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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/1511-I....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-10-15 08:41:59
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Jewels Posts: 109 Incept: 2008-03-24 Canada
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Excellent ticker. Thanks Gen.
---------- How now brown cow?
2009-10-15 08:50:49
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Hilandstrata Posts: 58 Incept: 2008-10-19 
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"-and turned a speculative bubble bust into a decade-long economic mess. FDR and The Fed wasn't the solution to The Depression - they were in fact the cause of it, turning a necessary credit contraction into an economic disaster, and we're now doing our level best to repeat those mistakes." And what did that all eventually lead to?...that's right, WAR!
2009-10-15 09:12:09
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Niktesla Posts: 39 Incept: 2009-06-02
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Gen. at some point a substantial amount of reasonable people will recognize that... ...just because the US prints paper, gives it to Banks/Wallstreet, who trade it amongst themselves to bid up the prices of more pieces of paper when NO fundamental underlying business basis exists for those prices going up... ...will loose "faith" which is the ultimate systemic failure. The Sacred Trust that the government and financial industry are squandering is a real *&@# to regain!
2009-10-15 09:18:13
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Kwl88 Posts: 304 Incept: 2009-04-16 KC, MO
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....the silver lining to all this @#$^$@%^ - is that reality will come to those who think FDR was a great or even a good President! They will soon see FDR as the Failure that he truly was AND a fraud as well as just another Robert Preston playing "The Music Man" one of the best swindlers ever! That's the only way he could have been elected in '36,'40 & '44!!! The only good thing about the 1944 election was that HARRY S. TRUMAN became President belatedly, of course. HST - one of the few honest men to become President and ironically from the cesspool of the totally corrupt Pendergast dem political machine in KC!
2009-10-15 09:40:19
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Truesincerity Posts: 590 Incept: 2008-03-07 Virginia
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Well it is written that everyone thought Noah was crazy for building the Arch and warning them....until the Great Flood came....after that they did not think he was so crazy! Keep sounding the alarm KD.
---------- Do not answer a fool according to his folly, or you will be like him yourself.
2009-10-15 09:44:59
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Arkroyal Posts: 87 Incept: 2009-02-04 St. Augustine, FL
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Yep, FDR attacked Pearl Harbor and forced Nazi Germany to declare war on us 4 days later.
2009-10-15 09:45:03
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Kwl88 Posts: 304 Incept: 2009-04-16 KC, MO
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Quote:...FDR attacked Pearl Harbor... Actually, there are some good arguments for FDR crippling our military to such an extent before 1941 - that of course Pearl Harbor was a fantastic victory, due to a 100% blind-side ambush attack, for Japan!
2009-10-15 09:50:01
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Licorice Posts: 920 Incept: 2009-01-06 Online
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If market forces were allowed to work I think there would be considerable deflation, not only in asset prices but in wages as well. Such an outcome would dramatically increase the amount of bad debt in the system. Is all debt that goes bad because of deflation really malinvestment? I think there's something to be said for price stability. ---------- Print the money and give it to the people.
2009-10-15 09:51:08
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Mikek31 Posts: 659 Incept: 2009-05-04 Chicago
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Ah, Warren G. Harding was one of the best damn presidents - he didn't do a damn thing! Too bad our politicians never learned from this guy.
---------- This report is, unfortunately, a whole bottle of "Round Up" dumped on the top of the previous month's "Green Shoot." -Genesis
2009-10-15 09:53:47
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Arkroyal Posts: 87 Incept: 2009-02-04 St. Augustine, FL
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Good argument number 1 is.....
2009-10-15 10:14:28
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Rutben Posts: 900 Incept: 2007-07-27
Phoenix, AZ
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"Firms that respond to this "signal" with inventory builds get destroyed further down the line as the so-called "economic activity" turns out to be false and unsustainable as now you add inventory overhang to credit distress". Fred Hickey (and Fleck in turn), who knows the tech market as well as anyone, has a big red alert out on the semis for this very reason...a lot of misplaced double ordering. They are not short yet but I'm sure will be by early next year. The tail end of the food chain will get killed.
2009-10-15 10:15:50
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Pauperbear Posts: 1407 Incept: 2008-01-22 
norwalk, ct
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trading is zero sum. who is losing when the banks are "winning" using interest free .gov money to with? Who is on the other side of GS,JPM....?
---------- The truth is incontrovertible, malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end; there it is. Winston Churchill
2009-10-15 10:19:45
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Sondergaard Posts: 512 Incept: 2007-07-13
Big Trees
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Gen, I am honestly in awe of your mind, your drive, your focus, and your productivity, and am very grateful for all you do. So it puzzles me when it seems like the ghost of Lee Atwater grabs your hands. You are far too good a student of history to believe that FDR caused the GD. Exacerbated, sure, but as you know he was not even inaugurated until March 1933, almost four years after the initial crash. The Fed on the other hand... ---------- And it won't make one bit of difference if I answer right or wrong; when you're rich, they think you really know. --Fiddler on the Roof
2009-10-15 10:31:54
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Kuhio Posts: 206 Incept: 2008-12-31
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I would characterize the recent market run not so much as positive sentiment, but rather active cynicism. Does anyone really believe 'green shoots'? The MSM? They're paid to say what their masters tell them. Goldman, et al? The deal with Treasury & the Fed was to pump their ill gotten gains (both TARP and the Fed's cash-for-trash program) into equities to produce the illusion of 'recovery'. The market top and subsequent crash won't come about because people have become disenchanted. It will come about because the playerz have milked every long position to its nth diminishing return, and have staked out strategic short positions to make a killing when the trap door is sprung. Last modified:
2009-10-15 10:33:10 by kuhio
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Magnus Posts: 96 Incept: 2009-06-04 Sweden
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I do not care about FDR:s reputation. But USA defeating nazi Germany and the extremely repressive imperialistic Japan and limiting Stalins Sovjet expansion were a grand effort. After spilling an ocean of blood to beat Germany and Japan you forgave them and spent even more to rebuild the fallen enemies as civil and democratic societies. I am sure that whatever you do it will forever be written in the history books that USA in the 1940:s were a very remarkable land with a very remarkable people. We would soon be livig in a paradise on earth If every generation had such a benign power in the international politics!
