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| User Info | More Horses Long Gone, Door Now Being Bolted? in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 71426 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2008/....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me Last modified:
2008-04-24 11:24:01 by genesis
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Av8rphil Posts: 1817 Incept: 2007-06-26 
Platte City, MO
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Karl, Hope you are wrong and Ben can man up and do the right thing. Hate to think that I busted my butt for years and now my kids are going to get screwed. ---------- "Two things in life are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and i'm not sure about the universe" -Einstein
2008-04-24 11:21:05
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Mondocondo Posts: 3143 Incept: 2007-12-03
Miami
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KD, you have been pretty well spot on in your predictions, and you hit another bullseye regarding fraud in the mortgage origination arena. It's amazing how it's all been ignored, with the prevailing wisdom being that the Fed will fix everything and get us out of the mess with little pain.
2008-04-24 11:23:27
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Genesis Posts: 71426 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Ben won't because we, the people, won't tell him to. Its that simple. "We the people" think the solution to being drunk is more whiskey. Its coming folks. I have zero faith in the American People to do the right thing. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-04-24 11:30:32
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Asianbull Posts: 2184 Incept: 2007-09-03
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The financials are running. As long as this sector is healthy, the global economy will be fine.
---------- The root cause of all the world's problems is inflation. The only sound money in the world is commodities.
2008-04-24 11:30:39
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Genesis Posts: 71426 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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You're full of **** Asian. 100%, certifyably full of ****. Price action does not equate with "fine." Every single one of these tranches written in the last four years is subject to being put back for fraud. Every one of them. This is an absolutely slam-dunk win in court. It is an absolute legal certainty that upon a showing of fraud these deals will be unwound. IF even 10% of them are, every single investment bank is a zero, no matter what Bernanke does. If you underappreciate the risk here, you are going to get destroyed. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me Last modified:
2008-04-24 11:33:43 by genesis
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Asianbull Posts: 2184 Incept: 2007-09-03
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All these financial will run up, they will sell stock to address their "liabilities" and move forward.
---------- The root cause of all the world's problems is inflation. The only sound money in the world is commodities.
2008-04-24 11:35:36
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Genesis Posts: 71426 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Asian, you are 100% full of ****. The total volume of these fraudulent originations is in the TRILLIONS of dollars. Not billions, trillions. You're wrong because your math does not add up. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-04-24 11:36:40
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Asianbull Posts: 2184 Incept: 2007-09-03
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Their is still an asset to back up these loans.
---------- The root cause of all the world's problems is inflation. The only sound money in the world is commodities.
2008-04-24 11:38:45
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Cobra2411 Posts: 6153 Incept: 2007-06-26
Dark Side of the Moon
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Quote:Their is still an asset to back up these loans. Yes, but what is the gearing? With a 20% gearing on the underlying assets a 5% move down wipes you out... Is there still value to the asset? Yes, but it's game over when you're out of money... ---------- Suppose you were a criminal, and suppose you were a member of Congress; but I repeat myself...
2008-04-24 11:43:15
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Genesis Posts: 71426 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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With a 30% haircut against its claimed value. The total originated amount of these fraudulent loans is esimtated somewhere around $3 trillion. If the haircut is 30% (loss of home value) then there's $1 trillion of actual losses, which is vastly in excess of any ability to recapitalize ****. If Bernanke doesn't get this **** off The Fed's books right here and now the consequence will be a bond market dislocation and THAT will result in the inability to borrow at terms under 10% - for everyone. Every one of the IBs goes down under that scenario. All of them. You can trade price and momentum all you want but you're not talking about a trade - you're talking about an investment on the thesis that "they'll all be ok." You know absolutely nothing about the law Asian. Fraud voids ALL transactions. All. The thesis here was that the risk of these failures and losses could be shifted off onto investors and most of them would end up being eaten by those investors. This is an absolutely false belief and those who invest or trade on that belief are going to get destroyed. Go spend $100 asking a lawyer about fraud and what it means to a contract. If you are actually trading and not trolling - you've been flipflopping more often than Bill Clinton lately - you can afford the $100 to find out why you're totally full of **** in your beliefs. Good luck wiht your thesis Asian. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-04-24 11:44:11
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Tat668 Posts: 1700 Incept: 2007-09-09
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Asian You are reading too much publish data, I humbly suggest you take a bit of time to lift your head a bit higher and take a look at the real world. I believe that China is getting ready to avert a crash in her economy, and having direct link to a trade where coal, oil, and a few other items are concern I can see that would be a high possibility before the end of this year. Good luck in your long term holding in China and Japan. By the way I am planning to purchase real estate in China, after 2012, and settle there, but would not dare to get anywhere close to her market at this point. ---------- "Patience grasshoppers.... but your time to eat the bugs is coming......."- KD 9-1-2009 "This marks the beginning of the end."- Barack Obama 2-26-09
2008-04-24 11:56:21
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Genesis Posts: 71426 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Asianbull wrote..8) Brokers had an awful Q and their Q ends on Friday. This group is in a secular decline. While everyone is focused on their sub-prime assets, the rest of their loan book(leveraged loans, commercial real estate, etc) will come under scrutiny. Note you said SECULAR decline. Secular trends are multi-year deals. So either you were wrong then or you're wrong now. This **** is tiring and its marked your last couple of months here. If you make a SECULAR call and then change it, you need to RETRACT the former call, not just issue an opposite one. This is the worst sort of misleading horse**** because it leads to you being able to claim "I'm right" no matter what happens, and that's dishonest. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-04-24 11:58:45
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Asianbull Posts: 2184 Incept: 2007-09-03
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There are multiple parties to blame in the subprime mess. Wall Street has very powerful political connections. No way they pay anything beyond 10-15 billion.
