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| User Info | Lyin' Bankers, Meet Mathematics in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26 
Royal Flush! 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/710-Ly....
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2009-01-04 13:06:30
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Venkman Posts: 2608 Incept: 2008-03-08 
Central Florida
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Assume they aren't idiots for a moment. They know what you know, and know how it'll end. Why are they doing it? (I'm not disagreeing with you, but like them or hate them, these guys aren't stupid. Something else is causing them to act this way. What?) ---------- Skittle crapping Unicorns - Taste the Rainbow! 2009-01-04 13:29:23
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Self-preservation is the simplest explanation. Why blow your own head off today when you can put it off until tomorrow? ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2009-01-04 13:31:02
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Venkman Posts: 2608 Incept: 2008-03-08
Central Florida
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Yeah, I think you're right. A big problem with your proposed solution is that someone has to be the one that causes a lot of people a lot of pain. Telling them it'll only be worse later isn't going to save that person's ass. "Hey... it's not -our- fault. We -tried- to fix it." Bleah. ---------- Skittle crapping Unicorns - Taste the Rainbow! 2009-01-04 13:34:58
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Stonedog Posts: 1068 Incept: 2008-05-29
New Jersey
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KD- Awesome ticker! Stuff we should all learn in HS. I am ashamed to say that this was something that I only learned in college not HS. The funny thing is that my NJ HS was even back then (late 80s) one of the top 10% in the State. Edit - Karl - 4 tickers in 24 hours. Dude you're on fire! It's almost impossible to keep up with you. I almost afraid to leave your website for more than a minute in case of a new post ---------- "F**k CNBS, CONgress, Obama, the Democrats, the Republicans, the ratings agencies, the Banksters, the Fed, the FASB, all the government regulatory agencies, the Trilateral Commission, the Council of Foreign Relations, the G whatever, the UN, and any other bastard or big corporate interest that has a fingerprint on this Last modified:
2009-01-04 13:40:34 by stonedog
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Venkman Posts: 2608 Incept: 2008-03-08
Central Florida
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"Gen" is really the first AI. The internet's self aware and -****ed off-. ---------- Skittle crapping Unicorns - Taste the Rainbow! Last modified:
2009-01-04 13:53:39 by venkman
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Sp Posts: 47 Incept: 2008-02-26
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Since you understand exponential functions and I have failed miserably high school math, for how long can we prolong YOUR inevitable collapse? Two more years? Ten? Address the issue of the TED spread. Russell covered the compounding of debt ten years ago and we are still here. He skillfully predicted the last five Depressions also. When,...that's WHEN is it all over by? We are now about to create one hundred year mortgages to be held by the government. That should prolong it indefinitely. I didn't say that was desirable but that's where it's going. A tanker can take on a cup of water everyday and still remain afloat on the open sea between ports where it bails itself out. Then there is the small issue of our currency remaining a safe haven for the next twenty years. Are you serious about holding other currencies? I think not. 2009-01-04 13:47:38
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Venkman Posts: 2608 Incept: 2008-03-08
Central Florida
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Quote:When,...that's WHEN is it all over by? When there are no more bubbles to inflate? Where would you blow the next one? ---------- Skittle crapping Unicorns - Taste the Rainbow! 2009-01-04 13:52:38
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Quote:Since you understand exponential functions and I have failed miserably high school math, for how long can we prolong YOUR inevitable collapse? Two more years? Ten? We got seven years from the last rube game and added $10 trillion beyond GDP to do it. In the last twelve months we have added 16% to our national debt and promised to add 50% more (total $7 trillion promised, somewhat over $1t actually spent), yet we have gotten from it a stock and credit market implosion and no indication that any of the disintegration has slowed down, say much less reversed. It is entirely possible that we have reached the event horizon and in fact crossed it, but that can only be determined once it is too late to do anything about it. This much, however, is relatively certain - we are getting half or less of the time between "events" now, and we are adding debt at an exponentially-increasing rate in a wild attempt to stave it off. It started back in 1987 with Greedspan's initial line of bull**** after the 87 crash and has continued since. Two more years? Maybe. Ten? Highly unlikely. This year? Entirely possible. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2009-01-04 13:53:29
