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| User Info | Price Inflation - Home Deflation in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26 
Royal Flush! 
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http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archi....
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-08-12 10:42:30
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Barnaby33 Posts: 517 Incept: 2007-07-24 
San Diego
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The sooner we recognize it the better off we will all be? I have at least one good friend who has been living off the HELOC on his Newport town home now for almost 18 months. He will not be better off. His standard of living will be smashed. I'd just like to point out Gen that much like Heroine, credit makes you feel really good. Most of these people actually now have an inkling of how ****ed they are when the credit runs out or rates for credit rise enough. They are going to fight tooth and nail because in their minds this will most definitely NOT be better off. We got here with mass participation in the delusion, those people who participated and that includes most of us in one form or another are going to take a pretty big hit. Hard work may pay off tomorrow, but laziness pays off now. ---------- Short taglines rule! 2008-08-12 10:55:40
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Bear Posts: 6466 Incept: 2007-07-10 
SoCal, and my avatar is so ****ing small you cant see it
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EXCELLENT......of course
---------- Cause GS got all the beef.....Mliu 2008-08-12 10:59:31
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Barnaby, the point is that the sooner we stop this **** the less-bad the ass**** will be.
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-08-12 11:00:35
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Barnaby33 Posts: 517 Incept: 2007-07-24
San Diego
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Agreed Gen, from a personal perspective. Occasionally though I like to visit the other side of the isle and see how the perspective over there. I think its extremely healthy, emotionally, not financially. Your position hasn't changed, you keep re-expounding on it. I just figured I'd add local color and offer a counterpoint to something you take as fait accompli. I suppose there is a bit of a warning bell that goes off in my head when I see any blanket statement, but you'd never get anything accomplished in life or writing if you couldn't use generalization. ---------- Short taglines rule! 2008-08-12 11:50:56
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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What continues to shock me is how the so-called "policy wonks" keep stating the opposite. It gets stupid to the point of the Monty Python "Dead Parrot" skit after a while. You keep hearing them say that "it'll al be ok" but the middle class and those in debt keep sinking further and further, and the evidence keeps piling up that they're wrong, but they keep saying the same thing over and over again. I don't get it. At some point you have to look at the evidence and say "no, its not going to happen this way; I ****ed up", bu5t you just never hear that from people like Bernanke. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-08-12 11:53:29
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Steelpiston71 Posts: 1804 Incept: 2007-09-05 Michigan
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Cattle is selling for between .91 and .93 per pound at the stockyard, per my brother in law yesterday. For those unfamiliar, that is the entire weight of the animal on the scale.
---------- "The Data Do Not Lie", Mr Mortgage (aka Hedgefundmanip), April 16th March Foreclosure Crisis Video. 2008-08-12 12:24:11
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Emb145 Posts: 8182 Incept: 2007-08-25
Orlando, Florida
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Gen, The denial is still there in huge quantities. Anecdotal: Having beers yesterday with a few colleagues of mine here in Orlando. 2 of the guys have been trying to sell their houses in St. Louis, and one of the guys finacee is also sitting on a house which she can't sell. Another dude has two alligator mortgages down in S. Florida. Collectively, they all agreed that as soon as they could sell their places, they will buy here in the Orlando/Spacecoast area, because now is a great time to get in due to the price drops.  These are all college educated, professional types. People just believe the Pied Piper, STILL. Morons. It's like they're children, completely incapable of rational, independent thought. ---------- It's the age of hobos: Prepare to teach your children how to grift. 2008-08-12 13:00:23
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Orlando/Space Coast is a ****ing MESS. I looked down there in 2000 - no ****ing way. There is only ONE thing that looked good around there, and that was that with a 3 year old, it was an hour or less to Disney. That was literally it. The cookie-cutterism and horse**** was unbelieveable, and the cost of living only slightly less so. The last time we were down there I went into an ordinary (not on resort property) grocery store to buy a few things. I about **** in my pants at the prices. Its even worse further south towards Miami. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me Last modified:
2008-08-12 13:04:04 by genesis
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Bubblesee Posts: 3620 Incept: 2007-06-27
nyc
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Inflation/Deflation - The most discussed topic on TF rears its head again. I think you have it right for the short term. I also beleive the powers that be would only hyperinflate if they felt there was no other choice. Which is why they REALLY have to change course and straighten things out now.....screw up bad enough and they could find themselves in a VERY precarious predicament a couple years from now...... BTW - i heard stories a few months ago (and posted them on the forum) from people in farm areas about the cattle slaughters. After a while it only makes sense that prices of beef will rise........its funny because even though i dont eat a whole lot of red meat i had thought of stockpiling my freezer when i heard the stories. Probably will wish i had a few months from now - lol. ---------- Ticker Forum Special: "Bennie and the Feds" Melody:Elton John Lyrics:Bubblesee http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etfVMtCq9Oc (Larry Kudblow eat your heart out) Last modified:
2008-08-12 13:26:27 by bubblesee
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Sushihorn Posts: 5632 Incept: 2007-10-22
Arlington, TX
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Gen Isn't it ironic that beef prices didn't move much while corn was going to the Moooooon. But now that the CRB is getting slaughtered, the impact starts to hit as the herds have already been thinned? I guess the equity market isn't the only one that "acts so as to impose the maximum amount of pain" eh? ---------- http://jengafinance.blogspot.com/ You can't fix stupid ... but you can kill it. 2008-08-12 14:19:13
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Themortgagedude Posts: 3343 Incept: 2007-12-17
saint louis
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Just ****ed I didn't do the trade on beef. Talked it over with several people and it's probably still a good trade. Oh well you can't trade everything.
