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| User Info | Reality .vs. Spin - Confidence And Trade in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 71435 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/1620-R....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-11-13 09:57:29
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Silvia2006 Posts: 14 Incept: 2009-05-15 Kansas City area
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So, the logical conclusion, assuming that the trade deficit number is correct, is that exports dropped. My understanding is that our exports are unprocessed food and raw materials like leather and wood. The Chinese are reducing their inventories that have built up?
2009-11-13 10:09:32
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Zeddicus Posts: 33 Incept: 2009-07-06 Galt's Gulch
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So then what accounts for the increase in imports?
2009-11-13 10:09:38
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Yaldor Posts: 1430 Incept: 2008-05-17
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This was fast KD. For me the important line in U of M: "Within the survey, the 12-month economic outlook index fell to 67, the lowest since April, from 81 in October" BTW, please look at Ca. Tax receipts numbers: http://www.sco.ca.gov/eo_pressrel_SCONew.... Quote:"October receipts alone were up $285 million (7.1%). I agree with one of your previous tickers the number to watch is CASH FLOW. (this applies everywhere) - The consumer sure watch his own cash flow. ---------- For every crash the probability of someone showing that he predicted it is near 1 . For every prediction of an imminent crash the probability of it being correct is almost zero Last modified:
2009-11-13 10:17:56 by yaldor
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Genesis Posts: 71435 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Inventory build, as I have noted, along with oil prices. But if sales do not follow..... ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me Last modified:
2009-11-13 10:13:32 by genesis
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Spurlockrj Posts: 9 Incept: 2009-03-08
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Karl - I was hoping you'd address this issue. I read the same article and just knew someone would spin the increase in the trade gap as good news. What portion of the increase in import costs is attributable to the weakness in the dollar? To what extent are we spending more dollars for the same amount of stuff?
2009-11-13 10:13:55
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Mayorquimby Posts: 5868 Incept: 2008-09-18 
Ponzi Planet
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Question - how is oil consumption figured into this? Calculated risk has a chart today showing our imports are nominally near 2006 levels which I find ludicrous but if so, we have a ways to go still....DOWN.
---------- It's a PONZI ECONOMY and it already HAS collapsed. Now they need more ponzi!
2009-11-13 10:14:32
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Jhonab Posts: 215 Incept: 2009-03-24 
Denmark
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"The U.S. trade deficit reached $36.5 billion in September, and the trade gap with China reached its highest level in nearly a year. WSJ Bloomberg: "Imports climbed 5.8 percent, the most since March 1993, to $168.4 billion. The figures reflected a $4.1 billion increase in imported oil as the cost of a barrel of crude climbed to the highest level since October 2008 and volumes also rose. Purchases of foreign-made autos and parts surged by $1.7 billion to $16.4 billion, due mainly to a $1.3 billion increase in imports from Canada and Mexico as North American vehicle production picked up. Imports from South Korea also climbed. The federal “cash for clunkers” auto trade-in program, which expired in late August, generated momentum in car sales and boosted demand for parts and supplies. Automotive inventory restocking is also boosting demand for foreign-made autos and parts. ... Exports rose 2.9 percent to $132 billion, the most this year, propelled by sales of civilian aircraft, industrial machines and petroleum products. The dollar this month was down 12 percent from a five-year high reached in March against a trade-weighted basket of currencies from it’s biggest trading partners. China’s economy grew 8.9 percent in the third quarter from the same period in 2008, the best performance in a year. Exports to the Asian nation were the highest since October, even as imports from China also climbed. Last modified:
2009-11-13 10:21:18 by jhonab
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Noelgallagher Posts: 105 Incept: 2009-10-23 Banned
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I wonder if reality will set in with these so called "experts" when CHristmas sales are horrible. Oh noooooooooooooo, panic!
2009-11-13 10:16:35
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Arkroyal Posts: 87 Incept: 2009-02-04 St. Augustine, FL
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M1 Multiplier down again: Date 2009-09-09 2009-09-23 2009-10-07 2009-10-21 2009-11-04 Value 0.925 0.902 0.882 0.852 0.831
2009-11-13 10:27:59
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Maitski Posts: 14 Incept: 2009-01-13 Atlanta
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I started keeping track of "state sales tax receipts" with Google News searches. I compiled the stories from various states http://activerain.com/blogsview/1329785/.... For October 2009 vs. October 2008: Georgia: -18.2%. The amount of revenue the Peach State pulled in from various taxes plunged 17.8 percent in October...sales tax revenue (down 18.2 percent) Missouri: -24.4%. The biggest drops last month were in sales taxes (down 24.4) Illinois: -15% The steepest drop continues to be in sales tax collections, which were down 15 percent, or $90 million, from the October 2008 collections Iowa: -9.1% Of foremost concern was an 18.2 percent drop in sales tax receipts -- half of which could be attributed to calendar-related issues -- that were "worrisome," Robinson said. Texas: -12.5% Sales tax collections have been declining statewide since February, according to a news release from Combs' office. October's collections totalled $1.52 billion, which was down 12.5 percent from October 2008 Nevada: -24.1% Statewide taxable sales for August 2009 of $3,076,350,687 represents a 24.1% decrease over August 2008 Rhode Island: -6.6% Sales-tax collections fell by $19.77 million, or 6.6 percent, to about $278.6 million Massachusettes: -5.5% Sales taxes came in at $404 million for the month, $60 million more than during October 2008. But state officials cautioned that the boost was not a sign of increased retail activity but rather the result of a higher tax rate and an expansion of the tax to cover more products. State Revenue Commissioner Navjeet K. Bal said in a prepared statement that had it not been for the changes, revenue for the category would have been down 5.5 percent from October 2008. Arkansas: -8.4% Gross receipts, mostly from sales tax revenue, totaled $163.1 million, a $15 million drop from last year and $6.9 million, or 4.1 percent, below forecast California: -9% while sales taxes were about 9 percent off. Kentucky: -4% Sales and use tax receipts were down about 4 percent. Tennessee: -7.8% Sales tax collections were $38.6 million less than the estimate for October. The October growth rate was negative 7.80 %
2009-11-13 10:35:28
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Blackswan Posts: 3602 Incept: 2007-11-06
Ponzi Roller Coaster
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What is really bad is these sales tax % drops are compared to ****y numbers from last year. I get the Nevada drop but wtf happened in Missouri: -24.4% ? ----------
2009-11-13 11:02:06
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Pauperbear Posts: 1407 Incept: 2008-01-22
norwalk, ct Online
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KD has repeatedly said the game playing on bank balance sheets will come when cash flow can no longer support the lie. It appears the same will happen to our .gov balance sheet as tax receipts (cash flow) hits the wall...now if only the creditors would figure out that we will never pay them back this **** would come to a head. We all assume that what spending happens is often people who know it's over and are maxing out cards to go out with a bang...looks like our .gov is doing the same thing. We get the .gov we deserve.
---------- The truth is incontrovertible, malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end; there it is. Winston Churchill
2009-11-13 11:12:01
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Vapor Posts: 1182 Incept: 2008-04-10
virginia
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Cash for clunkers I expect fueled this surge.
2009-11-13 13:34:24
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Tesla Posts: 8182 Incept: 2008-04-03
Delaware
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One other factor - food imports from South America start on October, which would up the imports.
---------- "Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." Samuel Adams I'd rather die on my feet than live on my knees. - Emiliano Zapata
2009-11-14 18:26:10
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