No, This Is Not A New Bull Market [Ticker]

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No, This Is Not A New Bull Market in forum [Ticker]

Genesis
Posts: 71432
Incept: 2007-06-26

KD^2

http://market-ticker.org/archives/1001-N....

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"The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me

2009-04-30 09:29:25
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Snowman
Posts: 1040
Incept: 2009-03-09

avoiding yellow snow

bottlewasher, I think the correct term is not "No, this is not a new bull market", but "Yes, This is a new Bull**** Market".

2009-04-30 09:32:45
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Cabbage_the_cat
Posts: 51
Incept: 2009-03-28

Atlanta, GA
Online

Thanks KD!!!

I feel less crazy after reading that.

2009-04-30 09:37:39
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Gmak
Posts: 10176
Incept: 2007-07-27

Re-inventing the future at the speed of time.

Agreed. But we said the same thing in 1999 and in 2006 - 2008, and I am having flashbacks even as I type.

The point is: do you want to be right or be successful (make money). Right now, the trend is clearly on the side of the angels and flying higher. If the MSM is going to pump this, you know that retail may just jump in. Ride the current with stops above break even, no?

Look how SPX just jumped over the resistance at 883 /884. The collective market is gunning for 900 and may just make it. Why not try the long with a stop just below SPX = 883?

2009-04-30 09:45:43
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Jinxx0r
Posts: 2064
Incept: 2007-08-10

Quote:

An oil prospector, moving on to his heavenly reward, was met by St.Peter with some bad news. "You're qualified for residence, " St. Peter said, "but as you can see, the compound for oil men is
packed. There's no way to squeeze you in."

After thinking for a moment, the prospector asked if he might say just four words to the present occupants. That seemed harmless to St. Peter, so the prospector cupped his hands and yelled, "Oil discovered in Hell."

Immediately the gate to the compound opened and all the oil men marched out to head for the nether regions. Impressed, St. Peter invited the prospector to move in and make himself comfortable. But
the prospector paused, then said:

"On second thought, I think I'll go along with the rest of the boys. There might be some truth to that rumor after all."

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"Americans grew tired of being thought of as dumb by the rest of the world, so in 2008, they went to the polls and removed all doubt" ~~ unknown

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2x2W12A8Qow
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pXfHLUlZf4

2009-04-30 09:53:27
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Gmak
Posts: 10176
Incept: 2007-07-27

Re-inventing the future at the speed of time.

Thanks Jinxx0r.

2009-04-30 09:55:47
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Wisc-xc
Posts: 4828
Incept: 2007-07-14

outside chicago

If enough of the bad debt can get sequestered in a quasi govt holding acct vis a vis PPiP, etc, and the cost of govt borrowing stays range bound--manageable--then, ****, maybe this baby can mimmick the APPEARANCE of one last bullishesk gasp of life.

It also doesn't hurt that global debt merchants--eg, central bankers--are more about greed than nationalistic allegiances: think cooperation among thieves.

Of course the above does little to change the balance sheets of over extended consumers, which then brings us to the proverbial pushing on a string.

The big picture is not about bullish anything from here on out, but rather a transfer of ultimate bagholder to the taxpayer in a systematic ultimate financial meltdown, which has yet to fully play itself out. In short there can be no new bull market without j6p going along for the ride, and as I see it there's little chance of that happening for a long long time.

2009-04-30 10:04:55
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Wisc-xc
Posts: 4828
Incept: 2007-07-14

outside chicago

One more thing. IMHO this latest monster rally is primarily a function of the PPIP. If somehow that program fails we'll be at 500 SP points in a heartbeat.

2009-04-30 10:10:42
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Phirang
Posts: 8824
Incept: 2008-10-25

bar khoba's revenge

This whole thing is PPIP: it's why CMBX AAA rallied so hard.

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The Treasury can issue debt on your behalf because the State can and will stomp the wealth out of you and your family.

2009-04-30 10:11:23
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Mo
Posts: 5502
Incept: 2007-06-26

Florida

Quote:

The big picture is not about bullish anything from here on out, but rather a transfer of ultimate bagholder to the taxpayer in a systematic ultimate financial meltdown, which has yet to fully play itself out.

American taxpayers will NEVER pay this bill. It just won't happen. There would be a revolution if they raised taxes to the onerous levels required to pay it.

This is about shifting the debt to the federal government and then defaulting.

Default would have severe implications if the government currently in power cared about retaining national sovreignty. But they don't. They'll just move onto a global currency and sacrifice our sovreignty. They've been doing that slowly for 20 years anyway.

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"The World has been cancelled. It doesn't even look like the world. There is one island that is maintained and is said to be owned by the Sheikh and the rest looks like a pile of muck."

2009-04-30 10:20:15
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Snowman
Posts: 1040
Incept: 2009-03-09

avoiding yellow snow

Durden has a real gem today, I liked it so much I read it over and over.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/

2009-04-30 10:22:46
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Snowman
Posts: 1040
Incept: 2009-03-09

avoiding yellow snow

sorry, more precise tag
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/co....

2009-04-30 10:24:32
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Jinxx0r
Posts: 2064
Incept: 2007-08-10

2009-04-30 10:24:53
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Lplate
Posts: 2099
Incept: 2008-08-06

Australia

thanks KD

2009-04-30 10:41:20
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Chassa
Posts: 896
Incept: 2008-01-09

Scotland

Gen - agree. Seems to me that the outlook for 'hard' (real) assets is unchanged.
Only the funny munny stuff going up.

