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| User Info | PMI: Heh, An Actual Good Number! in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 66464 Incept: 2007-06-26 
Royal Flush! 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/1569-P....
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2009-11-02 10:59:30
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Howie Posts: 3027 Incept: 2007-11-02 
Wilmington, DE
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Is there any way for the government to manipulate this report?
---------- "Send lawyers, guns and money, the **** has hit the fan." - Warren Zevon 2009-11-02 11:03:08
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Genesis Posts: 66464 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Sure, probably. There are a lot of disbelievers in durability if the internals are correct. I think they're right and this is a false dawn, but we'll see. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2009-11-02 11:04:12
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Howie Posts: 3027 Incept: 2007-11-02
Wilmington, DE
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I know that where I work things have picked up substantially from last winter, but they are nowhere near where they were last year, and they seem to be leveling off. We sell into a broad variety of industries, including Semiconductor, petroleum production and exploration, pharmaceutical, automotive, chemical production and aerospace.
---------- "Send lawyers, guns and money, the **** has hit the fan." - Warren Zevon Last modified:
2009-11-02 11:09:28 by howie
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Spazznout Posts: 177 Incept: 2009-04-15 Columbus, Ohio
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Karl, help me understand how we can have this "good" PMI report this week with a weak PCI/spend report. The 2 dont seem to make sense when looking at them in context. Without consumer spending where is this increase demand driving production higher??? Understandable some is being driven by .gov stimuli programs. KD if you or someone else could help me undrstand why these .gov reports vs private reports vs their own reports dont seem to be describing the same economy...hell the same reality anymore. Its as if they have all built a paradigm of how things should be in their world view and they are sticking to it no matter what the reality dictates. Can we believe ANYTHING they tell us anymore.....or am I way off base here??? ---------- "Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable." John F. Kennedy 35th president of US 1961-1963 (1917 - 1963) 2009-11-02 11:13:48
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Spazznout Posts: 177 Incept: 2009-04-15 Columbus, Ohio
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bilge ...somehow double posted...sorry ---------- "Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable." John F. Kennedy 35th president of US 1961-1963 (1917 - 1963) Last modified:
2009-11-02 11:15:50 by spazznout
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Genesis Posts: 66464 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Spazz, there is a substantial lead between production and utilization. The "false dawn" can lead producers to ramp up production - which is a DISASTER if final demand doesn't show up. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2009-11-02 11:25:19
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Mayorquimby Posts: 4463 Incept: 2008-09-18 United States of Mortgages
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Wait for the revision. When those bs games stop...
---------- - It is impossible to introduce into society a greater evil than this - the conversion of the law into an instrument of plunder. - Government is a great fiction, by which everybody tries to live at the expense of everybody else. - Bastiat 2009-11-02 11:26:15
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Pika-steph Posts: 37242 Incept: 2007-09-11
^Why I keep^ fighting; so he is not fighting for nothing. Online
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Could this ramp up all have been driven by the stimulus and its expectations?
---------- Stop the Looting; Start Prosecuting - http://www.FedUpUSA.org  "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system, but too early to shoot the bastards." 2009-11-02 11:33:35
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Genesis Posts: 66464 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Yes.
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2009-11-02 11:34:24
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Markytom Posts: 179 Incept: 2009-02-19
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Are producers just building inventory and putting it in warehouses? There doesn't seem to be much evidence for increases in shipping - boat, RR, or truck. Also, there have been many store closings so there aren't as many retail outlets to sell stuff from - where is all the new product going to go?
