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| User Info | The Crescendo Is Getting Deafening in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/1360-T....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-08-21 11:01:30
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Arcone Posts: 2094 Incept: 2008-02-09 
NYCville
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"You simply must take steps to protect yourself from falling bond prices, rising interest rates, and a weak dollar." Do they mean by buying Gold?
2009-08-21 11:05:52
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Oh probably, which I disagree with. That's not the point. The point is that the issues I've been pounding the table on for two years are now being picked up by Buffett and PIMCO, and unlike a guy like me, they can and will move the markets as they swing around a big enough dick to do so. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-08-21 11:06:50
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Marketman1012 Posts: 33 Incept: 2009-04-25 NY
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How can you protect in that scenario unless you go long other currencies? That would be like asset deflation but dollar dropping, i think we're used to the dollar rising during the deflation of assets like last fall. Cripes!
2009-08-21 11:08:18
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Alex Posts: 1649 Incept: 2007-08-03
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So we can expect an attack on the pound to be imminent. Surprised the macros haven't started yet. Maybe they are waiting for the GDP figures.
2009-08-21 11:08:52
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Arcone Posts: 2094 Incept: 2008-02-09
NYCville
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I hear you karl, but so many links can be pulled where PIMCO and Buffet are downright bullish also. Serves to keep the retail investor confused and scared.
2009-08-21 11:10:39
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Curbyourrisk Posts: 1891 Incept: 2008-08-19 Long Island, New York
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I am not a gold bull, but I can see a reason to own it for a store of value. Not for an investment play. Be warned, that whent he **** hits the fan...and it will...gold prices will decline also. What do you think all the hedge funds will have to sell in order to meet margin calls??? That's right...gold. supply will keep prices in check. Gold is not a investment in inflationary times, but I can be tricked into believing it a HEDGE...or a store of value (if value means not losing as much as you would in equities.) ---------- Hopium: hope filled delirium preached by the White House and Swallowed whole by the American Sheeple. Why is Franklin Raines a free man? "We saved the world from disaster" - Ben Bernanke - Jackson Hole 08/21/2009 
2009-08-21 11:12:18
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Kidhorn Posts: 88 Incept: 2009-08-11 Rockville, MD
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And the markets are way up. Ben has saved the world. Hooray. This must be what VE day felt like. Isn't today a witching day? The fed wouldn't try to goose the market today would they? I mean that would be dishonest.
2009-08-21 11:17:28
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Arcone, Buffett, Soros, PIMCO .et.al. are the folks who have to be behind what the administration and Treasury is doing, as they can trash the market with their mouth - not to mention their wallets. Treasury doesn't dare keep up issuance at its present rate for long into this sort of jawboning. But if they pull back spending craters. If Bernanke pulls off the QE programs then rates rise. None of this is positive in the intermediate (couple of months forward) term. This entire rise has been driven by dollar movements and liquidity. Those are the most dangerous moves to play because there is nothing fundamentally under them - there is no real support. The P/E makes this clear: 150? You're joking, right? Yeah, I know, that includes losses. And? Take out the bad 4Q print (which will roll in two quarters) and we're still up around 40-50. Lunacy. The current price for the SPX is pricing in a 5% GDP print for the next four quarters sequentially. That is not going to happen, but its what's priced in on a yield-based computation. I've never seen a divergence this big in the US. We took a shot at it with the Nasdaq in 1999 when the index doubled in a year, but it also then collapsed. We're doing the same **** now with the broad indices. You're welcome to believe "its different this time", but that's not the percentage bet that pays. This is distinct from TRADING - it is for INVESTING. You go in on the long term here expecting "reflation" FROM HERE you're a nut. From 666? Sure - either they stopped the bleeding or you needed your guns. They stopped it - for now. But here, if you're smart, you're selling those longs into this, having gotten fairly close to a double. If you're not smart you deserve what you get. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-08-21 11:17:55
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Baja Posts: 77 Incept: 2009-06-03 Outback Texas Banned
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OK, here's what I can see. 1. Obama wants to get re-elected. That won't happen if he adopts a strong dollar policy. 2. Ben wants to be reappointed. He's not going to defend the dollar until after that happens. 3. Geithner will blow with the wind, whatever way it blows. As far as I'm concerned, Geither just blows, period. 4. Congress is in the business of spending money, not fixing things. Congress has never fixed anything that I can think of. They're darn good at spending OPM though, which is of course their REAL mission. All who hold the future of the free world in their hands are politicians, bureaucrats and yes men. That is how they got to where they are. I hear you, Gen, but I am also pragmatic enough, after being beaten over the head for six months to realize that it is what it is. They would rather take us over the falls tomorrow than do the right thing today. And that is exactly what they are going to do. As I've been saying for the last several posts, it's time to play defense. It's time to prepare. Godspeed to all.
