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Genesis Posts: 71430 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/756-On....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-01-30 08:05:20
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Shrpblnd Posts: 1169 Incept: 2007-08-06 
Los Angeles, CA
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Outstanding!! I have nothing else to add.
2009-01-30 08:17:40
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Logicaloutlaw Posts: 614 Incept: 2008-01-23 Online
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Wow.
---------- All the money you make will never buy back your soul. - Bob Dylan, Masters Of War
2009-01-30 08:27:52
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Sideler Posts: 805 Incept: 2007-11-10 
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This is getting beyond frightening. Am I understanding this correctly? When the 30 yr bond falls with the main market, does this signal inflation?
2009-01-30 08:29:03
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Genesis Posts: 71430 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Sideler, not necessarily. Bonds go down in price when you don't think you're going to get paid back too. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-01-30 08:31:47
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Machimoodus Posts: 54 Incept: 2008-09-15
Down East
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Thank you for never giving up.
2009-01-30 08:32:18
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Jubber Posts: 4242 Incept: 2007-07-05
UK
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Genesis, do you think the Chinese will join Ben on the bid?...or hit it?
---------- "War is God's way of teaching Americans geography." Ambrose Bierce "The Emperor realized that the people were right but could not admit to that. He though it better to continue the procession under the illusion that anyone who couldn't see his clothes was either stupid or incompetent." Hans Christia
2009-01-30 08:34:50
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Genesis Posts: 71430 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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They'd be nuts to join him. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-01-30 08:36:14
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Jubber Posts: 4242 Incept: 2007-07-05
UK
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Yep, that's what I thought, ..but will they???
---------- "War is God's way of teaching Americans geography." Ambrose Bierce "The Emperor realized that the people were right but could not admit to that. He though it better to continue the procession under the illusion that anyone who couldn't see his clothes was either stupid or incompetent." Hans Christia
2009-01-30 08:38:52
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Genesis Posts: 71430 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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No
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-01-30 08:39:33
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Asimov Posts: 26708 Incept: 2007-08-26
east tennessee
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We'll go the war route before we collapse as a nation. The wonderous leaders will see to that. Hm... Who has resources, would require huge amounts of ground troops yet would offer little in the way of high level resistance... Oh, and isn't 1/2 way around the world. *Looks north* Hm... Damn I'm glad I'm being sarcastic, because that's a scary thought. ---------- It's justifiably immoral to try to deal in a moral fashion with an immoral entity. If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
2009-01-30 08:47:48
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Rrman Posts: 3373 Incept: 2007-10-27
Baton Rouge, LA
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yeah watch the Canadian Bacon Movie lol
2009-01-30 08:49:00
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Ruffcut Posts: 2201 Incept: 2007-07-07 Mushagain Online
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On #4 dirty little secret, are you implying that these level 3 assets are more than MBS with the underlying colateral, but has alot of derivatives mixed into the clutter????
---------- Support locally, and **** off globally!
2009-01-30 09:13:42
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Genesis Posts: 71430 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Yep Ruffcut. A lot of those "Level 3" assets are in fact synthetics and have no actual collateral behind them at all. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-01-30 09:14:16
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Brucelee Posts: 837 Incept: 2007-09-12 detroit, mi
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gen, i ask this a million times and never get a straight answer. why would they prolong the inevitable at this point? they've been screwing around for long enough and i don't understand why someone with some intelligence whether politically or financially hasn't stepped up. the only conclusion i can draw is they want a reset so they don't have to pay back the debt.
---------- "There is no way it can be allowed to be more prosperous than those it has failed, and those who pay its salaries." - Bozonian
2009-01-30 09:24:32
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Ruffcut Posts: 2201 Incept: 2007-07-07 Mushagain Online
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Like expired OTM puts, all securitized and packaged as marketable assets? A CDS exposure product, tied to leveraged MBS contracts, tied to leveraged CDO's, tied to a pile of defaulting debt, tied to a small amount of foreclosed homes they can't sell?