2009-11-02 11:34:27
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Arkady Posts: 94 Incept: 2009-10-19
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Karl, what does 'false down' mean? Are producers ramping up production for the very same reason we have been living in bubble land for decades? Are they feeling the infusion of cheap cash? This is what the central bank wants I just cannot believe they are actually pulling this off... Should this not end in a disaster? It's not like our debt has shrunk to the point where we can actually afford anything. 2009-11-02 11:34:29
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Cjworkman Posts: 5015 Incept: 2007-08-22
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i tell you this... i've been waiting for a piece of furniture i ordered July freaking 6th... the bitch still hasn't delivered. they are still manufacturing my furniture that was paid for over 4 months ago. ---------- Ben is going to create an equity bubble from excess liquidity that tops at 1200... and bottoms at 300. A bubble inside of bearish economic conditions, so that it never reaches new market highs and crashes far below the lows. - me 2009-11-02 11:34:59
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Pika-steph Posts: 37242 Incept: 2007-09-11
^Why I keep^ fighting; so he is not fighting for nothing. Online
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Genesis wrote..Yes. That possibility and its implications are TRULY frightening. I was really hoping that stimulus wasn't really a possibility - that there was really some there there. ---------- Stop the Looting; Start Prosecuting - http://www.FedUpUSA.org "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system, but too early to shoot the bastards." Last modified:
2009-11-02 11:38:06 by pika-steph
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Tank Posts: 308 Incept: 2007-12-14 
Seattle Area
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Ok, let's say this is legit. What percentage of our economy is manufacturing? If it's, say, 10%, then this area can double but not be that huge of an effect on the overall economy.
---------- "A danger foreseen is half avoided." -Thomas Fuller (1608-1661) 2009-11-02 11:39:19
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Rbarreira Posts: 892 Incept: 2009-05-27 Sweden
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Quote:Could this ramp up all have been driven by the stimulus and its expectations? Is there anything which isn't? 2009-11-02 11:42:06
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Blackswan Posts: 3362 Incept: 2007-11-06
Execution Pit Online
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Pika - That possibility and its implications are TRULY frightening. I guess that would be like going 105 mph into the wall instead of 65 mph. ---------- The market can crash further then you can remain short. Trade the moon cycle not the tape you want. 2009-11-02 11:43:23
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Howie Posts: 3027 Incept: 2007-11-02
Wilmington, DE
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I know my company and most of our customers drew down inventories too much and have been scrambling to rebuild due to ****ed off customers waiting for orders.
---------- "Send lawyers, guns and money, the **** has hit the fan." - Warren Zevon 2009-11-02 11:48:04
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Asimov Posts: 21236 Incept: 2007-08-26
east tennessee Online
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False dawn:Quote:The zodiacal light is a faint, roughly triangular, whitish glow seen in the night sky which appears to extend up from the vicinity of the sun along the ecliptic or zodiac. It is so faint that it is completely masked by either moonlight or light pollution. The zodiacal light decreases in intensity with distance from the Sun, but on very dark nights it has been observed in a band completely around the ecliptic. In fact, the zodiacal light covers the entire sky, being responsible for 60% of the total skylight on a moonless night. There is also a very faint, but still slightly increased, oval glow directly opposite the Sun which is known as the gegenschein.  might be of interest: Quote:The Islamic Prophet Muhammed is known to have described zodiacal light in reference to the timing of the five daily prayers, calling it the "false dawn," (Arabic: al-fajr al-khaadib). Muslim oral tradition preserves numerous sayings, or hadith, in which Muhammed describes the difference between the light of false dawn, appearing in the sky long after sunset, and the light of the first band of horizontal light at sunrise, the true dawn. Practitioners of Islam use Muhammed's descriptions of zodiacal light to avoid errors in determining the timing of daily prayers. ---------- It's justifiably immoral to try to deal in a moral fashion with an immoral entity. If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente. 2009-11-02 11:50:23
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Snowman Posts: 785 Incept: 2009-03-09
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had a meeting last week with the head of sales at a global manufacturing company. They sell equipment and components to big manufacturers from a very wide industrial base. He said their orders are barely increasing and nearly entirely focused on equipment upgrades, not new machines. Many of their customers have downsized so sharply they have some, not much, money left over. They can't get much bank and/or market funding, so they are using spare cash to upgrade instead of "splurging" on brand new (which is usually capex financed by the markets/banks). Their customers are buying because they are seizing the moment when replacement and upgrade prices are low, not because they anticipate end user demand (ie consumer) right now. Exceptions include the people buying who cover medical and military - those production lines are ramping up. 2009-11-02 11:51:29
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Stoverny Posts: 197 Incept: 2009-02-25
