Obama's Prescription: FAIL [Ticker]

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Obama's Prescription: FAIL in forum [Ticker]

Genesis
Posts: 66462
Incept: 2007-06-26

Royal Flush!

http://market-ticker.org/archives/717-Ob....

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I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife?
I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects
Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me

2009-01-08 11:55:49

Sandor
Posts: 902
Incept: 2007-08-08

Deltaville,Virginia

Offered my girlfriends 17 y/o daughter $50 to watch Dr. Bartlett's video on the exponential function.

She said "is that math?"

I said, "well, uh, kinda"

She said "no thanks"

2009-01-08 12:05:18

Mtgspy
Posts: 5860
Incept: 2007-10-27

Offer her something else she might just do it LOL

for free

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You kill them all! - Genesis

Last modified: 2009-01-08 12:08:22 by mtgspy

2009-01-08 12:07:54

Timbo
Posts: 961
Incept: 2008-10-10

Obama wrote..

Politicians spent taxpayer money without wisdom or discipline, and too often focused on scoring political points instead of the problems they were sent here to solve.

HEAD ON
APPLY DIRECTLY TO THE FOREHEAD

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http://mises.org/story/770
http://www.theplacewithnoname.com/blogs/klessons/index.html
If you don't fly the plane and find a place to land, then God will find a place to park you.

Last modified: 2009-01-08 12:08:37 by timbo

2009-01-08 12:08:24

Goldbrick
Posts: 1500
Incept: 2008-01-23

Indiana

http://www.moneyinstructor.com/art/compo....

For those who need it: a short primer on how to compute compound interest.

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"The higher I go, the crookeder it gets."
--Michael Corleone

2009-01-08 12:20:16

Gmak
Posts: 10176
Incept: 2007-07-27

Re-inventing the future at the speed of time.

I'm not sure that it's the exponential function that has everyone flumoxed on the possiblities for the economy. I believe that people just don't have the connection between it and how compounding works.

I would suggest that most people on this forum didn't either, until it was lucidly explained in a Ticker within the last week. I've seen lots about exponential functions on this forum in the last week, but nothing in the prior year and a half.

You can have all the tools, but sometimes a blind spot will still exist. It doesn't mean the person is stupid, just that they don't have the experience /education in a particular area that would enable them to make the connection.

for example Everyone here probably understands basic geometry, yet few would think that it was essential to navigation and forms an intricate part of GPSystems, right?

Rather than using the obtuse reference of "exponential" use the approach of the magic of compounding money.

Most kids hate math because no one teaches them the reference to real life. My favorite approach is just to show the difference over 5 years of simple interest versus compound interest on a series (monthly) of cash inflows (savings).

Cheers.

2009-01-08 12:43:26

Passchendaele
Posts: 160
Incept: 2008-12-17

Pacific Northwest

Abe Lincoln came to mind as I read the ticker:

"If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of free men, we must live through all time, or die by suicide."

2009-01-08 12:45:00

Tesla
Posts: 7276
Incept: 2008-04-03

Delaware

Quote:

"To give our children the chance to live out their dreams in a world that's never been more competitive, we will equip tens of thousands of schools, community colleges, and public universities with 21st century classrooms, labs, and libraries. We'll provide new computers, new technology, and new training for teachers so that students in Chicago and Boston can compete with kids in Beijing for the high-tech, high-wage jobs of the future. "

If you'd simply demand that every kid learn the exponential function and be able to discount a note and compute the financial impact of debt, you'd have solved 90% of this. Computers don't do a damn thing; 8th graders had to demonstrate this ability with a piece of paper and pencil 100 years ago, and they didn't have computers. 21st Century? That's backwards - I want 19th Century classrooms and standards.

Spot on. I'm so sick of the "throw money at schools" crap. We used to teach 97% of kids to read by the middle of 1st grade, as late as the 1930s. Today, in most states, 41% of the population is functionally illiterate.

Don't just look at math - if you can't read, you can't think clearly either, and you are then dependent on the TV for all your info.

