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Genesis Posts: 71416 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2007/....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-12-20 00:10:45
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Bozonian Posts: 14033 Incept: 2007-09-01 
PFT - Pure F'n Tin
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Whew. The hairs on the back of my neck sprouted up as I was reading this.
---------- I'm so depressed about outsourcing I called the suicide hotline and got a call center in Pakistan. They got all excited and asked me if I could drive a truck. Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice. Last modified:
2007-12-20 00:51:53 by bozonian
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Mtgspy Posts: 6121 Incept: 2007-10-27 
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well, GS issue isn't the swap from ABX because they are collateralized with cash. It's gonna be their earnings from stuffs they used to peddle that they can't anymore and that should be good to the road under $100 someday. ABK and MBI is absolutely toast. And by implication Citi. ---------- It sounds antiquated, merchantilistic - until you figured out that I was hoarding for war.
2007-12-20 01:01:01
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Opusfluke Posts: 764 Incept: 2007-07-03
Berkeley, CA
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Great ticker, Karl, great to have you back.
---------- The Church is near, but the way is icy. The tavern is far, but I will walk carefully.
2007-12-20 01:03:12
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Shrpblnd Posts: 1169 Incept: 2007-08-06
Los Angeles, CA
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My condolances for the loss to you and your family. Welcome back.
2007-12-20 01:22:52
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Murf Posts: 2811 Incept: 2007-08-28
the surf Online
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Karl, Awesome ticker. Thanks for keeping it simple. Now I understand why Leisman looked like he'd seen a ghost today when he announced the ACA downgrade. ---------- The recovery up is losing steam
2007-12-20 01:44:54
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Koolaid Posts: 3171 Incept: 2007-07-23
Atlanta
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KD thoughts are with your family from all of us here. Great ticker tonight. I linked it at a few other forums because I think this one has a chance to be the spark that ignites the implosion-that-can't-be-stopped. If I recall correctly, ACA and BSC are kind of co-joined at the hip, and the surgery needed to separate them might be beyond the talents of even the best financial fraudsters. The news flow from the BSC camp has been so freaking bad this week that I can't believe the stock isn't in the 50s. Got puts? Yes. Still worried? A little. 
2007-12-20 01:52:00
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Peace Posts: 688 Incept: 2007-07-09
San Diego
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Sorry about your nephew. Welcome back. According to this post by Mish, the market was ahead of the credit ratings cartel...ACA was trading at 40 cents and was delisted from the stock exchange. S&P ratings is purposeful behind the curve. http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.c....
2007-12-20 02:11:33
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Isaac Posts: 535 Incept: 2007-07-27
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Glad to see you back Karl. Your family is in our prayers.
---------- "Diversity: a Propaganda Mechanism used discriminate against white males, flood the country with illegal aliens, and indoctrinate your child into thinking that being gay will make them a better artist" --ME!
2007-12-20 02:41:14
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Vrb747 Posts: 1161 Incept: 2007-09-02 South Florida
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My English is not very good. What does Requium mean ? Or do u mean Requiem ? as in :- Requiem Noun 1. A song or hymn of mourning composed or performed as a memorial to a dead person. 2. A musical setting for a Mass celebrating the dead. 3. A Mass celebrated for the dead. Again, I dont mean to offend anyone. ---------- Disclosure : I usually dont know WTF Im talking about
2007-12-20 02:56:48
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Adarak Posts: 5241 Incept: 2007-07-19
Online
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Vrb, yes. Same thing.
2007-12-20 03:02:25
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Vrb747 Posts: 1161 Incept: 2007-09-02 South Florida
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lol, thanks Adarak, whew.