---------- The root cause of all the world's problems is inflation. The only sound money in the world is commodities.
2008-04-24 11:59:58
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Genesis Posts: 71426 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Asian, do not ignore the previous comment. Stop the horse****. You made a SECULAR BEAR CALL on Investment banks. Not a TRADING CALL, a secular BEAR MARKET call. That's not a one or two week or one or two MONTH call. It is a MULTI YEAR call. This "Back and forth" is going to get featured in my Ticker - line by line - if you don't cut it out. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-04-24 12:06:48
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Barnaby33 Posts: 522 Incept: 2007-07-24 
San Diego
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Asianbull that theory may prevail, but it still means that current stock holders get destroyed. Dilution isn't good for current holders except that they might avoid losing everything. Gen's point about fraud is still valid, even if all of the IB's and more importantly the regulated banks aren't zero's. Depends on how much fraud is uncovered and how much of this is unwound. I remember the post from a year ago, it was the first time I posted on the blog, pre-forum. In one sense this is unwinding faster than I had thought, for example Bear imploding. On the other hand its happening more slowly. I would have thought a major investor, like Calpers, would have lawyered up at this point and found the fraud, forcing much bigger unwinds and more visible damage. If I had to guess I would say its because at this point the losses have almost all been book value write-downs. Actual losses have been fairly small. ---------- Short taglines rule!
2008-04-24 12:12:42
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Mango Posts: 240 Incept: 2008-02-08
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Great ticker as usual KD! My concerns as a short seller until January ’09 are: 1) The 3 bullet point media driven analysis (I'll give you 4 here LOL) that typifies this market and widespread acceptance thereof. 2) Stronger than expected Q1. Tax refund Q2 and Tax rebate Q3 which could get us through elections coupled with the all out political motivation and the markets perception of such to make sure we get there. 3) Pushing on the midterm highs now and trying to bust out of the weekly down channel which clearly tips the market momentum sideways to up for possibly many months to come. 4) More than 2 decades of fraud has numbed and dumbed everyone to it. Trend following is really all they're after. Wall Street's vested interest is for the long side.
2008-04-24 12:18:11
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Mtgspy Posts: 6121 Incept: 2007-10-27
Online
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http://mtgspy.blogspot.com/2008/04/more-.... More than u need to know about "investment" bank. ---------- It sounds antiquated, merchantilistic - until you figured out that I was hoarding for war.
2008-04-24 12:37:57
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Downrange Posts: 4672 Incept: 2007-09-26
... best clear on out the back
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Great ticker! Fed is fighting a delaying action. As, I believe Nothing has pointed out, and I think Asian is alluding to, the tranches out there don't necessarily have to go to zero. There will be some value in the various vehicles that were spun out of the RE bubble. The near impossibility lies in separating it out. The HOPE is what keeps the thing going, even though we know the eventual pain's going to be intense, and meanwhile they are trading on a mirage. The Fed has given an oxygen bottle to a man trapped underwater. How long will it last? Can they run this through the elections? I'm doubtful, but I've been nothing but EARLY thus far, to my great detriment. As long as a reckoning can be put off, they think they can hold off what's coming. The thing they cannot control is what's going on globally with food and energy - and this is not JUST a commodity speculation bubble - there is real fire at the base of those smoke pillars. Globally, we are peaking in terms of available resources to fuel growth at the same time that acceleration of that growth is still occurring. I think we will only see the truly devastating effects of the past quarter or two around the end of summer, possibly later. And it's not going to get any better, it's going to get much, much worse. Now, the entire case the pundits are making for "recovery" is that "things are going to be much better after the second quarter." BULL****!! Things will just be getting wound up! Gen, you are absolutely correct that no one will stand up and do anything about the fraud. People are SCARED to death, and out of the hundreds of people I've talked with about this, clearly 99 per cent just want to see it "fixed." They do not want to THINK about what has really caused it, including the very model of their growth-forever, suburban-heaven, lifestyles. They would gladly sign away every right they had to keep the illusions they cherish. This is going to be a painful unwind, the HARD way! I see absolutely nothing to stop it. Best we can do is try to position ourselves as well as possible to survive and leave our kids a fighting chance. When the dust finally settles, something else will rise up. Let's hope it's something better. History has shown it's usually not, though. ---------- "Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works" John Mills
2008-04-24 12:43:13
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Marginnayan Posts: 10460 Incept: 2007-06-27
Dallas Forth Worth Metro, Texas
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Genesis wrote..This "Back and forth" is going to get featured in my Ticker - line by line - if you don't cut it out. AsianBull is mix and matching secular market calls with short term market calls and doing flip flops. Did he not say FRE/FnM were short to zero ? He never mentioned whether or when he cover those. AsianBull is losing credibility on Ticker forum. ---------- "The whole purpose of this ****ing US Fed is to make Banksters richer and Midle Class Americans poorer with each passing day. No More. Abolish the US Fed right here, right now. - Me Last modified:
2008-04-24 13:15:29 by marginnayan
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Leraconteur Posts: 7189 Incept: 2007-12-03
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Tat668 wrote..I believe that China is getting ready to avert a crash in her economy, and having direct link to a trade where coal, oil, and a few other items are concern I can see that would be a high possibility before the end of this year. Could you clarify? Are you seeing indicators in a trade you are making/managing involving coal, oil and other items wrt China, or you see TA in coal, oil and other items and believe that China is going to hit the wall?
