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| User Info | Prognostication: FOMC In An Hour UPDATED in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/1325-P....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me Last modified:
2009-08-12 14:31:38 by genesis
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Telenetworxx Posts: 2551 Incept: 2007-12-27 
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good read! thnx.
---------- This is why I don't post here anymore...
2009-08-12 12:57:31
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Eternalblue Posts: 4230 Incept: 2007-08-09
sokali
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Aren't energy companies already being hammered?
---------- my miniblog; http://economicpsychosis.blogspot.com/
2009-08-12 13:02:20
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Energy companies aren't the issue. The consumer is. If gas spikes higher on a dollar collapse you can forget any hope of a consumer recovery. That's a whack in the wallet that everyone feels instantly and there is nothing that Bernanke can do about it. In fact, he's got a lot of people who have lined up to profit from it if it happens. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-08-12 13:03:35
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Wisc-xc Posts: 4828 Incept: 2007-07-14
outside chicago Online
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Good stuff. TNX today seems to substantiate your view also. No front running there.
2009-08-12 13:03:54
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Digdouggler Posts: 2457 Incept: 2007-11-26
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Any faith I had in Bernanke doing the "right" thing went out the window back in March when he first announced the Q.E. program. The question is which is more sancrosanct to the Fed right now - the dollar/oil or housing? I say it's housing. The dollar/oil effs the consumer, but another dislocation in housing effs the banks. Banks come first. ---------- Droppin' off my keys in the jingle mail, **** an industry that's too big to fail. Folks all uptight about equity I'm chillin' in my rental with a 50" TV.
2009-08-12 13:09:57
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Killing the consumer kills housing as well. He took a crash in the market last fall, and it was intentional folks - right when the DX was sitting on a critical level. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-08-12 13:14:32
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Murf Posts: 2814 Incept: 2007-08-28
the surf
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Good analysis, hope you're right...
---------- The recovery up is losing steam
2009-08-12 13:15:18
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Themortgagedude Posts: 3930 Incept: 2007-12-17 
saint louis
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You want 4.5% mortgage rates. You cut out all the saving of banks, all the QE, drop the $8000 first time homebuyer program, drop health care reform, and pull the purse strings tight. Then you guarantee new issue MBS explicitly and demand 20% down on those loans which are securitized into guaranteed instruments. If Fannie/Freddie want to do riskier stuff they put it in pools which are not guaranteed. Until you show some fiscal responsiblity you will not get the low rates on the 10 yr that really should be priced in for what we are going thru.
---------- "These are interesting times. We don't trust the government, we don't trust the legal system, we don't trust the media, and we don't trust each other! We've undermined all authority, and with it, the basis for replacing it! It's like a six-year-old's dream come true!"
2009-08-12 13:19:46
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Future_shock Posts: 1143 Incept: 2007-10-16
Texas
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The problem with crude going up is it's going to hurt refiners bad this time around. Demand for finished fuels is already pretty weak. Commodities trade seems real crowded but end demand isn't there.
2009-08-12 13:20:04
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Right TMD, now try to make any of that happen. I wish you luck. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-08-12 13:20:29
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Cjworkman Posts: 5615 Incept: 2007-08-22
Online
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I agree he'll quietly do nothing. And just talk about potential signs of recovery. question is how the market reacts to a nothingburger... does it puke or salivate over it? ---------- Ben is going to create an equity bubble from excess liquidity that tops at 1200... and bottoms at 300. A bubble inside of bearish economic conditions, so that it never reaches new market highs and crashes far below the lows. - me
2009-08-12 13:21:03
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Koolaid Posts: 3171 Incept: 2007-07-23
Atlanta
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When has an FOMC meeting produced "the right thing"? And yet we keep thinking this time it's different...hope you're right.
2009-08-12 13:24:07
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Dji Posts: 720 Incept: 2009-04-21
Fleming Island
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he is stuck between the rock and the hard place. Sold his sole already to Lucifer. He will do NOTHING TODAY and then pull some under the table BS, next week. Killing the consumer, who is on life support now. ---------- What goes up Must come Down- Alan Parsons Project THE TRUTH HURTS! -Dji
2009-08-12 13:24:12
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Wisc-xc Posts: 4828 Incept: 2007-07-14
outside chicago Online
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If QE dies then bonds likely sell, perhaps hard, right? If old correlations hold then wouldn't that be an adrenaline shot, at least temporarily, for equities?