---------- Support locally, and **** off globally!
2009-01-30 09:25:43
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Thetransporter Posts: 882 Incept: 2008-11-22
IL
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I'm a novice so go easy. But when I read the proposals put forth by you Gen I agree with them. My thought is this... doing those things won't stop the plunge, all they will do is lay the groundwork for the rebuild? I feel like our bed has been made we are lying in it, will we set the alarm (your proposals) to get up in the morning or not. The or not leads us to a huge reset of american society i think, more so than just a revamp of banking and investment.
---------- I guess the employees stuffing cash into their cars and management shredding all documents probably prompted the FDIC to get off their reluctant asses and do something today. --Scribe
2009-01-30 09:27:48
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Genesis Posts: 71430 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Its worse than that Ruff. They created these synthetics off cash flows that are off OTHER synthetics that "mirror" actual assets. If you have a bond that pays 6% you can create a synthetic off that reference instrument that also pays 6%. Then you can roll those things up into a synthetic CDO or CMO or CLO that in fact has no real underlying value to it whatsoever. If the counterparty on that underlying synthetic can't pay the entire structure becomes worthless all at once. Thet - correct - it won't stop the plunge. But it will make it LESS BAD in that it will happen and be OVER. The longer we keep ****ing around the longer it goes on and the worse it is. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me Last modified:
2009-01-30 09:28:35 by genesis
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Thetransporter Posts: 882 Incept: 2008-11-22
IL
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Where can i find the video from last evening on the forum?
---------- I guess the employees stuffing cash into their cars and management shredding all documents probably prompted the FDIC to get off their reluctant asses and do something today. --Scribe
2009-01-30 09:35:45
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Genesis Posts: 71430 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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You have to be a gold donor TheTransporter. See the FAQ. Gold donors have access to a number of forums and features that aren't visible to non-gold donors; one of them is a most-nights technical analysis video that I produce, typically 15-20 minutes in length. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-01-30 09:37:08
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Heffalump Posts: 93 Incept: 2008-04-05
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Gen - stock market moves are multiplicative, not additive. The calculation would be 800 / 1300 x 810, giving about 500 for SP target. (Not to deny that even this move would slam everybody speechless). ---------- "If rate I raise, burst, the frothy bubble will. If rates I lower, inflation will I get. Unclear, is the housing market."
2009-01-30 09:40:02
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Genesis Posts: 71430 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Nope Heffa. These patterns have been quite reliable over time; the counterbalance to this particular pattern is that in every Bear market thus far - including The Depression - the money shot has been to GO LONG as these patterns have broke the wrong way. However - that doesn't mean this one will. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-01-30 09:41:27
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Heffalump Posts: 93 Incept: 2008-04-05
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I'm not arguing the pattern but its interpretation. We can safely forget the difference between adding and multiplying if the changes are small enough - it makes for simpler calculations. I see an analogy with your own example of exponential growth - 3% for 3 years is close enough to 9%, but follow that road a bit longer and the results are completely different. In this SP target calculation, I do not think that additive interpretation is correct. ---------- "If rate I raise, burst, the frothy bubble will. If rates I lower, inflation will I get. Unclear, is the housing market."
2009-01-30 09:49:19
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Thetransporter Posts: 882 Incept: 2008-11-22
IL
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I don't see a possibility of any sustained rally to take SP above 900 at all. What could take us there?
---------- I guess the employees stuffing cash into their cars and management shredding all documents probably prompted the FDIC to get off their reluctant asses and do something today. --Scribe
2009-01-30 10:06:03
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Mtgspy Posts: 6121 Incept: 2007-10-27
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TNX grinding up again, when is the cavalry showing up? They're not gonna let their hands forced this time?
---------- It sounds antiquated, merchantilistic - until you figured out that I was hoarding for war.
2009-01-30 10:06:16
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