2009-08-21 11:18:09
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Luke428 Posts: 318 Incept: 2009-02-10 
Boston
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I came to my senses late, and went all cash at about SPX 830 or so.... I will tell you one thing, the regret that I feel of not getting back in at 666 or whatever is TINY compared to the feeling of relief I had when I watched the market go from 900ish early this year to 666. I am staying in cash. This won't be kept up forever, and when it does reach an end it will be so sudden and so violent it won't be funny one bit.
2009-08-21 11:47:24
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Themortgagedude Posts: 3930 Incept: 2007-12-17
saint louis
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Well **** Off then Gen! If you and Warren and Charlie and Bill and Mohammed are thinking alike. Hell I don't know what to think then. I'm just gonna have to turn off my internet connection and hunker down in my bunker.
---------- "These are interesting times. We don't trust the government, we don't trust the legal system, we don't trust the media, and we don't trust each other! We've undermined all authority, and with it, the basis for replacing it! It's like a six-year-old's dream come true!"
2009-08-21 11:51:02
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Reza30 Posts: 233 Incept: 2009-02-15
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Gen, it seems that BB is going to trash the dollar after all... This pretty much sums up the sentiment of real Americans who are not benefiting from the printed money given to the stock market.  Also available for sale online: http://www.zazzle.com/ben_bernanke_who_i.... Last modified:
2009-08-21 11:57:01 by reza30
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Moonoverseattle Posts: 2776 Incept: 2008-02-02
MOTEL 6
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buffet and pimpco knew this the same as you. they were just traitors to not bring it up since it would hurt their book ****ers both - kudos to you The dollar going down will still get us to hell it will just **** things up even more. I dont see the logic since by taking this route the Republic is more at risk. Amazing lack of historical grounding with this dipsticks Need a drink ---------- A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury.
2009-08-21 11:58:31
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Wawawa Posts: 104 Incept: 2009-03-18 San Diego, CA
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Truly we are living in an interesting time in the history of USA, and potentially a dangerous one. Very difficult times are ahead. Our nation's character will be tested. My main concern is that most of the time outcome of big calamities are the rise of dictatorship and totalitarian regime. ---------- RAT RACE IS OVER, RATS WON :) Last modified:
2009-08-21 12:05:26 by wawawa
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Jwm_in_sb Posts: 224 Incept: 2009-04-16
California Desert Online
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Well....I have reached the point where I am beginning to believe some of the tinfoil about our Govt having been captured by a group that is, by all appearances, beyond US Sovereignty. They do not care, and in fact are driving us towards collapse. It is the only way I can see reasoning behind the insanity that is the US Equity, Bond markets, and USD$ right now.
2009-08-21 12:05:05
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Fortune Posts: 1455 Incept: 2008-04-21 A deep dark place...scary
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The political ambitions of the current administration indicate which avenue they intend on taking. They do not intend on "wasting a good crisis" to forgo their opportunity to roll out their spending plans, healthcare or other. These guys think a $1 trillion deficit is sustainable. Scary. The bond market is going to be put to the test.
