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| User Info | On The Edge Of The Abyss in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26 
Royal Flush! 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/756-On....
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2009-01-30 08:05:20
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Shrpblnd Posts: 1119 Incept: 2007-08-06 
Los Angeles, CA
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Outstanding!! I have nothing else to add.
2009-01-30 08:17:40
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Logicaloutlaw Posts: 609 Incept: 2008-01-23
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Wow.
---------- All the money you make will never buy back your soul. - Bob Dylan, Masters Of War 2009-01-30 08:27:52
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Sideler Posts: 742 Incept: 2007-11-10 
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This is getting beyond frightening. Am I understanding this correctly? When the 30 yr bond falls with the main market, does this signal inflation? 2009-01-30 08:29:03
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Sideler, not necessarily. Bonds go down in price when you don't think you're going to get paid back too. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2009-01-30 08:31:47
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Machimoodus Posts: 46 Incept: 2008-09-15
Down East
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Thank you for never giving up.
2009-01-30 08:32:18
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Jubber Posts: 3999 Incept: 2007-07-05
UK
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Genesis, do you think the Chinese will join Ben on the bid?...or hit it?
---------- "War is God's way of teaching Americans geography." Ambrose Bierce "The Emperor realized that the people were right but could not admit to that. He though it better to continue the procession under the illusion that anyone who couldn't see his clothes was either stupid or incompetent." Hans Christia 2009-01-30 08:34:50
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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They'd be nuts to join him. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2009-01-30 08:36:14
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Jubber Posts: 3999 Incept: 2007-07-05
UK
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Yep, that's what I thought, ..but will they???
---------- "War is God's way of teaching Americans geography." Ambrose Bierce "The Emperor realized that the people were right but could not admit to that. He though it better to continue the procession under the illusion that anyone who couldn't see his clothes was either stupid or incompetent." Hans Christia 2009-01-30 08:38:52
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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No
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2009-01-30 08:39:33
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Asimov Posts: 21232 Incept: 2007-08-26
east tennessee Online
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We'll go the war route before we collapse as a nation. The wonderous leaders will see to that. Hm... Who has resources, would require huge amounts of ground troops yet would offer little in the way of high level resistance... Oh, and isn't 1/2 way around the world. *Looks north* Hm... Damn I'm glad I'm being sarcastic, because that's a scary thought. ---------- It's justifiably immoral to try to deal in a moral fashion with an immoral entity. If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente. 2009-01-30 08:47:48
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Rrman Posts: 3194 Incept: 2007-10-27
Baton Rouge, LA
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yeah watch the Canadian Bacon Movie lol
2009-01-30 08:49:00
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Ruffcut Posts: 1784 Incept: 2007-07-07 Mushagain
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On #4 dirty little secret, are you implying that these level 3 assets are more than MBS with the underlying colateral, but has alot of derivatives mixed into the clutter????
---------- If *******s could fly, then DC and wallstreet would be airports. "I'm sick of being sick about this ****" J0nx 2009-01-30 09:13:42
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Yep Ruffcut. A lot of those "Level 3" assets are in fact synthetics and have no actual collateral behind them at all. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2009-01-30 09:14:16
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Brucelee Posts: 835 Incept: 2007-09-12 detroit, mi
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gen, i ask this a million times and never get a straight answer. why would they prolong the inevitable at this point? they've been screwing around for long enough and i don't understand why someone with some intelligence whether politically or financially hasn't stepped up. the only conclusion i can draw is they want a reset so they don't have to pay back the debt.
---------- "There is no way it can be allowed to be more prosperous than those it has failed, and those who pay its salaries." - Bozonian 2009-01-30 09:24:32
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Ruffcut Posts: 1784 Incept: 2007-07-07 Mushagain
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Like expired OTM puts, all securitized and packaged as marketable assets? A CDS exposure product, tied to leveraged MBS contracts, tied to leveraged CDO's, tied to a pile of defaulting debt, tied to a small amount of foreclosed homes they can't sell?
---------- If *******s could fly, then DC and wallstreet would be airports. "I'm sick of being sick about this ****" J0nx 2009-01-30 09:25:43
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Thetransporter Posts: 866 Incept: 2008-11-22
IL
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I'm a novice so go easy. But when I read the proposals put forth by you Gen I agree with them. My thought is this... doing those things won't stop the plunge, all they will do is lay the groundwork for the rebuild? I feel like our bed has been made we are lying in it, will we set the alarm (your proposals) to get up in the morning or not. The or not leads us to a huge reset of american society i think, more so than just a revamp of banking and investment.
---------- I guess the employees stuffing cash into their cars and management shredding all documents probably prompted the FDIC to get off their reluctant asses and do something today. --Scribe 2009-01-30 09:27:48
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Its worse than that Ruff. They created these synthetics off cash flows that are off OTHER synthetics that "mirror" actual assets. If you have a bond that pays 6% you can create a synthetic off that reference instrument that also pays 6%. Then you can roll those things up into a synthetic CDO or CMO or CLO that in fact has no real underlying value to it whatsoever. If the counterparty on that underlying synthetic can't pay the entire structure becomes worthless all at once. Thet - correct - it won't stop the plunge. But it will make it LESS BAD in that it will happen and be OVER. The longer we keep ****ing around the longer it goes on and the worse it is. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me Last modified:
2009-01-30 09:28:35 by genesis
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Thetransporter Posts: 866 Incept: 2008-11-22
IL
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Where can i find the video from last evening on the forum?
---------- I guess the employees stuffing cash into their cars and management shredding all documents probably prompted the FDIC to get off their reluctant asses and do something today. --Scribe 2009-01-30 09:35:45
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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You have to be a gold donor TheTransporter. See the FAQ. Gold donors have access to a number of forums and features that aren't visible to non-gold donors; one of them is a most-nights technical analysis video that I produce, typically 15-20 minutes in length. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2009-01-30 09:37:08
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Heffalump Posts: 91 Incept: 2008-04-05
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Gen - stock market moves are multiplicative, not additive. The calculation would be 800 / 1300 x 810, giving about 500 for SP target. (Not to deny that even this move would slam everybody speechless). ---------- "If rate I raise, burst, the frothy bubble will. If rates I lower, inflation will I get. Unclear, is the housing market." 2009-01-30 09:40:02
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Nope Heffa. These patterns have been quite reliable over time; the counterbalance to this particular pattern is that in every Bear market thus far - including The Depression - the money shot has been to GO LONG as these patterns have broke the wrong way. However - that doesn't mean this one will. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2009-01-30 09:41:27
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Heffalump Posts: 91 Incept: 2008-04-05
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I'm not arguing the pattern but its interpretation. We can safely forget the difference between adding and multiplying if the changes are small enough - it makes for simpler calculations. I see an analogy with your own example of exponential growth - 3% for 3 years is close enough to 9%, but follow that road a bit longer and the results are completely different. In this SP target calculation, I do not think that additive interpretation is correct. ---------- "If rate I raise, burst, the frothy bubble will. If rates I lower, inflation will I get. Unclear, is the housing market." 2009-01-30 09:49:19
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Thetransporter Posts: 866 Incept: 2008-11-22
IL
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I don't see a possibility of any sustained rally to take SP above 900 at all. What could take us there?
---------- I guess the employees stuffing cash into their cars and management shredding all documents probably prompted the FDIC to get off their reluctant asses and do something today. --Scribe 2009-01-30 10:06:03
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Mtgspy Posts: 5860 Incept: 2007-10-27
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TNX grinding up again, when is the cavalry showing up? They're not gonna let their hands forced this time?
---------- You kill them all! - Genesis 2009-01-30 10:06:16
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