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| User Info | Mathematically Impossible Monday in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2008/....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-05-19 13:35:19
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Mvo Posts: 493 Incept: 2007-06-27 
NYC
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Karl, when you said: "Speaking of intentional fraud you do know that they have changed how P/Es are calculated, yes, so as to show a lower number than is actual. How? They removed interest expense." ... did you refer to CNBS?
2008-05-19 13:49:29
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Etz3l Posts: 9103 Incept: 2007-06-26 
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Been busy today?  http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/vie.... ---------- Treating the symptoms of financial corruption isn’t the same as removing the causes.
2008-05-19 13:54:18
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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How the devil did I get listed over there? I'll take it, of course
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-05-19 13:56:36
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Akula Posts: 1809 Incept: 2007-10-01
Moscow
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Quote:
1.4 quadrillion USD in losses? Damn and I thought I was bearish. I am not surpised that this figure was given out by a Louisiana Senator with a name like Landrieu. You can't get more backwoods bayou coonazz **** than someone named Landrieu in that part of the country. There are some smart people in Louisiana but there are an awful lot of dumb****s and they are usually found inside the government. Louisiana is famous for their incompetent and corrupt government officials so this letter is not really a shock just a confirmation of what everybody has always known. I guess I will have to go with "All of the above" in this situation. 1.4 quadrillion! LMAO! Last modified:
2008-05-19 14:10:12 by akula
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Sondergaard Posts: 512 Incept: 2007-07-13
Big Trees
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Genesis wrote.....they have changed how P/Es are calculatedInfuriating -- but who are "they"? Are companies suddenly playing even looser with GAAP, or have GAAP changed, or is there some third-party source of P/E valuations that has done this on its own initiative? How can **** smell so much better when it's called something else? ---------- And it won't make one bit of difference if I answer right or wrong; when you're rich, they think you really know. --Fiddler on the Roof Last modified:
2008-05-19 14:22:06 by sondergaard
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Bozonian Posts: 14033 Incept: 2007-09-01
PFT - Pure F'n Tin
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Oh come on. Maybe she's British or something. Isn't their trillion, our quadrillion? Or maybe quadrillion is the new trillion.
---------- I'm so depressed about outsourcing I called the suicide hotline and got a call center in Pakistan. They got all excited and asked me if I could drive a truck. Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice.
2008-05-19 14:20:32
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Sonder, this was an "official" change many years ago on the P/E. You can't look at historical P/Es from before about 1980 and compare against today as a consequence. THis is the problem with all these "the market is cheap" calls - they are intentionally overstating earnings by not subtracting out a major expense! ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-05-19 14:22:25
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Aztrader Posts: 4959 Incept: 2007-09-10 Scottsdale, AZ
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Let's see, they change the calculations on PE ratio's, they manipulate the inflation numbers, unemployment numbers, foreclosures, home starts, permits, etc, etc and here we are back to 13,000 on the Dow. What else can they manufacture to keep the pump going?
2008-05-19 14:29:33
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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They run into a bit of a problem when they get to the cash flow.
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-05-19 14:30:05
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Guydaley Posts: 10915 Incept: 2007-07-10
Missouri & Wyoming
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Its going to be interesting to see how this pans out, of course it would be fun too if I could profit on it as well, which doesn't seem to be the case as of late. Have to figure out how to get honest Americans into office instead of politicians pandering to corporations. Not sure we can turn things around otherwise. If Pelosi gets that amnesty passed for agriculture workers. I will never forgive the institution of America or the people that live here. I actually donated to infoAmerica today and I don't donate to anything EVER except for animal causes. ---------- 2/17/09 = Hogzilla bill was signed = THE POINT OF NO RETURN = Cheers to the Reset, LONG LIVE THE UNDERGROUND ECONOMY! STARVE the BEAST! Adopt a J6P. Last modified:
2008-05-19 14:38:59 by guydaley
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Mvo Posts: 493 Incept: 2007-06-27
NYC
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Karl, I'd greatly appreciate if you could point to a more detailed reference on when this P/E calculation change took place.
2008-05-19 14:40:00
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Fatso Posts: 1764 Incept: 2008-02-03
Roll on up, gonna roll back down
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Quote:...the Dow Jones is trading at a P/E of 87, the S&P at 23.8, the Nasdaq at 31.5, the Russell 2000 at 66 and the Nasdaq at 23. Don't want to be anal about it. Just not sure which Naz quote is being reported. ---------- The most defining theme, and overriding purpose, of the U.S. Constitution is to limit the power of the federal government. Over that, there can be no historical, or textual, debate. - Tickerfan
2008-05-19 14:43:28
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Pull the link - its the entire composite, not the Qs (NDX)
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-05-19 14:46:15
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Jparks Posts: 490 Incept: 2008-04-07
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What would the PE of the Dow be if using the pre-1980 calculation method??