---------- Disclosure : I usually dont know WTF Im talking about
2007-12-20 03:10:10
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Asianbull Posts: 2184 Incept: 2007-09-03
Online
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KD, sorry for your loss. BTW, the credit insurers aren't the only ones who are in trouble. ANYONE, that has written a Credit Default swap is in trouble--BSC,MER,MS,C, JPM, etc. These firms effectively are credit insurers themselves. The psychology of the American consumer has changed towards the house. It is no longer an investment vechicle--it is now a depreciating asset like a car. This fundamentally alters to the demand/supply outlook--DEMAND GOING DOWN, SUPPLY GOING UP. We could potentially have 4-5 years of supply overhang out there!!! This means no one has any incentive to improve their house, which means values depreciate even faster! I.E. THE EQUITY CUSHION FOR ANYONE WHO HAS BORROWED MORE THAN 20% OF THE VALUE OF THE HOME JUST WENT UP IN FLAMES, WHICH MEANS DEFAULTS REALLY SKYROCKET, WHICH FURTHER INCREASES SUPPLY. BTW, if you are going to go bankrupt, why not just default on all of your debt--credit card, auto, student loan,etc. ---------- The root cause of all the world's problems is inflation. The only sound money in the world is commodities.
2007-12-20 05:45:59
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Jubber Posts: 4242 Incept: 2007-07-05
UK
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Karl, totally agree, however I can't understand why no one sees the implications of this as usual, what do think the implications will be for metals and currencies once this move ever takes place?
---------- "War is God's way of teaching Americans geography." Ambrose Bierce "The Emperor realized that the people were right but could not admit to that. He though it better to continue the procession under the illusion that anyone who couldn't see his clothes was either stupid or incompetent." Hans Christia
2007-12-20 06:05:17
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Etrade_refugee Posts: 4965 Incept: 2007-11-14
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Karl, do you think you could examine the soundness of ETFs, especially Ultrashorts, in a future Ticker? Won't a failure to pay in the swaps hurt the ability of the ETFs to get paid?
2007-12-20 08:46:42
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Pika-steph Posts: 39197 Incept: 2007-09-11
^Why I keep^ fighting; so he is not fighting for nothing.
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 Etrade - you're scaring me.
---------- Stop the Looting; Start Prosecuting - http://www.FedUpUSA.org  "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system, but too early to shoot the bastards."
2007-12-20 10:35:42
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Etrade_refugee Posts: 4965 Incept: 2007-11-14
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Pika - we're sitting here trying to make money off of other people's shortsightedness, and I'm just trying to keep from losing my money from my shortsightedness. I've got huge positions in SKF and SRS right now and I would hate that a) A major event occurred and the 2x inverse did not occur in the price b) A really major event occurred and there was a dislocation in the way the ETF was run. Honestly, are the folks running ProShares any dumber or smarter than the folks at Merrill or Bear S.?
2007-12-20 10:48:31
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Genesis Posts: 71416 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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There's a potential problem there but in theory funds are supposed to be segregated. Criminal activity always trumps reality, of course. But what other options do you have, in fact? None - so you play the cards you have. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-12-20 10:51:36
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Pointpark04 Posts: 1705 Incept: 2007-09-18 Gen. Smedley Butler Banned
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Karl, this was an EXCEPTIONAL ticker. I never understood the exact machinations of bond insuring and swaps. What you explained was truly eye-popping. I get exactly how Goldman Sachs has been gaming their earnings now. This is what you get when regulation of markets and those involved therein gets thrown out the window. When you let the foxes guard the henhouse, a feast will ensue. And fox will NOT be on the menu. ----------
2007-12-20 11:13:27
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Bscbear Posts: 285 Incept: 2007-07-13
Lees Summit, MO
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Excellent ticker. I have been looking for something that spelled out some of the developing problems to send to friends and family. Something that they would be able to understand. This was it. I fired it off to the people that I want to warn. Thanks !!
2007-12-20 18:32:41
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Zanni-baby Posts: 922 Incept: 2007-11-09
the Valley
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Karl, Thank you for your thoughtful insight regarding monolines. It's not easy to access this kind of info. I share in your family's loss for your Nephew. You and your loved one's are in my prayers. LOL~ ---------- As for all the Banksters-It's all said in one word: GOUT!
2007-12-20 23:44:22
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Jinxx0r Posts: 2064 Incept: 2007-08-10
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KD, sorry for you loss. Me and my family will keep you in our prayers.
---------- "Americans grew tired of being thought of as dumb by the rest of the world, so in 2008, they went to the polls and removed all doubt" ~~ unknown http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2x2W12A8Qow http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pXfHLUlZf4
2007-12-21 02:24:49
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