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Berkleyreindeer Posts: 533 Incept: 2008-07-22 Minneapolis , MN
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SP: the real problem is that every action has an equal reaction. the tinkering being done in washington is trying to stop the recoil. there does the blast from the bazooka go? it is not being allowed to dissipate. it WILL shop up somewhere. it could be loss of reserve currency status for the US. it could be a massive trade war. it could be a "US First" economic policy designed around natural gas and nuclear power. who knows. but if we keep shoving mortgages into the system without private investors buying them, stay tuned, there will be a recoil. somewhere. and as to where people are hiding--gold is near its high even in the face of deflation. some investors like myself are bottom feeding in the mortgage market expecting them to be paid off. or looking for inflation plays when the dollar breaks. others are hiding in CD's, afraid of loss of principle. everyone has their financial safe place. hell, some are probably remortgaging the house expecting an inflationary spiral. just make sure your own affairs are in order, because there are several very unfriendly ways this mess could turn. ---------- It'll get worse. Just wait. 2009-01-04 13:55:46
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Wthef Posts: 601 Incept: 2008-02-25
philadelphia
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great ticker, i'm going to foward it to some friends that are so called "teachers" in the philadelphia school district. of course there as dumb as or even dumber than the kids there teaching. there in f=in la la land when you talk to them about economics. the skys open up and the sun shines bright but once you mention obama he's going to fix eveything!!..very sad anyway great ticker ---------- "I had to look at her today and sat there staring at her bronze naked body laying in the sun, a flaming red candle in her hand she took me in. Her figure consumed me 36-32-34 and said "take me" I stumbled forward as I engaged her stare and she pulled me down towards her. I ripped off my shirt and dropped my pants, we f 2009-01-04 14:06:35
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Stonedog Posts: 1068 Incept: 2008-05-29
New Jersey
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Wthef - Hate to say. Most of the teachers I've known here in NY/NJ are barely capable of tying their own shoelaces. ] They are not there for the children (with probably MANY exceptions and many EXCEPTIONAL teachers among them). Most of them are there bc - 1) regular and good paycheck; and 2) summers off. ---------- "F**k CNBS, CONgress, Obama, the Democrats, the Republicans, the ratings agencies, the Banksters, the Fed, the FASB, all the government regulatory agencies, the Trilateral Commission, the Council of Foreign Relations, the G whatever, the UN, and any other bastard or big corporate interest that has a fingerprint on this 2009-01-04 14:11:01
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Mayorquimby Posts: 4463 Incept: 2008-09-18 United States of Mortgages Online
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Based upon the rate of funding from abroad, I think TSHTF this year. With demand for goods dropping sharply, we can expect funding to pullback as well and that would be game over, no? Once funding slows, foreign currencies will see the writing on the wall, maybe devalue temporarily as a stop-gap and a vicious spiral/currency/bond dislocation will take effect. I see this happening very soon unless Obama can convince (beg/threaten) China et al to suddenly start funding us AT A LOSS - that is - to give us more cash than they would receive back in purchases of exports. But this just leads to the same place sooner or later (IF we get them to bite). The more numbers I look at, the more it looks like we raced past the event horizon with the bailouts. ---------- - It is impossible to introduce into society a greater evil than this - the conversion of the law into an instrument of plunder. - Government is a great fiction, by which everybody tries to live at the expense of everybody else. - Bastiat Last modified:
2009-01-04 14:12:42 by mayorquimby
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Scalper Posts: 1325 Incept: 2007-10-12 Green Party
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all these pigs do implicitly is try to defy the exponential function. they all go along with the premise that no one wants to blow up together. the sad fact is that these functions don't care what you want or don't want.
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2009-01-04 14:21:40 by scalper
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Widgeon Posts: 5672 Incept: 2007-08-30 
OK Online
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"It's Worth Pulling Out All the Stops" I Agree Ms. Yellen ... Let's Start w/ Firing You and All Like You. 2009-01-04 14:23:49
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Go long 4 Irons.
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2009-01-04 14:24:52
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Gt80 Posts: 218 Incept: 2008-01-20
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Karl- how does the "inevitable collapse" play out? In other words, what are the manifestations of the collapse? Please describe what you foresee for the US economy, markets, interest rates, etc.