---------- "We used to be a country that made ****. Now, we just have our hand in everybody else's pocket." Sobatka, The Wire.
2008-05-19 14:49:03
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Who the hell knows. The key point is that you can't look at historical P/Es from say, the 1970s and before and make any sense out of them compared to today. The start of the last bull market (90s) and forward are good comps, but where the Dow Jokes is right now is obscene. Yahoo and some other sites don't include negative earnings - that's a blatant fraud as not including the weak companies of course makes the market look cheaper than it really is! ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-05-19 14:51:14
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Jkilkelly Posts: 1419 Incept: 2007-07-20
Mercer Island WA
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The Senator sounds like a character from an Austin Powers movie. ---------- “They say there are no atheists in a foxhole. Well, there are no libertarians in a financial crisis, either.'' Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard economist
2008-05-19 14:52:53
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Sharon Posts: 1786 Incept: 2008-02-10
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Quote:"We've been finding an increasing number of "hidden listings" of REO properties. A hidden listing is when a broker lists the property in such a fashion that it cannot be found by local agents working with buyers. This might be unintentional, due to gross negligence, or it might be fraud. The fraud end is clear. If the listing is hidden, eventually the REO owner will keep dropping the price until it is sold. At some point, when the price is low enough, the listing agent can call a friend to buy the property, which they will flip after closing. " I've suspected this was going on in our local real estate market. Foreclosures that were listed last year have simply disappeared from the listings--and a drive-by reveals that they have not been sold. No "for sale" signs in the yards, no flyer posted in a window, indicating who to contact to purchase. I know of one foreclosed property that was offered at auction on eBay. I'm pretty sure it was the bank that was trying to sell the place on eBay, since my last information was that the property was an REO. I was told by the city that the bank was paying the property taxes. It will be amusing to see just how low the price has to go before there's a sale "on the down-low" to an insider/flipper. Bet they'll wish they had taken the price they were offered at auction on the courthouse steps.
2008-05-19 14:53:15
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Sharon Posts: 1786 Incept: 2008-02-10
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Another thing that's interesting is that these "hidden listings" formerly appeared on the HUD website, and have disappeared from there too.
2008-05-19 14:56:19
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Jpick Posts: 1305 Incept: 2008-01-22
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I wonder if someone could start a "shadow corporate statistics" site that would give p/e and gaap reporting and other stats using past measures...if it was well-researched and high quality, i would pay a lot to subscribe to that.
2008-05-19 15:34:08
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Ponzi_unit Posts: 4439 Incept: 2007-09-05
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Can't beat them join them? Dang KD, say it isn't so! I thought you'd be the last do say something like this. Our next POTUS is going to be a black Teddy Roosevelt with a new, New Deal and he's going to browbeat the liberals into all levels of guilt. Just as police tipster lines are ringing off the hooks for people trying to claim rewards the IRS hot lines are going to light on fire as municipalities and states attempt to optimize their collection efforts. Welcome to the wild, wild west!
2008-05-19 15:52:59
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Rutben Posts: 900 Incept: 2007-07-27
Phoenix, AZ
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Re. "hidden listings" this from a realtor friend in Phoenix: "It is everywhere! Agents have some listed with the MLS but no response when you try to reach them. Many don't have signs on them and the weeds are waist high and the pools are green. HOA managers are pulling their hair out. It is absolutely incredible. It's another fraud mechanism starting to rear its ugly head. NO NAME real estate companies - I'm working on 2 right now that I've contacted the agents several times and they will not respond! They put in the listing that an offer can't be submitted without their doc's - hence, if you can't contact them, how do you write the offer?"
2008-05-19 16:05:11
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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The "Realtors" were part of this fraud on the way up, and now they're committing fraud on the way down. This "profession" is going to end up being treated like the moonshiners before we're done, and with good cause. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-05-19 16:32:10
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Dirtysouth Posts: 2766 Incept: 2007-09-20
Love Truth Honour ॐ Banned
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Quote:Speaking of liars, here's another group - "business economists": This is worst case scenario in my eyes. If the Bears are wrong, we truly are in for a A Greater Squickinin' ---------- Forest First...Trees Second Feb 9 ~ Mar 11 ~ Apr 09 ~ May 09 ~ Jun 07 ~ Jul 07 ~ Jul 22 ~ Aug 06 ~ Sep 04 ~ Oct 04 ~ Nov 02 ~ Dec 02 ~ Dec 31
2008-05-19 17:00:01
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Never happen. The "spend more than you make" consumer cannot regain that capability. That excess consumption will adjust out. When it does, we will then have a sustainable economy. It ain't there as of yet. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-05-19 17:01:55
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