll head down today and see if I can hand deliver the ticker to James Bullard.
---------- Since September it's just gotten colder and colder. There's less daylight now, I've noticed too. This can only mean one thing - the sun is going out. In a few more months the Earth will be a dark and lifeless ball of ice. 2008-07-07 11:54:21
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Dirtysouth Posts: 2766 Incept: 2007-09-20
Love Truth Honour ॐ Banned
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Quote:We (Americans) deserve a Depression. Amen. **** them, lets make some money 
---------- Forest First...Trees Second Feb 9 ~ Mar 11 ~ Apr 09 ~ May 09 ~ Jun 07 ~ Jul 07 ~ Jul 22 ~ Aug 06 ~ Sep 04 ~ Oct 04 ~ Nov 02 ~ Dec 02 ~ Dec 31 2008-07-07 12:24:12
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Leraconteur Posts: 7189 Incept: 2007-12-03
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Guydaley wrote at 2008-07-07 08:17:39: "Wage inflation wasn't the method congress had in mind for "growing our way out of this". It was stuffing the country with foreigners ESPECIALLY foreigners with a very high birth rate." In California the first big wave of immigration came about in the mid 1970's. Just as Roe v. Wade was removing consumers from the population, as the existing pool of women were marrying less, working more, putting career first, waiting longer to marry, getting divorced, and having fewer children. In hindsight TPTB are quick on the draw. They ain't stupid. 2008-07-07 12:50:28
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Eaglewwit Posts: 1458 Incept: 2007-11-30 SoCal
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Great summary of the problems Gen. I had to email that off to my Congressman. I hope it gets read.
---------- "Not even I imagined we would see trillions of dollars being created and given to the culprits as a means of allegedly "saving" the system. This is not mere Keynesianism; it is Keynesianism on steroids and crystal meth." 2008-07-07 13:17:44
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Thewad Posts: 146 Incept: 2007-06-26 Ontario Canada
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Just got back from 5 weeks in Europe. Their real estate prices make US prices seem sane. Boy do they have a long way to fall. Glad I left there in 1970 as they are really going to get ass****ed.
2008-07-07 13:41:31
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Setag Posts: 154 Incept: 2007-10-10
Georgia
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Well, that just made my day. I never said anything about "Democrats will fix this" or that. "Now if you're going to vote for them as incitement to make it worse and bring this to a head, fine and well. But be honest." This is not a bad idea actually. My idea is to cast them out this November and I don't give a **** what party they represent at this point. "We as Americans simply need to say "no ****ing more ******nit!" and then stick to it. Either cut that **** out or be cast out. - KD 2008-07-07 14:09:57
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Thetruthhurts Posts: 434 Incept: 2008-01-09
Oakland, CA
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KD, I have enjoyed many tickers, but this is now my favorite. Some have been harsher, some more humorous, but this ticker is the cleanest, least profane and generically comprehensive one I've read. It could be a letter to Congress. What many here at TF may forget is that J6P couldn't understand half of what is written on first or second reading. Hell, I'm a former business lawyer who studied economics, and yet the finer points of the operation of macroecon in the real world sometimes escapes me. My point is, I can forward this ticker broadly and many of those "not-in-the know" will understand much of it. My dad will get it and he'll be more ****ed than he already is. My wife may better understand why we DID NOT go long in April and May and why the bottom is not near. The more I read tickers and try to simplify for folks, the more Perot's charts idea makes sense. Although many of us have left the powerpoint world, those graphics can do a great job of simplifying for the masses. I've started perusing the forum with charts and am hoping to find something really simple for the masses. Again, thanks and great work. 2008-07-07 14:21:16
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Pika-steph Posts: 37242 Incept: 2007-09-11
^Why I keep^ fighting; so he is not fighting for nothing.
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Quote:Of course America doesn't give a **** in that you can count the number of people who bother to show up in DC to raise hell on your fingers. *raisinghand* 'Scuse me, but could those of us who have been vigorously showing up and working our ass off on this matter get an exclusion from the coming Depression? ---------- Stop the Looting; Start Prosecuting - http://www.FedUpUSA.org  "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system, but too early to shoot the bastards." 2008-07-07 14:39:19
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Dirtysouth Posts: 2766 Incept: 2007-09-20
Love Truth Honour ॐ Banned
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You all are excused
---------- Forest First...Trees Second Feb 9 ~ Mar 11 ~ Apr 09 ~ May 09 ~ Jun 07 ~ Jul 07 ~ Jul 22 ~ Aug 06 ~ Sep 04 ~ Oct 04 ~ Nov 02 ~ Dec 02 ~ Dec 31 Last modified:
2008-07-07 14:58:06 by dirtysouth
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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You're excused Steph - I'll grill for you guys - you supply the protein to stick ON the grill. I'm sure you can find some.  ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-07-07 14:58:39
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Pika-steph Posts: 37242 Incept: 2007-09-11
^Why I keep^ fighting; so he is not fighting for nothing.
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Oh ABSOLUTELY! If it has meat, I can shoot it. Got BBQ sauce?
---------- Stop the Looting; Start Prosecuting - http://www.FedUpUSA.org "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system, but too early to shoot the bastards." Last modified:
2008-07-07 15:09:49 by pika-steph
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Dkane Posts: 2956 Incept: 2007-07-28
If it moves TAX IT!
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Karl, How do you come up with 12% real estate fee? I know it is common for a listing agent to charge 6% (in the good ole days) and then out of that 6% listing fee, the selling agent usually gets 3%. If the listing agent brings in the buyer too well the entire 6% goes to the broker. Not sure how you came up with 12% in a transaction? ---------- What if everything you ever believed was a fabricated lie? Copy, paste and bookmark for a rainy day - 2 hours. http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-594683847743189197 The Addendum (2-hours) Released October 2, 2008 http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7065205277695921912 2008-07-07 16:50:31
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Round-trip Dkane. You have to buy and sell to end up back where you started. 6% per half-trip. When you buy and sell futures, you compute the commission from "flat to flat"; ditto for any other financial transaction. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-07-07 16:55:46
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