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| User Info | Oh Dear: Housing Is Not Recovering? in forum [Ticker] | ||||
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Genesis Posts: 71426 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/1105-O....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-06-10 09:23:59
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Arcone Posts: 2094 Incept: 2008-02-09 
NYCville
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"Commodities have skyrocketed" Really this can't be ignored. Thanks!
2009-06-10 09:28:01
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Moniteyes Posts: 2400 Incept: 2008-11-28 ny
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Housing bubble was contrived after we gave up all our manufacturing - it was the only major industry that the Chinese could not compete.
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2009-06-10 09:29:59
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Jusa****ryboy Posts: 107 Incept: 2009-06-05 Athens,AL
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Heard Cramer last night say that interest rates are rising,wait for it,.....because more people were buying homes.lol!
2009-06-10 09:35:06
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Genesis Posts: 71426 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Cramer is going to lead his lemmings off the cliff with his "biggest bull market in history" call. Again. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-06-10 09:36:36
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Mo Posts: 5501 Incept: 2007-06-26 
Florida
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Cramer actually said a couple truthful things right before he was taken to the woodshed by Jon Stewart. Now it's all propaganda, all the time. Enjoy. ---------- "The World has been cancelled. It doesn't even look like the world. There is one island that is maintained and is said to be owned by the Sheikh and the rest looks like a pile of muck."
2009-06-10 09:37:25
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Arcone Posts: 2094 Incept: 2008-02-09
NYCville
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"taken to the woodshed by Jon Stewart." That did, however, mark a nice bottom didn't it?
2009-06-10 09:38:07
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Guyfawkes Posts: 352 Incept: 2008-09-19 Texas
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Heard Cramer say on Monday's show that this is a new Bull market.....might have called it a 'Super Bull' but can't quite remember. BOO-YA baby. [/sarcasm]
---------- It's still "We, the People".....right?
2009-06-10 09:43:31
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Sribb Posts: 938 Incept: 2009-06-10
Tampa, FL
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I can't believe that idiot Cramer is still on the air....oh wait. Yes I can.
---------- "We don't make market predictions. We just ride the bucking bronco" BILL DUNN-Dunn Capital Mgmt "I don't trade for excitement. I trade to win" Larry Hite
2009-06-10 09:44:30
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Phirang Posts: 8824 Incept: 2008-10-25
bar khoba's revenge
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Columbia B school hosted an evening with some economists and some sell-side CIO. The academic from CU was completely irrelevant, as he knew nothing about trading in the real world. Next! The former Fed economist/sell-side lead economist was saying that housing was going to bottom, since "household formation" was monotonically increasing as the population increased and inventory/starts dropped. When I asked about higher funding rates and low/no wages, I got blank stares. The CIO from the sell-side was convinced that we could continue to export manufacturing, engineering, and other jobs and yet magically, the "service" industry would revive and solve our problems. He insisted inflation was a non-issue so long as we imported crap from abroad. When I suggested that depressing wages by importing tradeable goods from abroad was killing our economy, I got incredulous looks from people who've never been poor and obviously never dealt with the real world. The scary thing is, even the ****** academic from columbia believed in this drivel, although he though housing had further to go... not that his opinion meant ****, as he of course was a giant pussy and has no skin in the game. The economist said that, "stimulus doesn't matter HOW it's spent: the money just needs to be injected into the economy, and that's all! How it's spent is irrelevant!" ---------- The Treasury can issue debt on your behalf because the State can and will stomp the wealth out of you and your family. Last modified:
2009-06-10 09:46:23 by phirang
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Psgirl Posts: 3669 Incept: 2009-02-18
Online
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Heard someone on CNBC say that this is a sign that the higher interest rates are a sign that the economy is recovering. Whatev. Last modified:
2009-06-10 09:52:26 by psgirl
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Dji Posts: 720 Incept: 2009-04-21
Fleming Island Online
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now it is called re-flation CNBS sounds like pumping up the bubble 
---------- What goes up Must come Down- Alan Parsons Project THE TRUTH HURTS! -Dji
2009-06-10 09:52:22
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Kwl88 Posts: 304 Incept: 2009-04-16 KC, MO
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Phirang, You know what they say about academics,"Those who CAN'T DO - Teach!" This old saying just gets to be MORE TRUE each and every year!
2009-06-10 09:53:53
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Kuhio Posts: 206 Incept: 2008-12-31
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In case anyone is interested (in terms of bolstering one's debating strengths), there are two differing perspectives on rising interest rates and commodity prices: supply & demand. That's right, good 'old Econ 101. Bears, such as ourselves, view oversupply of debt (Treasuries, agencies, etc) as the reason for falling bond prices, hence rising interest rates. The increase in commodities is linked to the $USD devaluation that is resulting from Ben monetizing the debt (QE), which is manifesting itself as increased demand in non-fiat hard assets (gold, oil, etc.) The flip side of this argument is demand. The state run media complex, including CNBC, have been given their marching orders to cast their arguments from this perspective. If demand for housing and other debt leverage assets **was** truly rising, then yes, we would see increasing interest rates. Likewise oil; if industrial production **was** really increasing, then yes, increased demand would translate into higher prices. The way to defeat their argument is really quite trivial. Since it's nothing more than a supply v demand issue, simply ask what is driving the demand side for higher prices (ie interest, oil, etc)? Nothing. Well then present your side: the USGov is flooding the market with debt, creating an oversupply, with the Fed debasing the value of the $USD. Easy, huh?