---------- Since September it's just gotten colder and colder. There's less daylight now, I've noticed too. This can only mean one thing - the sun is going out. In a few more months the Earth will be a dark and lifeless ball of ice. 2008-08-12 15:05:20
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Bluntfacts Posts: 693 Incept: 2007-10-09 Las Vegas, Nevada
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In a prior post, Steelpiston said: "Cattle is selling for between .91 and .93 per pound at the stockyard, per my brother in law yesterday. For those unfamiliar, that is the entire weight of the animal on the scale." For disclosure purposes, I have never traded cattle futures. But I do see the number every night on the Nightly Business Report. I am pretty sure I saw $1.06 or $1.07 during last nights program. If true, that is about the highest I have ever seen. Is this important? Maybe. Since the whole country seems to be for sale, what if others buy our food companies? Do we let ADM get bought out by foreigners? K? CPB? HNZ? ---------- "Will someone come on TV and tell the truth about how bad it is". Jim Cramer August 2007. "We can change the focus to a soft blur; or sharpen it to crystal clarity" The Outer Limits 1964. 2008-08-12 15:48:17
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Bw8472 Posts: 6446 Incept: 2007-06-28
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Homes aren't deflating all across the nation. Homes in the Midwest are getting more expensive not less, the whole thing is a mixed bag of crap really. It equates to the US getting poorer on the average, less purchasing power all around, yeah houses will cost less of your budget but if food triples and your housing budget falls by 25% are you really richer or poorer? You're seeing a pie chart for everyone of us change, it used to be x percentage for housing, that took off and is now comming back down, more for some than others but the other parts of the average monthly budget are crowding out the gaps opened up. What quality of life that pie chart bought is either getting bigger or it's getting smaller, wake me up when cell phones give blow jobs I'll start to think my fortunes have reversed. ---------- At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide. ~Abraham Lincoln Last modified:
2008-08-12 17:19:04 by bw8472
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Allclear Posts: 3641 Incept: 2007-09-18
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great article, and the video was awesome. I had some questions though. If a homeowner walks away from their home, are there tax implications associated with that decision. I remember (vaguely) reading something to the effect that homeowners would be liable for the loss which would increase their tax burden for that year. Not sure how that might work out but it sounds to simple to abandon a contract, essentially scott-free. On the video, you mentioned that gold has the potential to fall further. As we saw earlier in the year, oil took the first step in the commodity correction (which befuddles me that gold bugs did not see that they were next!). Do you think oil will again precede the further decline of gold? If financials do get ugly, I understand the stampede to gold and possibly other commodities. This time around, if it is truly ugly for financials, gold may be a safe harbor of sorts and a decline may not be imminent. Is there something to gauge this from the past? ---------- Many of the truths we cling to depend greatly on our point of view...Obi-Wan 2008-08-12 19:56:29
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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When the **** really hits the fan ALL assets get sold because Mr. Margin Clerk insists that it be so. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-08-12 21:30:20
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Bozonian Posts: 13051 Incept: 2007-09-01
PFT - Pure F'n Tin Online
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Don't worry. Demand destruction will work for beef too. Even better, India won't be a demand center!