2009-01-04 14:34:16
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Bluebird Posts: 453 Incept: 2008-05-02
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I can do this manually on the calculator, but I can't figure out how to do the exponential function. 100 * 1.1 = 110 * 1.1 = 121 * 1.1 = 133.1 * 1.1 = 146.41 * 1.1 = 161.05 But when I try the exponential function, I get 100 * 1.1 exp 5 = 11000000 Help! What did I do wrong? 2009-01-04 14:36:07
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Sp Posts: 47 Incept: 2008-02-26
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Berkley: "...the tinkering being done in Washington is trying to stop the recoil." Indeed. They're attempting to create a curve that never reaches but APPROACHES the inevitable. It's going to create a lot of "old" men before it is over. 2009-01-04 14:38:21
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Venkman Posts: 2608 Incept: 2008-03-08
Central Florida
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Looks like you're hitting the power of 10 key. (Multiply by 10 to the (in your case) 5th). What model calculator do you have? ---------- Skittle crapping Unicorns - Taste the Rainbow! 2009-01-04 14:38:34
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Timbo Posts: 961 Incept: 2008-10-10
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that big-E button isn't y^x, it's scientific notation. You're getting 110E5 = 110 * 10^5.
---------- http://mises.org/story/770 http://www.theplacewithnoname.com/blogs/klessons/index.html If you don't fly the plane and find a place to land, then God will find a place to park you. 2009-01-04 14:38:38
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Joe Posts: 602 Incept: 2008-06-18 Boston, MA
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stone - Just to offer some anecdotal balance, I felt my junior and high schools in central NJ were decent enough (late nineties). We did all of these interest and lease vs. buy problems in Algebra I & II and lots of graph analysis in Pre-Calc. How much any of my fellow mouthbreathers retained may be another story. Personally I know someone who now teaches in roughly the same area of the state (a product of the state college system to boot) and he is highly qualified (think double Computer Science / Physics major). We'll see how long he lasts before burning out. KD - I think the concept of exponential growth is best illustrated by graph. Too many people have trained themselves to be scared of numbers, or worse, equations. 2009-01-04 14:39:59
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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GT: 1. Bond market implodes (that bubble goes boom, not hiss). Government unable to deficit spend. Monstrous contraction in spending + huge tax increases (a NASTY combination) Real interest rates shoot the moon. 2. Equities collapse. SPX 300 - if we're lucky. 3. Unemployment (U3, officially reported) goes WELL north of 10%. U-6 is north of 20%, possibly north of 25%. 20% of all businesses go bankrupt (note that some people are predicting 20% of all RETAILERS go under already - this would be FAR worse and likely bankrupts 50% of all RETAILERS - or more.) 4. GDP collapses, down at least 20% (if it happens soon), 30%+ if this is delayed for another couple of years. 5. Uncontrolled deflation in hard goods (homes, land, cars, boats, machinery, etc) as there is simply no income stream to support prices and credit has a prohibitive cost associated with it. 6. There is a real risk of POLITICAL collapse, which has a very high probability of our government winding up looking very different than it is now. This is the "Hitler" outcome - the worst nightmare possibility. Not highly probable, but that's a "fat tail" event that NOBODY wants to see. The more screwing around we do the higher the probability of the above becomes. Smaller versions of it occur if we take the pain NOW - the longer we wait, the worse all of those outcomes WILL be. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me Last modified:
2009-01-04 14:43:20 by genesis
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Scalper Posts: 1325 Incept: 2007-10-12 Green Party
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just remember that exp. functions, while they blow up faster, also shrink faster too ... all you need is the right differential operator...one that is with respect to variables outside the exponential's domain 
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2009-01-04 14:41:30 by scalper
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Az Posts: 1237 Incept: 2008-09-22
Looking down the Rabbit Hole
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Quote:It is entirely possible that we have reached the event horizon and in fact crossed it. The black hole model is a good analogy, after crossing the event horizon disintegrating effects on matter is almost instantaneous before particles hit singularity. 2009-01-04 14:45:44
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