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| User Info | Special Update - Moody's Puts a Fork In It in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 71366 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2007/....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-08-01 00:06:29
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Synthetik Posts: 4359 Incept: 2007-06-26 
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you know what time it is............
2007-08-01 00:20:53
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Synthetik Posts: 4359 Incept: 2007-06-26
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2007-08-01 00:22:46
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Bubblesee Posts: 3768 Incept: 2007-06-27 
nyc
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Aren't these kinds of now worthless paper needed to complete all these upcoming deals? (TXU, CEREBUS, BOOTS, etc etc etc ) ---------- Ticker Forum Special: "Bennie and the Feds" Melody:Elton John Lyrics:Bubblesee http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etfVMtCq9Oc (Larry Kudblow eat your heart out)
2007-08-01 00:24:46
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Genesis Posts: 71366 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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The market is going to take this very poorly. Very, very poorly. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-08-01 00:25:41
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Stormsailor1981 Posts: 8449 Incept: 2007-06-26
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think we might trip the breakers tomorrow, probably an even bet right now
2007-08-01 00:26:36
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Justin Posts: 229 Incept: 2007-06-26 Atlanta
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Prediction: Dow under 13k tomorrow ... anyone agree?
---------- it's a little known fact that I designed the ticker forum logo :P
2007-08-01 00:33:46
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Genesis Posts: 71366 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Oh I think that's in the bag. Dow under 12k is possible tomorrow. Really. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-08-01 00:34:34
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Stormsailor1981 Posts: 8449 Incept: 2007-06-26
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if that yen unwinds tonight down steady under 117.00 we could hit the all stop breaker.
2007-08-01 00:36:56
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Genesis Posts: 71366 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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If the Yen unwinds under 117 there is a very good chance we are lock-limit down on the futures in the morning. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-08-01 00:37:37
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Ao Posts: 386 Incept: 2007-06-26
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Karl, what is that indicated by? I'm not used to futures, so i'm wondering how you would tell if we are "lock-limit down"?
2007-08-01 00:39:11
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Genesis Posts: 71366 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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You'll know. Just turn on CNBS.  What it means is that you can't trade it down any more and if you're stuck in that position you also can't get out (in short, you're ****ed as the contract is locked.) This is one of the risks of playing in the futures markets, and it can and does put people in the poorhouse. We haven't hit lock-limit in a very long time in the index futures; it happens in the commodity markets sometimes and when it does it tends to ruin not only people but firms as well. As things stand right now I don't think its going to happen but I could be wrong and somewhere in here I have to get some sleep.... but I'll be up early tomorrow - bet on it. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-08-01 00:45:20
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Stormsailor1981 Posts: 8449 Incept: 2007-06-26
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take a pill with a v on it.
2007-08-01 00:55:43
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Eleua Posts: 9906 Incept: 2007-07-05
N 47.72/ W 122.55
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Well, I gave this some thought, and I only have one thing to say about this. | |||
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Genesis Posts: 71366 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Well if I had the balls for it I'd short into the hole on the futures markets - I DO have access to them. But while I've got some swinging hairy ones, they ain't THAT big and I like the gains I've made thus far trading this a bit more conservatively - I have no intention of giving any of it back. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-08-01 00:57:25
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Stockmonger Posts: 2159 Incept: 2007-06-28 Orange County
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By the way, this is somewhat old news, S&P was on this more than a month ago: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2.... You're probably right that this didn't get priced in at the time so Moody's announcement will hit harder. Note also that the old news said prime jumbo haven't been doing so hot either. As that goes there's another 25% of your remaining market--and even higher in markets like CA where jumbos are the only prime mortgage available (i.e. loans > $417K). ---------- occasionally I do like to see the other viewpoints of people not in my camp of theory, but I generally find it to be a waste of time. - Bear
2007-08-01 01:10:58
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Meatpuddle Posts: 630 Incept: 2007-07-26
Madame Merriweather's Mudhut Malaysia
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Genesis, Excellent job as usual. The realization that Alt-A is no better than subprime and is in many cases worse than subprime will come as a shock to the apparatchiks, but not to anyone who has been paying attention. Once we come to the realization that Alt-A includes things like 125% LTV Option-ARM, neg-ams for FICO 650's, we begin to understand how far down the rabbit hole goes. Also worth mentioning is that Alt-A literally dwarfs subprime on a scale of 9 to 1. So we all know ml-implode.com, right? Imagine 900 lenders instead of 100 - and much bigger lenders also. The CDO/MBS Wall St. Wildcat finance derivative machine as we know it is going belly up right before our eyes. I don't know anyone that can say for sure how bad this will get. All we know is that it will be very, very bad. Being basically an RE person for many years, I am surprised at the hubris of Wall St. They obviously had no idea how serious an RE bust is, and how RE is literally a $35TR+ market. You can't **** up something that huge and expect to sweep it under the rug. It just doesn't work that way. I'd be surprised if we held 13K this week at all... ---------- "the idea that you're "entitled" to a 5 or 6 percent 30 year mortgage is horse****, and so is the housing prices that it has created." - Genesis
2007-08-01 01:18:11
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Dkane Posts: 2982 Incept: 2007-07-28
If it moves TAX IT!
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Does this mean with a 580-mid score, I can't offer an 80/20 combo with the seller paying up to 6% of the closing & prepaid costs and get them their at closing? :-) ---------- What if everything you ever believed was a fabricated lie? Copy, paste and bookmark for a rainy day - 2 hours. http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-594683847743189197 The Addendum (2-hours) Released October 2, 2008 http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7065205277695921912
2007-08-01 02:46:13
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Dashingdwl Posts: 4564 Incept: 2007-06-26
los angeles
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In LA, local radio still advertises for the exotic mortgage products. Don't forget fraud, both fraud for profit/theft and fraud for housing. The thief is gone (maybe they had a grow house) and made few, if any payments. The legit guy explodes on reset. There is going a **** ton of fraud. And a **** ton is a lot. ---------- Think Green Tip.
2007-08-01 02:55:18
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