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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2008/....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-01-14 16:50:18
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Stockaholik Posts: 2156 Incept: 2007-08-22 
San Diego, CA
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VIX down 78 cents (3.29%) too. If the vix goes down to 20, I will go so heavy on index puts that I won't be able to sleep. That would be the gift of all gifts. I can't get over how complacent the market seems, but I'll take it...
---------- "A good trade isn't a trade where you make money. A good trade is where you make money with predefined risk/reward." "There are bold traders, and there are old traders, but there are no bold old traders."
2008-01-14 18:19:08
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Fourredfish Posts: 3324 Incept: 2007-06-26
Seattle - Where Spencer Elden's penis became famous.
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Gen - What month Q puts have you been nibbling ?
2008-01-14 18:25:23
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Februaries. If I'm right about the turn, its imminent, most likely within 2 trading days (either direction) of OpEx. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-01-14 18:28:42
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Fourredfish Posts: 3324 Incept: 2007-06-26
Seattle - Where Spencer Elden's penis became famous.
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With a hairy eyeball on FOMC the 31st?
2008-01-14 18:47:59
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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I'm totally unconcerned about the FOMC. Look at history - only the first "unexpected" rate cut produces anything but a feeble pop. Further cuts do little or actually result in tankage. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-01-14 18:48:56
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Bw8472 Posts: 6446 Incept: 2007-06-28
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Spot on ticker. I tell my kids these things all the time, although I'm guilty of the allowance advance but I do always make them pay it back with interest. I charge a hefty fee, they've learned it sucks to borrow, 1$ per 10 borrowed, no matter what timeframe, I just drop it in their college fund but they don't know that. I tried to buy some Q puts right at the close, put the order in on the ask and never got filled, was aiming for 45's, bs Merrill Lynch, my TOS is totally all in so got nothing left in that one. ---------- At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide. ~Abraham Lincoln
2008-01-14 18:58:50
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Akula Posts: 1809 Incept: 2007-10-01
Moscow
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Probably been brought before but the SPX has not been able to hold the 38.2 FIB on three seperate occasions on two different days. I have also noticed that though the SPX has not been able to complete a 50% retracement most of the banks/brokers have made a 50% retracement measuring from their December 24th peaks. Good night. Last modified:
2008-01-14 19:04:36 by akula
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Goforbroke Posts: 980 Incept: 2007-11-30 
Ohio Online
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I went to pick up my son at his tutor's, and the tutor's daughter was putting on those boot things you see everywhere. I said, "Oooh, a Christmas present?" and she said, "Yes." I said, "Yes, I gather they are the 'in' thing." (I'm not really up on this fashion stuff.) To which her mother replied, "Yup. These are the Target $19.99 version. They aren't Uggs at $150." I was shocked. I didn't know that those things cost $150. Thank god my 9-year old daughter doesn't give a **** what she wears. Hey, if she wants to wear shorts in January in Ohio (which she does), fine by me. As long as she doesn't want $150 boots to wear with those shorts. :-) ---------- Time to feed the chickens.
2008-01-14 19:09:31
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Bozonian Posts: 14033 Incept: 2007-09-01
PFT - Pure F'n Tin
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Why the last ticker Genesis? Are you getting depressed about the impending Doomsday? ---------- I'm so depressed about outsourcing I called the suicide hotline and got a call center in Pakistan. They got all excited and asked me if I could drive a truck. Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice.
2008-01-14 19:16:00
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Akula - yep. I would have normally waited, given the signs I have, until Wednesday or Thursday to start "PUT"ting. However, the inability to get through that fib line this afternoon despite multiple attempts accelerated my plans a bit.... ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-01-14 19:17:01
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Nightowl Posts: 2279 Incept: 2007-06-26
On a 45 for 18
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RE:Chipotle-try CMG/B -easy to borrow on TOS if you want to short em
2008-01-14 20:52:31
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Blackswan Posts: 3602 Incept: 2007-11-06
Ponzi Roller Coaster Online
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KD - Thanks again for your work. What do you think the impact will be if the PPI is high or low? I think the ****i, I mean Citi earnings and retail may trump everything else. ----------
2008-01-14 20:55:41
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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A smoking PPI will trump everything else.
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-01-14 21:05:42
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Blackswan Posts: 3602 Incept: 2007-11-06
Ponzi Roller Coaster Online
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Thanks. That would mean inflation pressure on earnings correct? I agree with the deflation arguement but I guess that is down the road?
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2008-01-14 21:11:22
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Input pressure ass****s earnings down the road - you either eat it or pass it on, but either way it kills you. It will also take the wind out of the guys who think they're getting 75bips, which is why we haven't taken a total tube shot. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-01-14 21:13:18
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Early_retirement Posts: 1843 Incept: 2007-06-26
Burlington, Vermont Online
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Sucks being on vacation this week with just my Palm 4 trading...makes me really appreciate the input of u folks when I can't get full market info...time to put on my PUTS...
---------- "You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else."
2008-01-14 21:45:42
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Ajas Posts: 1647 Incept: 2007-08-28
Seattle, Zootown
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Fed Funds Futures imply almost 50/50 odds between 50/75 bp cut. Chances of 25 are about zero. http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/Pol.... ---------- "It takes the hoople-heads time to adjust. Sometimes I wish we could just hit em over the head, rob em, and throw their bodies in the creek." "But that would be wrong."
2008-01-14 22:32:59
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Eleua Posts: 9907 Incept: 2007-07-05
N 47.72/ W 122.55
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Sweet. I hope it rises to 100% probability of a 75 with the EFF sitting right on the FFT. I'll take the rest of the year off. ---------- http://clearcutbainbridge.blogspot.com/
2008-01-14 22:35:06
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Architect Posts: 780 Incept: 2007-07-11
london UK
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Proportions? any idea how many Americans are solvent and how much upside have they got? I have been looking for distributed wealth and debt averages in the UK and cannot find any. It would be interesting to know who has capital by income, age and location; also whether they have kids ... ditto for debt
2008-01-14 22:55:57
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Ajas, I don't care what the betting public thinks, there is absolutely no data currently in the can supporting a rate change. Zero. Now this can (and might) change, but as it stands right now, that's what it is. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-01-14 23:47:01
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Mondocondo Posts: 3143 Incept: 2007-12-03
Miami
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KD--pretty depressing outlook. For those of us not adept at shorting or options, how would you play this-- load up on ultra short ETFs?
2008-01-14 23:59:06
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Etrade_refugee Posts: 4965 Incept: 2007-11-14
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SKF, Mondocondo.
2008-01-15 00:00:48
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Mondo, that ain't depressing. Its reality. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-01-15 00:04:40
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Adarak Posts: 5245 Incept: 2007-07-19
Online
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 Zero chance of 0.25?
2008-01-15 00:06:43
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