2009-06-10 10:14:54
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Sondog Posts: 58 Incept: 2009-05-18
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Can someone tell me why anyone even cares about transaction numbers? If a chunk of the transactions are foreclosure sales, all that means is that there will be even more realized losses for the banks, no? Even banks have to recognize a loss once they've sold the thing in foreclosure? I'm up in Canada. I know of lots of people going down and buying a place in the US as an investment now (I think it's still too early). So that makes for some transactions but so what? Until the number of transactions exceeds supply enough to raise prices, money will continue to be lost to banks and people will continue to be under water. This gets into so much TA with no correlation to the real world. You could get shot and after a while you might stop bleeding as much. If it's because you are out of blood that's quite a different story than if it's because a doctor patched you up. The 'doctors' think they have patched the patient up. I think the patient died on the operating table.
2009-06-10 10:42:13
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Tm22721 Posts: 516 Incept: 2008-01-09
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Wages fall victim to globaloney. We substitute debt. We fail. ---------- Joe Terranova: "I'm long Amazon...once it goes above 90 it gets to 100...it's that old 9-10 thing. Once you get above the 9 it always goes to 10." Tim Seymour: "Once it gets to the 8 it goes to the 7 and then the 6..."
2009-06-10 11:06:19
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Themortgagedude Posts: 3930 Incept: 2007-12-17
saint louis
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K winter baby. Be prepared.
---------- "These are interesting times. We don't trust the government, we don't trust the legal system, we don't trust the media, and we don't trust each other! We've undermined all authority, and with it, the basis for replacing it! It's like a six-year-old's dream come true!"
2009-06-10 11:55:16
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East2west Posts: 220 Incept: 2009-03-03
California
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One key line from the link in Karl's article: The vast majority of mortgage activity this year has been from homeowners cutting costs with new loans at rock-bottom rates. Housing prices and foreclosures don't stabilize on refinancing. Of course, the fact that homeowners are cutting their costs *could* eventually help the economy....that is, if they're spending that money instead of banking it away out of fear that things will get worse.
2009-06-10 11:55:23
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2banana Posts: 168 Incept: 2008-02-25
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Quote:
You forgot "Humbug"
2009-06-10 11:59:33
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Jpg Posts: 41 Incept: 2009-03-23 MI
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Quote:Remember Cramer said: Housing will turn in June of this year. Didn't Cramer also say "Bear-Stearns is a fine company; no need to sell"?
2009-06-10 12:08:53
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Markytom Posts: 217 Incept: 2009-02-19
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I tire of the pundits who keep claiming that a reduction of second derivatives shows "improvement." It can be a very false assumption. Just because something is getting bad slower does not mean the damage being done is decreasing, it could very well be increasing. Look at an anorexic 100 pound girl. Losing the first 20 pounds is bad, but she can still recover okay. Losing another 10 pounds in the same amount of time could be causing seriously more damage to her body even though she is losing weight more slowly. And she may never recover fully. A company laying people off - the first 10% will be deadwood. The next 5%, even though it is less, will be more productive and better workers. Getting worse more slowly does NOT equate to getting better. People tend to think linearly when most systems are not linear at all. Last modified:
2009-06-10 12:38:38 by markytom
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Blackswan Posts: 3601 Incept: 2007-11-06
Ponzi Roller Coaster
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Phirang - It is amazing that economists from supposedly the best and the brightest have no clue. I mean their are so many data points you have to ignore and so many fundamental concepts and math that has to be gamed to even believe the happy horse **** these academics come up with. What is his name? I am all for calling out these assclowns. ----------
2009-06-10 12:20:19
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Truongky Posts: 18 Incept: 2009-03-29 92683
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The 10-year auction found buyers, but yield shot up to 3.99 Tomorrow is even more exciting: 30-year auction, retail sale, Fed Beige Book, and the Ken Lewis dog & pony show.
2009-06-10 13:17:32
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Fortune Posts: 1455 Incept: 2008-04-21 A deep dark place...scary
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The inability of those green shoot blathering fools to extrapolate the implications of what these higher rates are going to do to residential and commercial real estate markets is beyond understanding. They have to be outright liars, all of them. I realize this is a leap but surely, nobody is that stupid to not see where this is heading, irrespective of their public remarks.
---------- It's a toss up. It is the Rule of Law that transforms assets into money: Martin Armstrong Math IS: Karl Denninger
2009-06-10 13:38:53
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Fugitivekind Posts: 613 Incept: 2007-08-20
Boston Online
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I have to wonder if Cramer is that stupid and believes his own drivel. Now CNBS is saying that higher interest rates may stall this recovery. Recovery-They have got to be kidding. Rates are even higher than 5.5 now.
---------- "I refuse to leave our children with a debt they cannot repay, and that means taking responsibility right now, in this administration, for getting our spending under control." Barack Obama, Feb. 29, 2009
2009-06-10 14:09:28
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