Put kids in a one room schoolhouse with a competent teacher, and don't let the kids leave 3rd grade until they are literate at grade level (per a 1850 standard) in reading, writing and math. You don't want shiny computers or even calculators for that. Give the kids each a copy of McGuffy's Readers at about $8 per kid, a few pencils and some paper, with a knowledgeable teacher, and you'll give those kids a better education than every single school in existence in this country today spending millions of dollars on fluff.

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"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." Samuel Adams

I'd rather die on my feet than live on my knees. - Emiliano Zapata

Last modified: 2009-01-08 12:48:20 by tesla

2009-01-08 12:46:45

Gs_hedge
Posts: 574
Incept: 2008-02-09

"American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan" - Bad choice of words.

In general it is not a good sign when you go from 'Search and Rescue' to 'Search and Recovery'. There is nobody to be rescued, only mortal remains that need to be recovered.

2009-01-08 12:53:35

Robertmc
Posts: 33
Incept: 2008-09-24
Tallahassee, FL

re: I believe that people just don't have the connection between it and how compounding works.

That's why Dr. Bartlett's video works so well. They don't have to do the math (he does it for you) but more importantly he explains the consequences as it applies to anything with a steady growth rate in a finite world whether it be oil, ski lift tickets, population growth, the economy or natural resources. There's a reason why it is called "the most important video you'll ever see".

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Most Important Video Ever
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpB....

Last modified: 2009-01-08 13:00:36 by robertmc

2009-01-08 12:58:21

Timbo
Posts: 961
Incept: 2008-10-10

Obama wrote..

That's why the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan won't just throw money at our problems - we'll invest in what works.

Phew. Here I was thinking we've never get from "War Is Peace" to "Slavery Is Freedom."

Glad to know we're still committed to the program.

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http://mises.org/story/770
http://www.theplacewithnoname.com/blogs/klessons/index.html
If you don't fly the plane and find a place to land, then God will find a place to park you.

2009-01-08 13:02:10

Passchendaele
Posts: 160
Incept: 2008-12-17

Pacific Northwest

Is this the kind of spending Obama has in mind?

'Chicago public school bureaucrats skirted competitive bidding rules to buy 30 cappuccino/espresso machines for $67,000, with most of the machines going unused because the schools they were ordered for had not asked for them, according to a report by the CPS Office of Inspector General.'

http://www.suntimes.com/news/education/1....

2009-01-08 13:03:30

Ksfq
Posts: 1007
Incept: 2007-07-11

California

Quote:

I'm so sick of the "throw money at schools" crap.

I don't know if we are really throwing money at schools. I live in San Francisco and schools are absolutely horrendous. Run down, water is leaking in toilets, etc. And San Francisco is very very rich place. Not sure where all this money goes...

2009-01-08 13:05:44

Timbo
Posts: 961
Incept: 2008-10-10

Quote:

As a result CPS paid about $12,000 too much, according to Inspector General James Sullivan. "We were able to find the same machines cheaper online," he said.

"We also look at it as a waste of money because the schools didn't even know they were getting the equipment, schools didn't know how to use the machines and weren't prepared to implement them into the curriculum," Sullivan said.

Anybody know a publicly traded rope manufacturer?

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http://mises.org/story/770
http://www.theplacewithnoname.com/blogs/klessons/index.html
If you don't fly the plane and find a place to land, then God will find a place to park you.

2009-01-08 13:08:33

Widgeon
Posts: 5671
Incept: 2007-08-30

Here's another Factor ...

Back "in the day" - gov't spending was relatively much more effective at goosing a slowing economy because when gov't spends it is usually buying manufactured items. Now, we have a "service" economy (LOL/Puke). So, when gov't spends the direct benefit of that spending is going to a very small number of manufacturing/consultant vendors compared to the economy as a whole. Exactly how much is gov't going to spend in such a way that will mimic "the consumer?" Darn Little.

2009-01-08 13:13:11

Micronin127
Posts: 493
Incept: 2008-01-21

Swampscott, MA

SP500 at or below 300 within 18-24 months? WOW!

I have a target of 500 based on SP500 earnings declining below $40 and the P/E multiple compression from 19 (current) to 12.5 (guesstimate).

