RSS available
| MarketTicker Forums Read Message in Ticker |
User: Not logged on
|
| Top | Forum Top | Login | Control Panel | FAQ | Register | Logout |
| Showing Page 1 of 5 | First | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Last |
| User Info | How To Create A Depression in forum [Ticker] | |||
|
Genesis Posts: 66462 Incept: 2007-06-26 
Royal Flush! 
|
http://market-ticker.org/archives/672-Ho....
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-12-03 09:15:22
| |||
|
Eb Posts: 370 Incept: 2008-11-11 
Virginia Suspended
|
Karl are you sold on a depression at this point? I am thinking a lost, Japan style, decade is also a strong possibility.
2008-12-03 09:24:03
| |||
|
Genesis Posts: 66462 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
|
A deflationary "lost two decades" (Japan) is effectively identical to a Depression. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-12-03 09:25:58
| |||
|
Eb Posts: 370 Incept: 2008-11-11
Virginia Suspended
|
If I am not mistaken, Japan did not see sharp decreases in output (maybe a total loss of 5% and a long period of stangnation) and increases in unemployment. Isn't that preferable to output declining 10-20%?
2008-12-03 09:30:02
| |||
|
Genesis Posts: 66462 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
|
Not when it goes on for 20 years! The problem with the meddling is that it produces the dislocation; recession is how inefficiencies are purged from the system. Attempting to prevent it by papering it over with debt is how you get Depressions or "slumps" (ala Japan) ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-12-03 09:35:51
| |||
|
Baldy Posts: 6203 Incept: 2008-05-16 
Pittsburgh
|
IMO, the reason Japan lost decade(s) seemed painless compared to the GD was Japan was alone and still could export and their people were savers. Here, such an experience would NOT be painless as we are not savers (net) and the rest of the world is a MESS too.
---------- Short term Treasury rates 1920-1941 monthly - note: some months the average was negative (2 page PDF) http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publications/bms/page/409/61/download/409.pdf 2008-12-03 09:37:09
| |||
|
Windu Posts: 1325 Incept: 2007-08-01
ATL, Jawja
|
At this point, we're spectating the desperate futile actions of people who have spent lifetimes becoming experts in a flawed theory which is rapidly being proven thus by the godlike perfection of mathematics. These men are like the learned cartographers of ancient times who believed the Earth was flat. Only the result for all of us will be more like things would have been in an alternate universe where men had gone sailing believing the Earth to be round when it was actually flat. ---------- The crash has laid bare many unpleasant truths about the United States. One of the most alarming, says a former chief economist of the Intl Monetary Fund, is that the finance industry has effectively captured our government. Read the "Quiet Coup" article. http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice 2008-12-03 09:37:10
| |||
|
Eb Posts: 370 Incept: 2008-11-11
Virginia Suspended
|
Karl: It seems as though it will be easier for the government to manage the country in stagnation, than if we see a sharp drop in output and a sharp increase in unemployment. It makes governance easier and gives Obama a better chance at re-election. Sucks, I agree, but from the perspective of the talking heads, this is a preferable outcome. 2008-12-03 09:44:33
| |||
|
J0nx Posts: 1180 Incept: 2008-08-12
Cubs Win!! Cubs Win!!
|
Well said Gen. I tried like hell to get folks to not vote for the clown here in Va. that voted for the bailout and they all voted for them again because the guy or gal running against them was worse. Screw that, I voted for the most liberal POS in the world to get my congressman out who voted for it and she got beaten for the 3rd time in a landslide. She keeps running against him every other year and keeps getting her ass handed to her. People will never learn. We deserve what we get. I truly believe that.
---------- Work is for suckers. - Resistance 2008-12-03 09:44:56
| |||
|
Widgeon Posts: 5671 Incept: 2007-08-30
OK
|
US Congress has had a higher return rate than the Politbureau for decades.
2008-12-03 09:47:33
| |||
|
Mm^^ Posts: 2236 Incept: 2008-10-01
Gone, Baby, Gone
|
While your points are valid, there is one you neglected (this time.) "You can't fix stupid." Most are, and most will stay that way. However, it appears the strategy of the "man" is becoming very apparent. As long as oil, but more importantly, T-Bills are valued in USD, then spending as fast as possible appears to be the tactic (they can always issue more debt to cover the rollover debt). Like you say, these guys aren't stupid, so know what's coming. Maybe China starts to demand being paid back in Yuan, eh? That's when the real depression starts. ---------- I always leave cookies. 2008-12-03 10:10:25
| |||
|
Genesis Posts: 66462 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
|
The Depression is happening NOW. Note that NBER took a ****ing YEAR to declare what I called last winter. They'll be a year or more behind this one too. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-12-03 10:11:39
| |||
|
Kickthecan Posts: 344 Incept: 2008-11-06
Seattle bound from No VA
|
Eb wrote..