2009-10-15 10:41:05
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Uppity_peasant Posts: 300 Incept: 2009-06-26 Online
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Kuhio wrote: "The market top and subsequent crash won't come about because people have become disenchanted. It will come about because the playerz have milked every long position to its nth diminishing return, and have staked out strategic short positions to make a killing when the trap door is sprung." Ain't computers great? Too bad Joe 6pk and his 401K don't have access to the sheep-shearing software... ---------- ===== Take your red pill daily @ The Market Ticker, with your host Karl "Morpheus" Denninger
2009-10-15 10:43:13
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Quote:You are far too good a student of history to believe that FDR caused the GD. Exacerbated, sure, but as you know he was not even inaugurated until March 1933, almost four years after the initial crash. FDR and his policies were responsible for turning a nasty (but reasonably fast) economic correction into a 10 year disaster, and that's a fact. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-10-15 10:47:03
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Bluebird Posts: 524 Incept: 2008-05-02
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I don't really see anything being done today, to avert a similar disaster for the next 10 years.
2009-10-15 10:52:06
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Jg1 Posts: 11 Incept: 2008-03-06 La Jolla, CA
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Karl, it was Hoover who turned a potentially steep but brief correction into an ugly, drawn out affair. FDR merely took Hoover's intervention efforts and amplified or expanded them. That was my takeaway from reading Rothbard's "The Great Depression." Last modified:
2009-10-15 11:49:24 by jg1
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Soylent Posts: 16 Incept: 2009-08-27
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Sondergaard - "You are far too good a student of history to believe that FDR caused the GD. Exacerbated, sure, but as you know he was not even inaugurated until March 1933, almost four years after the initial crash." If you look at what FDR campaigned on in 1932 it was lower taxes, lower spending, liquidation, lower tariffs, less bureaucracy, less unescessary wars and more laissez faire. He critized Hoover for his wide-ranging interference in the economy, his high taxes and high tariffs. He was correct, until Roosevelt came into power Hoover was probably the most medlessome president in US history. What Roosevelt actually did when he was elected was Hoover-on-steroids. It is a modern fabrication that Hoover caused the depression with his laissez faire, hands-off aproach; Hoover initiated the great depression with massive government intervention and FDR carried the torch. Roosevelt flirted with government planing and corporatism. So much so that it caused "regime uncertainty", capitalists could not predict the future status of their ownership or the contracts they enter into for all the crazy ad hoc policies of FDR, they chose to defer their investment or invest outside of the US. Last modified:
2009-10-15 11:57:36 by soylent
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Quote:Karl, it was Hoover who turned a potentially steep but brief correction into an ugly, drawn out affair. FDR merely took Hoover's intervention efforts and amplified or expanded them. Might want to look at facts instead of reading those who have a vested interest in bull****. What FDR said was exactly the opposite of what he DID. FDR was damn close to Hitler in terms of his abuse of the Constitution and Free Market principles, and indeed much of what he did was overturned by the courts. The attempt to lionize him is an outrage - exactly how is burning farmer's crops and shooting their livestock "free market", or anything less than an open declaration of warfare on one's citizens? ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-10-15 16:34:48
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Thoreau Posts: 399 Incept: 2007-08-30
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Harding and Coolidge were the best presidents!
2009-10-15 18:10:02
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Dbcooper Posts: 672 Incept: 2009-05-12 PNW
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"This was the error of trying to "manage" the Depression in this fashion. Note that coming off the 1921 economic contraction Warren Harding (then-President) along with The Fed took a hands-off approach and the market forced the malinvestment from the system; the consequence was that in less than two years unemployment fell from 12% to 3.2% and the economy roared back" I recall not one but a few Tickers where you stated this and i agree/Then. "Contrast this "hands off" approach to that of just a decade later when instead of forcing the bubble credit expansion of the late 1920s out of the system The Government instead undertook to "manage" the problem - and turned a speculative bubble bust into a decade-long economic mess." "FDR and The Fed wasn't the solution to The Depression - they were in fact the cause of it, turning a necessary credit contraction into an economic disaster, and we're now doing our level best to repeat those mistakes." Im curiuos as to whether do you believe that not only are they prolonging this maybe in some odd model or hope that atleast we have some stagflation scenario? Rather than some implosion. Last modified:
2009-10-15 18:35:29 by dbcooper
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Moonoverseattle Posts: 2776 Incept: 2008-02-02
MOTEL 6
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FDR was damn close to Hitler in terms of his abuse of the Constitution and Free Market principles spot on Karl thats always been my take. FDR is one of the Worst presidents bar none. ---------- A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury.
2009-10-15 18:43:11
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