---------- It's a toss up. It is the Rule of Law that transforms assets into money: Martin Armstrong Math IS: Karl Denninger
2009-08-21 12:07:28
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Frat Posts: 150 Incept: 2009-07-15 NKY
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Baja, I have to argue against your #2 right off the bat! I do not believe for a second Bernake wants another turn on the merry-go-round; indeed, I think part of this whole cluster**** we're watching is that he's trying to extend and pretend long enough to get the hell away from the entire mess. Although EVERYONE will blame him, if he's not under the direct spotlight as the head-cheese at the FED, he can claim "It was out of my control" when in fact he helped drive us straight into Anal****Ville. People have been asking "What could his ulterior motive be?!" and I say straight up he's not only trying to hold on as long as possible, but he at LEAST wants to hold on until January (isn't that when his time is up?).
2009-08-21 12:07:42
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Weaseldog Posts: 282 Incept: 2008-12-11 Texas Banned
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These men are on a mission to keep profits high in the major international banks. They'll do whatever it takes to keep these banks disbursing huge bonuses and golden parachutes that black out the sun. Nothing else matters. Nothing at all. In this view, everything they've done is predictable, and rational. After all with the huge gambling losses that the international banks have seen, there are few options available to keep every quarter's financials in the black. These men are citizens of Goldman Sachs. Don't make the mistake in assuming that have any loyalty to a nation or a culture. ---------- "You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts." - Richard Feynman
2009-08-21 12:11:12
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Moonoverseattle Posts: 2776 Incept: 2008-02-02
MOTEL 6
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EITHER WAY game over but by trashing the dollar you will have destroyed the rest of the middle class and decimated the poor. Argentina here we come - Only diff is 60 million americans with guns. Bad juju - thinking these guys are just ****ing retards. ---------- A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury.
2009-08-21 12:12:39
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Fortune Posts: 1455 Incept: 2008-04-21 A deep dark place...scary
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They think they can keep it together. The disconnect is astonishing.
---------- It's a toss up. It is the Rule of Law that transforms assets into money: Martin Armstrong Math IS: Karl Denninger
2009-08-21 12:14:15
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Karlmarxghost Posts: 2641 Incept: 2009-01-26
Stealing Your Property
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Quote:Profiting from Fannie being backstopped, for example, is obscene. Its not illegal, but it is obscene. So is profiting from banks that are allowed to jack interest rates to 30% to cover their own sin of writing loans without a prayer in Hell of the borrower being able to pay. There was a time when society frowned on people profiting on a national crisis. Look at WWII for example. Welcome to crony capitalism/fascism/Oligarchy////// ---------- My views are my view and mine alone. Karl or ticker forum does not endorse or necessarily agree with my views. DO not trade on my views or take them personally.
2009-08-21 12:16:22
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Weaseldog Posts: 282 Incept: 2008-12-11 Texas Banned
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Quote:Only diff is 60 million americans with guns. Bad juju - thinking these guys are just ****ing retards. Billionaires can live anywhere in the world. Who's gonna swim to Dubai for payback? ---------- "You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts." - Richard Feynman
2009-08-21 12:19:35
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Jwm_in_sb Posts: 224 Incept: 2009-04-16
California Desert Online
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We didn't need a Barak Obama, we needed an Andrew Jackson right now. The biggest problem in all of this is still the ignorance and apathy of J6P. By the time they figure it out, it's too late to do something about because of the seriousness of this.
2009-08-21 12:20:30
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Arcone Posts: 2094 Incept: 2008-02-09
NYCville
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"The P/E makes this clear: 150? You're joking, right? Yeah, I know, that includes losses. And? Take out the bad 4Q print (which will roll in two quarters) and we're still up around 40-50. Lunacy. The current price for the SPX is pricing in a 5% GDP print for the next four quarters sequentially." Karl, my concern is that you're trying to twist bad numbers out of the past and extend them into the future. PE 150 based on calculations that aren't used by the industry. Taking out the 4Q print to come up with another figure. It seems to me that trying to manipulate bad numbers in the face of a 50% rally is like what Nate did with his YoY PPI analysis while ignoring the fact that that 'collapse' was the result of 3 very bad months from last year. That if you look at the MoM numbers you will find that we're back to stability which explains the frustration for the shorts. Did we stablize for the wrong reasons? Yeah, maybe, but capitalism is about competition and money making. It's coming back after a couple of really bad and uncertain years. This explains the reality we're seeing as opposed to this dark future that may never come.
2009-08-21 12:21:53
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