2008-04-24 13:53:50
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Aerobus2008 Posts: 74 Incept: 2008-01-21
LA, Ca
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"AsianBull is losing credibility on Ticker forum" He'll make a fine Wall Street analyst though... ---------- "The Americans will always do the right thing, after they've exhausted all the alternatives." Winston Churchill
2008-04-24 15:37:58
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Genesis Posts: 71426 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Well **** I can make both side calls and then claim I'm right all the time too. Its not honest, but I can do it. Heh, I didn't think we'd get this today. I'm quite impressed with the bulls to be honest. Will be covered in depth tonight...... one way or another. The capitulation is exactly what the market needs to go completely to **** though. Keep that in mind..... ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-04-24 15:44:18
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Stormrunner Posts: 118 Incept: 2008-01-29 OC CA Online
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You’re insistence on transparency is honorable but naïve, if you wish people to act you need to inform them as to what they’re up against. http://www.dunwalke.com If you read this (the entire document that is linked not the short sample below, It's about an hour of reading but worth it) and are aware of anything that would discredit the observations of this individual with an obviously inside high level perspective of the situation as it is. I would look forward to your rebuttal of her writing especially in light of the recent unfolding circumstances she had defined so many years previous to where we are now Catherine Austin Fitts A successful venture capitalist like John Birkelund would tell you that a great brand can make or break a company and its stock market value. The supremacy of the central banking-warfare investment model that has ruled our planet for the last 500 years depends on being able to combine the high margin profits of organized crime with the low cost of capital and liquidity that comes with governmental authority and popular faith in the rule of law. Our economy depends on insiders having their cake and eating it too and subsidizing a free lunch by stealing from someone else. This works well when the general population shares in some of the subsidy, grows complacent and does not see the “real deal” on how the system works. However, liquidity and governmental authority will erode if the general population becomes aware of how things really work. As this happens, they begin to understand the power of innovative technology and re-engineering of government resources to create greater abundance both for themselves and other people. As this happens, they lose faith in the myth that the current system is fundamentally legitimate. This jeopardizes the financial markets that depend on fraudulent collateral and practices to continue to work. It also jeopardizes the wealth and power of the people who are winning with financial fraud. In short, transparency blows the game and cannot be allowed. No expense will be spared to insure that the insiders — at the expense of the outsiders — control financial data. As Nicholas Negroponte, founding Chairman of the MIT Media Lab, once said, “In a digital age, data about money is worth more than money.” As a consequence, extraordinary attention and sums of money are invested in affirming the myth and appearance of legitimacy. This includes creating popular explanations of why the rich and powerful are lawful and ethical and the venal poor, hostile foreigners, crafty mobsters and incompetent and irresponsible middle class bureaucrats are to blame for the success of narcotics trafficking, financial fraud and other forms of organized crime. If the normal successful retail industry — for example, women’s clothing or cars — has an advertising and marketing budget of — let’s just pick a number of say 10% of revenues —then what do we think that an estimated $500 billion–$1 trillion of annual U.S. money laundering flows will spend to protect its market franchise? Working with our number of 10%, how do we think $50-100 billion would be spent to protect the brand — particularly when governmental budgets can be used to fund the effort? As a result, extraordinary amounts of money and time are spent destroying the credibility of those who illuminate what is really going on. All of this despite the obviousness of the economic reality that those whose wealth is growing the most must have an economic relationship to the business generating the most profit. Or, as in the words of John Gotti, Jr., in response to allegations that the Gotti crime family was dealing drugs, “Who can compete with the government?” Only when you understand the value of the brand can you understand the extraordinary investment and criminal methods used to stop and suppress our software product Community Wizard and try to frame The Hamilton Securities Group and myself.
2008-04-24 16:24:00
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Genesis Posts: 71426 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Well the video will be up as soon as its done processing and loading. Softee goes in the ****ter, so does the stock, so do the futures. **** the pump monkeys. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-04-24 16:59:08
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