40 * 12.5 = 500

At or below 300... I guess the P/E could slip below 10 in the next leg down, but do you really think the earnings for the SP500 will slip below $30?

2009-01-08 13:15:51

Widgeon
Posts: 5671
Incept: 2007-08-30

Also, He's really doing a lot of damage with all this talk (IMHO). He'd have been much better served to just keep completely silent until the inauguration.

2009-01-08 13:17:22

Genesis
Posts: 66462
Incept: 2007-06-26

Royal Flush!

Bond market dislocation = instant inability for corporations to roll short debt = a gigantic deflationary KABOOM.

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I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife?
I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects
Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me

2009-01-08 13:17:44

Asimov
Posts: 21223
Incept: 2007-08-26

east tennessee
Online

Somebody please explain to me how you implement cappuccino machines into a school curriculum?

My stepson is on a good bit of medication which makes him sleepy in the mornings and his doctor perscribed coffee. The school hassles us almost every time we have a meeting for ANOTHER perscription because it violates their "dietary guidelines." (They almost never let him have it anyway.)

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It's justifiably immoral to try to deal in a moral fashion with an immoral entity.

If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.

2009-01-08 13:20:06

Widgeon
Posts: 5671
Incept: 2007-08-30

Give him a thermos.

2009-01-08 13:21:16

Infidel
Posts: 2598
Incept: 2007-08-27

orlando, fl

Obama is trying to sell this, look how responsible we are going to be with money going forward, to the Chinese not to the Americans. I know congress and lobbyist cannot be to happy with the fact that we all of a sudden found jebus, (no earmarks)

Americans are licking their chops at the thought of "free money"

We shall see who wins this tug a war, an entrenched enemy in congress or Obama on his valiant steed Skittle****ter.

Last modified: 2009-01-08 14:05:55 by infidel

2009-01-08 13:21:38

Maddymax
Posts: 1328
Incept: 2008-02-26

not sure anymore

great ticker. I was a gwb supporter, but was let down more than I could imagine. Now we have a guy with empty promises who is considered a rock star. The market is starting to look at him as a hollow man which could get scary. No more bs speeches with no details in 2 weeks it is for real. Scarey

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10 year at 1.5
S and P 515

2009-01-08 13:21:43

Buck350
Posts: 560
Incept: 2008-10-22

Good tick, Gen, but personally I'm not surprised that Obama hasn't said much about punishing the bad guys at this point. The crooks are largely still at the controls of the whole machine, and I suspect that putting them on the defensive now might only fuel the crisis of confidence that everyone is feeling. Any comments about who he thinks are crooks just open him up to libel suits. (Remember- he's not POTUS yet, so he can't order any investigations now anyway.) A wrong move might even have an impact on future criminal prosecutions.

The **** is halfway into the fan. MAybe he has concluded that the immediate challenges are response and recovery, and punishing the **** pitchers can wait until after he makes them help clean it up.

I do think he will take action as part of a future re-regulation effort. He's smart enough to know that doing the right thing at the wrong time is one of the easiest ways to fail.

just my .02

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I think Paulson and Bernanke knew early on that Wile E. Coyote had already run straight off the cliff, so they chose to focus on frantic efforts to slow his descent before J6P notices the "gravity" of what has happened, hoping that the proles won't panic telegenically on the way down.

2009-01-08 13:24:38

Genesis
Posts: 66462
Incept: 2007-06-26

Royal Flush!

Quote:

I do think he will take action as part of a future re-regulation effort. He's smart enough to know that doing the right thing at the wrong time is one of the easiest ways to fail.

I don't think he's going to do DICK about the bad actors.

We will see.

There is no harm in saying "those who did wrong, you're on notice - you're going to jail." He doesn't have to name 'em.

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I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife?
I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects
Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me

2009-01-08 13:27:45

Tdray
Posts: 93
Incept: 2008-12-11

<quote>Somebody please explain to me how you implement cappuccino machines into a school curriculum?</quote>

Job training my friend, job training. A real shop class would be too dangerous.

Last modified: 2009-01-08 13:33:48 by tdray

2009-01-08 13:28:15

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