Let's say they had a 15% GDP decline over a few years, followed by 2% growth for 15 years. Under that scenario, they would have a GDP about 15% higher and much less government debt than at present. 2008-12-03 10:15:25
| |||
|
Eb Posts: 370 Incept: 2008-11-11
Virginia Suspended
|
Economic stagnation is easier for a government to manage than economic collapse. I disagree with Genesis, I don't think we are going into a Depression. We are going into economic stagnation, ala Japan, which are not the same thing.
2008-12-03 10:23:16
| |||
|
Mm^^ Posts: 2236 Incept: 2008-10-01
Gone, Baby, Gone
|
Screw NIBER. These guys cook the numbers to say what they want it to say. IF you're defining a depression in the classical way, then you may be spot on. I can't disprove it with the crap we have for input. My point is that J6P maybe hasn't quite got it yet. Sure, he's not buying much, but he isn't marching in the streets, either. Maybe that's the end game for the politicos.............keep the music playing while the ship slowly disappears. I wonder how long we have until the music stops......Somebody knows this, me thinks. ---------- I always leave cookies. 2008-12-03 10:25:57
| |||
|
Trades50 Posts: 817 Incept: 2007-10-30
IL Online
|
Thought a milder form of this event would occur in the 2001 to 2003 timeframe. I was wrong. The Fed dropped rates to 1/2% back then. Now their doing it again with a greater debt-load on their balance sheets. I'm amazed their doing it again. Bill Gross (got his bailout so he's happy)was on CNBC this morning stating mortgage rates are going to 4.5 to 5.0% in a couple of quarters. So their trying revive housing now by dropping rates. A rush of refinancing again? The Fed have people believeing that all the bad debt taken in by the taxpayer has no effect. Still see congress pushing to get more H1Bs into the US to push down engineering/technical wages. How can the US keep outsourcing jobs, pushing wages lower and taking on more debt? Add in the bills from the retiring baby-boomers in the near-term. Logic tells one that this nonsense has to stop. 2008-12-03 10:26:48
| |||
|
Philter Posts: 43 Incept: 2008-05-16 Banned
|
In many if not most cases there was no candidate on a ballot who was against the bailouts for whom to vote as an alternative to incumbents. So for you to claim that the American people are to blame is little more than hyperbole. If you wanted to blame the American people for not rising up and having a revolution, you might have a point, except then you would simply be acting hypocritical, because you're still playing the same game as all the rest of us. Let us know when you start your tax revolt or take up arms against the American empire- until then, it's tedious listening to you rant and rave against all the other Americans stuck in the same ******n boat as you. 2008-12-03 10:38:33
| |||
|
Genesis Posts: 66462 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
|
45 people show up to protest. I'm one of them. The people don't give a **** - its that simple. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-12-03 10:40:02
| |||
|
Eb Posts: 370 Incept: 2008-11-11
Virginia Suspended
|
Philter, if you have read KD's posts you would know that he has spent a lot of time, effort and money trying to get the higher ups to have a clue. A hypocrite, KD is not.
2008-12-03 10:41:46
| |||
|
Eb Posts: 370 Incept: 2008-11-11
Virginia Suspended
|
KD - the lost decade we are going to have will allow the government to distract the people with American Idol.
2008-12-03 10:42:26
| |||
|
Genesis Posts: 66462 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
|
Its hard to be distracted when you're living in a refrigerator box.
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-12-03 10:43:15
| |||
|
Philter Posts: 43 Incept: 2008-05-16 Banned
|
You think maybe being financial guys you're a little closer to the source? You think maybe your perspective is a little different than ordinary people? Ordinary people have no clue what is happening and are lacking the background of information to even be able to make sense out of it IF the message was actually reaching them. I firmly believe that the outcome of this election was about the best you can hope for from our electorate. They knew something was wrong and tried to do what they thought was the best thing, which was to vote for a new direction. Last modified:
2008-12-03 10:46:01 by philter
| |||
|
Genesis Posts: 66462 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
|
I think that our educational system is largely responsible for this as 100 years ago everyone had to know how to do compound interest and discount computations ON PAPER (we didn't have calculators, you know) in order to graduate FROM THE EIGTH ****ING GRADE. Now you can't find one HIGH SCHOOL graduate in 10 who understands these two things, and I'll bet 75% of Congress doesn't either. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-12-03 10:45:49
| |||
|
Phirang Posts: 8083 Incept: 2008-10-25
Fields of Cannae
|
Philter: People in this country trample each other to death for a tv. What the **** do they care about "freedom"? They can't handle freedom, anyway: they're too damn stupid. Considering this, it ain't so bad having 100 families run the country: at least you can figure out their agenda and CYA. ---------- In the space of a weekend, I nearly lost everything and got it all back. - Clayton Riddell 2008-12-03 10:47:21
| |||
|
Philter Posts: 43 Incept: 2008-05-16 Banned
|
The thing is, is that why should people need advanced education in finance to live their life as a carpenter or an auto mechanic? The problem is not that your average person is too dumb. The problem is the clever greedy people taking advantage of how dumb the average person is.
2008-12-03 10:47:44
| |||
| Top | Forum Top | Login | Control Panel | Logout |
| Showing Page 1 of 5 | First | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Last |