2009-08-12 13:24:56
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Its not about the right thing Kool. Its about which way he wants to take it in the ass. One way or the other this road leads directly to Hell. We're simply arguing over the route. If he tries to pump the markets with more QE oil will derail both the rally in the markets AND economic recovery. It did the last time and it will this time. The goal of his QE program - to drive 30yr mortgage money to 4% and hold it there - FAILED. Period. This is no longer debatable. The government turned around and issued into his monetization, destroying any hope of it working. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-08-12 13:26:08
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Asianbull Posts: 2184 Incept: 2007-09-03
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The dollar is going to collapse and commodities are going to shoot through the roof. Financials and Retailers are going to get destroyed.
---------- The root cause of all the world's problems is inflation. The only sound money in the world is commodities.
2009-08-12 13:26:34
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Koolaid Posts: 3171 Incept: 2007-07-23
Atlanta
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Didn't mean to imply that there's a "right thing"...was only referring to my net short equity bias...lol. The only way we get 4% mortgages is if this funny money stock rally goes back from whence it came.
2009-08-12 13:28:58
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Kool: Yep. The thing is Bernanke knows this. He can't buy back Treasury debt to force rates down as the government simply issues into him - a perfect circle jerk that does nothing. He also can't stop Treasury and Congress from doing it - he's bitched several times about it on The Hill but nothing indicates that they're going to stop. So he has only one way left to get rates down there - scare people. That's what he did last fall and it worked for a little while. Its also what he did in the spring. Now he has to either give up on stocks or give up on the dollar. The latter is more dangerous for him as he can't control the FX market, but he can swing the stock and bond markets around by the nose. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me Last modified:
2009-08-12 13:31:22 by genesis
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Nirvan45 Posts: 1578 Incept: 2007-10-31
florida
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Should we continue to say thank you or you already know it Thaanks for your time. But the problem with you/we are that we don't know what else he is got in that tool box that constantly being mentioned If he pulls another tool that can keep the sheet afloat and kick the can down the road in hope better time prevails, we have to find out Remembet interest rate been almost zero for almost 6 months or better, and we thought his bullet will run out at zero
2009-08-12 13:47:53
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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The buffet has run out. The only "help" to the economy has come from the government selling into his monetization and immediately spending it. Even with that - more than a trillion dollars worth - we still wound up with a negative 2Q GDP print, and that was with a 15% annualized Federal Spending rate of change (that's some 600 billion dollars in one quarter!) The bottle is dry kids; we're trying to get drunk on the fumes. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-08-12 13:54:01
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Themortgagedude Posts: 3930 Incept: 2007-12-17
saint louis
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Hey Gen. We can hope. The whole problem with this bubble driven economy is that nobody ever factors in the unintended consequences. And it's always the unintended consequences that get you.
---------- "These are interesting times. We don't trust the government, we don't trust the legal system, we don't trust the media, and we don't trust each other! We've undermined all authority, and with it, the basis for replacing it! It's like a six-year-old's dream come true!"
2009-08-12 13:59:39
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Oh on the contrary - there's a big part of me that wants him to announce he's driving QE to $1 trillion and watch the reaction in the bond and stock market. I'm getting into a mode where I am just going to grab the popcorn and sit back for the  ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-08-12 14:00:50
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Asimov Posts: 26716 Incept: 2007-08-26
east tennessee Online
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The only way for this announcment to be a "good" thing as far as market reaction will be some pretty unusual and innovative news. Extend QE, the bonds and stocks freak because it's already pretty damn rediculous -- turn off QE, bonds and stocks freak because they know exactly what's going to happen to these ****ty auctions that are being supported so strongly by the fed anyway. I think it's going to be bland and as much like the last as possible -- to keep from spooking the market. However, I also think that those bland, repetitive announcements are going to spook the market soon. Last month's was a good example of this, btw. If a market crash is what he wants, a few seemingly innoncent sentances (at first glance) will be PLENTY. We'll see. Remember, it's not exactly at 14:15, it's whenever they're ready... Ah, here it is. ---------- It's justifiably immoral to try to deal in a moral fashion with an immoral entity. If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
2009-08-12 14:16:20
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Karlmarxghost Posts: 2641 Incept: 2009-01-26
Stealing Your Property
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Green shoots from the FED. I call green ****s.....
---------- My views are my view and mine alone. Karl or ticker forum does not endorse or necessarily agree with my views. DO not trade on my views or take them personally.
2009-08-12 14:19:00
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