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Congratulations [insert your country] Idol (and everyone who watches it), you succeeded in making everything suck.

(paraphrased) The Reformed Broker.

2009-04-30 11:02:55
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Irishsamurai
Posts: 130
Incept: 2008-11-03
Atlanta, GA

The amazing part with this continued rally is:

DOLLAR - UP
10Y - UP
EQUITIES - UP

The laws of gravity have been re-defined!

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"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter." - Winston Churchill

2009-04-30 11:04:22
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Reza30
Posts: 233
Incept: 2009-02-15

Investors (aka gamblers) are too high on Fed comments as usual--"they don't feel a thing" as illustrated.

KD, not even Chrysler bankruptcy seems to make a difference.
Folks, Chrysler is the third largest employer in the country. How do you think this will change the game?

The swine flu is also spreading like wild fire.

Last modified: 2009-04-30 11:12:32 by reza30

2009-04-30 11:11:40
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Randy123
Posts: 2006
Incept: 2008-09-24
New Jersey

Now trotting out dow 10k banners on CNBC. Boy there are going to be a lot of pretty unhappy people by the fall.

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Mliu is my hero. Captain melamine.

2009-04-30 11:19:17
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Themortgagedude
Posts: 3930
Incept: 2007-12-17

saint louis

So methinks its time to short the phonebook. I've said it before and prudently sat on the sidelines. Except for a small position in retirement account in SDS and TBT I have remained flat. This irrational exhuberance in the face of GDP numbers and Chrysler really is incredible. It just seems that this is not only shorts covering but also the sheep who finally pulled out deciding to get back in. And if this plays out as I believe we'll have that Chrysler Building stuck so far up J6P's ass that they will never come back to the market. I'm staying with my idea that this will mirror the GD1 market and its time to go look at the charts again. I just think that human nature hasn't changed much and we are doomed to repeat history.

If I'm wrong could someone send me some lube for that Chrysler Building cause I'm thinking of placing a sizable bet down.

May the force be with me.

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"These are interesting times. We don't trust the government, we don't trust the legal system, we don't trust the media, and we don't trust each other! We've undermined all authority, and with it, the basis for replacing it! It's like a six-year-old's dream come true!"

2009-04-30 11:22:26
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Wineaux
Posts: 131
Incept: 2009-03-23

pure Liquid pleasure

Reza30 - Your post made me have an eerie flashback to Feb 2000 when the Nasdaq was at 4600+. One last gigantic gasp and then

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What wine goes with unemployment?

Last modified: 2009-04-30 11:26:42 by wineaux

2009-04-30 11:23:06
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Etz3l
Posts: 9103
Incept: 2007-06-26

Online

This is the kind of stupidity that drives this market,

Quote:

Cummins Inc. posted a 96% plunge in first-quarter earnings on Thursday, slammed by a hefty restructuring charge relating to job cuts as well as the effects of the global recession on demand for the company's diesel engines.

But Wall Street had expected even steeper declines, which helped to push the stock up 3.3% to $34.60. The shares have gained 30% so far this year.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Cu....

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Treating the symptoms of financial corruption isn�t the same as removing the causes.

2009-04-30 11:27:53
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Asianbull
Posts: 2184
Incept: 2007-09-03

Except a slew of secondaries next week.

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The root cause of all the world's problems is inflation. The only sound money in the world is commodities.

2009-04-30 11:31:04
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Fyoupaulson
Posts: 19
Incept: 2008-12-30

Chicago, IL

I'm still trying to figure out why CMBS has rallied so much. SPG and VNO have been off the charts over the last month. Are that many people covering their shorts? Both of these companies are up to their eyeballs in debt and are total ****. SPG offering more equity just dilutes what little earnings they have more by paying out dividends. My June (VNO) & July (SPG) puts are worth nothing now.

;(

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An old Russian proverb, "Dwell on the past, and you will lose an eye. Ignore the past, and you will lose both of them."

2009-04-30 11:35:53
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Reza30
Posts: 233
Incept: 2009-02-15

This "human behavior" is very reminiscent of the wildebeest crossing the Mara river.

They hesitate at the water's edge, unsure of what to do. Then the first few jump in, and then more. Pretty soon the whole herd follows, believing that the deadly lions and crocodile don't even exist.

Then the first one gets caught; the rest panic, and many die in the ensuing stampede.

It is unbelievable how Wall Street consistently preys on the same victims over and over again who are supposed to be sophisticated humans: start trumpeting that there is a new bull market; make the first few jump into the market, and then steal their money one by one.

Last modified: 2009-04-30 11:38:19 by reza30

2009-04-30 11:36:43
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Themortgagedude
Posts: 3930
Incept: 2007-12-17

saint louis

Just did some quick calculations and in the GD the market traced back to 77% of its previous value. That would take us to 10,903 - I don't think we go that high but historically it says we can. That's a whole lot of Chrysler Building to take up the ass if you're short. I'm of the opinion that I'll short the phonebook at a higher level or try to jump in after it breaks.

There is just so much bad news out there I don't think you can call it investing to be long or short right now. Its just pure speculation until we see bare bank ****. Myself I think I'll sit this one out for a while longer. But its about time to get the rest of mrsmortgagedudes retirement accounts into cash.

2009-04-30 11:40:27
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