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I do get the impression that those who still have jobs are feeling less worried about getting laid off. There is a feeling that the worst is over, at least as as far as layoffs go. Malls seem busier, people are spending although not on big-ticket items. However, how can consumer demand recover to even CLOSE to where it was before, given the housing bust and the collapse in consumer credit? 2009-11-02 11:57:45
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Knobcreek Posts: 928 Incept: 2009-02-06
Near TN & VA, but not SC
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If this 30% interest rate thing is as widespread as it seems, can't imagine big-ticket anything selling for ****. Lots of folks I know have been in no/limited spending mode. Actually discovering that lifestyle changes are irrelevant relative to the risk of not building spending that $$. I'm not suggesting it's to be a vast generation change in US consumer spending habits, for more many folks they will never be that 'traditional" US consumer of old. 2009-11-02 12:06:28
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Kuhio Posts: 203 Incept: 2008-12-31
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You guys still seem to be easily distracted by short term trends - even if the these statistics represent valid information. In other words, so what; what does it portend in the big picture? Here's the take away facts everyone should keep their eyes & checkbooks. The entire global economy was based upon: (a) appreciating real estate prices that escalated far in excess of any possible carrying capacity (ie income : debt ratios); (b) fraudulent real estate securitization activities that permeated all sectors of the economy, including, no actually ABETTED by governments around the world (to fund welfare states), that resulted in massive credit/money inflation; (c) pulled forward consumer, business & government spending + commitments for unsustainable/unfunded future obligations driven by the credit flows made available from (b). Unless & until we return to a, b & c, there isn't any "real" economy to speak of that would represent even a tiny fraction of demand. It's like an entire town dependent on a mine; once it's played out, there is no longer any there, there. We witness the truly profound nature of this essential truth by the daily actions of "our" government. What could possibly compel them to not only completely ignore the Constitution, but literally turn away from millenia of jurisprudence regarding business, finance, contracts, etc? They know the truth of the matter, which is why they couldn't possible give a sh!t about the consequences. Clue in. Last modified:
2009-11-02 12:52:47 by kuhio
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Mtdm Posts: 60 Incept: 2009-07-23
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Kuhio, as much as I agree with your general sentiment, I can think of lots of other answers to your question "What could possibly compel them to not only completely ignore the Constitution, but literally turn away from millenia of jurisprudence regarding business, finance, contracts, etc?" than that they know and are reacting to the truth of the matter. Here are but a few possible alternatives: -- they are self-serving and seek to protect their own and their friends' and donors' interests -- they couldn't care less about millenia of jurisprudence, especially when they see no likelihood of being thrown in jail for their lack of care -- they have never read the Constitution and will happily swear whatever oath is presented to them so long as it means they can take their seat, their salary and their perks -- (and, in some cases) they're a bunch of socialists who know full well what they're doing and want nothing more than to rend asunder the status quo ante Last modified:
2009-11-02 14:21:48 by mtdm
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Hihoherewego Posts: 507 Incept: 2009-02-25
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I'll say a very temporary dawn with a soon to follow extended real eclipse. If you consider the container ships languishing off Singapore etc., the Baltic Dry Index, then match that with the holidays what I'm seeing is a blip in filling perceived upcoming consumption only to the extent that near just in time inventory replenishments can justify, supplanted by China and India in concert inflating their own asset bubbles with everyone else's attempts of devaluing their own currencies in a race to the bottom. Then domestically there's CIT's bankruptcy and subsequent tightening of credit lines even further where you have Middle-America small business facing enormous uphill obstacles just to keep their doors open. Then there's the prospect of future hyper-inflation as a byproduct of the U.S. printing press working overtime to buy their own debt. Wrap it all up into a nice fat slimy ball of a commercial real estate collapse, continuing job losses, a government-induced stimulus interfering with the free market, a tightening of credit for consumer and business together with increasing short-term credit interest rates and other banking related fees, burgeoning state tax rate increases and imploding property, sales tax and other like revenues, a weakening dollar causing needed essential items to price inflate, and this 'dawn' is headed for one hell of a flaming sunset. Last but not least, I don't believe for a nano-moment pretty much anything coming out of official politically-inspired powers that be as truthful in any sense of the imagination - and particularly when it's directed to affect the consumption sentiments of over-indebted under wage producing masses assisting in achieving the ultimate goal of ensuring their retention of power via kicking the can down the road at all costs regardless of their already broken backs. Other than that Denninger, it's encouraging. .............................. http://www.usdebtclock.org/ Last modified:
2009-11-02 14:33:50 by hihoherewego
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