---------- If deficits don't matter, then the Federal Government can borrow the money it needs and stop taxing the citizens. Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice. 2008-08-12 21:32:06
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Bozonian Posts: 13051 Incept: 2007-09-01
PFT - Pure F'n Tin Online
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Quote:I have at least one good friend who has been living off the HELOC on his Newport town home now for almost 18 months. He will not be better off. His standard of living will be smashed. God, I worked with masses of San Fernando Valley bubble heads, 22 year olds throwing around numbers like 800,000, "Oh yeah, we're going to take out this wall, add another patio and pool. It's going to be about 200k but it's free money right?" The funny thing is, it's going to be the Middle Class in the wealthy areas that are going to take the damage. By the way, my parents house in West Los Angeles is STILL gaining value. When is LA going to collapse? What the hell is holding it up? ---------- If deficits don't matter, then the Federal Government can borrow the money it needs and stop taxing the citizens. Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice. 2008-08-12 21:36:13
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Meltdown Posts: 977 Incept: 2008-03-18
FL
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Arrrrgh! This is killing me. I don't want to walk away. I know I'm going to take a hit, but in the end - blast it! I have figured out that if I take the extra money from DH's new job (living tight) for the next two years, I can get us right side up again (with what would be sufficient equity for a new loan done the right way). If I keep paying down, the house can be paid for totally by 2015 with an interest savings of $168,000, which is more than the house is worth now. In the long run, it seems to me that since I am lucky enough to be in a position to do this, even if I weren't upside down now, I am still going to pay less for the house than even having a 30 year loan on market value now (from the interest savings). In my case I can't see walking. Am I wrong? ---------- VICTORY BELONGS TO THE RELENTLESS! 2008-08-13 07:23:07
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Bergziege Posts: 1050 Incept: 2007-09-08
Central IL
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All the major insurers increased FL premiums by 50% or more. Thats gonna add hurt!
---------- Luckily for me, a High Standard of Living is easy. All I require is Internet, a tv dinner and a blowjob and I'm the richest guy in the world. - Bozonian I've been chasing holes all my life and it doesn't always turn out bad. - Bozonian 2008-08-13 07:56:37
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Meltdown Posts: 977 Incept: 2008-03-18
FL
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Mine doesn't renew till December, so I'll let you know. But I have USAA and they normally are not as bad as the rest of the insurance companies. It also depends how close to the water you are. A 50% hit to me would be about $500/yr, but for those I know beachside it could be huge (since it's already ridiculous).
---------- VICTORY BELONGS TO THE RELENTLESS! 2008-08-13 08:29:58
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Banditfist Posts: 272 Incept: 2007-09-20
Baltimore, Maryland
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Meltdown, I have USAA as well. Smart company! I used to live on the Space Coast. Want to get back there someday. Will consider a condo on the beach. But, USAA sent a letter over two years ago that they would no longer insure second homes/vacation home in Florida. Gen or anyone....in regards to HELOCs and second mortgages, don't most have a call option? What are the restrictions to the call and why wouldn't second lenders be wanting to get even a dollar back compared to nothing? ---------- "Are you sure you can't remember?" "I'm sure I can't remember" ~ Ben Bernake 25 Jun 2009 2008-08-13 08:49:07
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Barnaby33 Posts: 517 Incept: 2007-07-24
San Diego
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Bozonian, he's not a 20-30 something he's 50. Thats why this is so evil. How he justifies it is, "he's having some fun now." The implication being that he won't be able to forever. Problem is what happens in your 60's when people don't want to hire you and your health declines. As to west LA, my sister sold her house off Hauser and Olympic 2 years ago and bought a Culver city condo. Its already declined a good 50-75k. West LA is showing weakness same as everywhere else, maybe just not as much. My only thought about LA, other than never wanting to live there is that its biggest industry is entertainment, which tends to be counter cyclical. People goto movies and watch TV more in recessions. They also drink more! ---------- Short taglines rule! 2008-08-13 12:13:20
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Openwater747 Posts: 1179 Incept: 2007-08-22
Panglossian Paradise
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Aug cow $103.12 Aug Feeder (cute cows) $114 and change 2008-08-13 15:00:45
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Bluntfacts Posts: 693 Incept: 2007-10-09 Las Vegas, Nevada
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In prior post, Karl said: "ALL assets get sold because Mr. Margin Clerk insists that it be so." Now Karl, you know have to sort of harass you because that is what "they" make me do. But the above quoted line is FREAKING HYSTERICAL because it has to be. In another thread, I think Pika said 18% went to 36%. Maybe I am just feeling some impact, but isn't this whole mess because NO ONE seems to know WHAT they bet? Or..in the Pika example, you make the bet and that it is unilaterally changed? Okay. Calm down Blunt. My credit card has zero balance. But I am getting the feeling that IF I could even read the damn agreement, "they" could DEMAND immediate re-payment. Is that how it works? ---------- "Will someone come on TV and tell the truth about how bad it is". Jim Cramer August 2007. "We can change the focus to a soft blur; or sharpen it to crystal clarity" The Outer Limits 1964. 2008-08-13 21:18:43
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