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| User Info | No End To The Recession Yet, and The Ticking Bomb.... in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2008/....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-04-22 11:16:13
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Stevematulis Posts: 1403 Incept: 2008-01-08 
Republic of Texas
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another damn good ticker, karl. this one gave me wood because the market seems to be finally turning decisively downward.
2008-04-22 12:22:47
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If Posts: 495 Incept: 2008-01-06
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Great as usual Karl. Once again I am going to send this out to a few friends and family who still don't get it. They are driving me crazy. They are about to plunge off a 1000ft. cliff and they think they will have a soft landing. ---------- Be aware, be prepared. Fight organized crime. Re-elect no one.
2008-04-22 12:41:15
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Thisthatother47 Posts: 287 Incept: 2007-09-15
St Paul, MN
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Speaking of FedEx. Customized a laptop last week through HP. They said it would be done by the 25th, and with 6 to 8 days for shipping I should get it in early May. My thesis was that neither HP nor Fedex has anything better to do right now - sure enough I got it YESTERDAY - from China - in one week. Oh, and shipping was free and I found a 30% off coupon (in 15 seconds of searching online) for the computer, as well as throwing in a free printer - tell me how you think margins are working out in the real world? ---------- So I washed it down in gasoline And dried it with a match - ike reilly
2008-04-22 12:55:15
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Rigger Posts: 45 Incept: 2008-04-07 United Kingdom
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'Existing home sales fell 2%, inventories rose (again), median home prices down 7.7% y/o/y, with the biggest fall in prices in the west - off 14%.' what do you think will happen when 97% of repo's (Hedgie's figure saw it in one of his clips) start selling at auction?ouch! ---------- Oh Dear!
2008-04-22 13:27:55
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Stormsailor1981 Posts: 8449 Incept: 2007-06-26
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president bush was on air a couple of hours back saying we were not in a recession, just "an economic slowdown"
2008-04-22 13:40:29
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Uh huh. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-04-22 14:18:21
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Jpick Posts: 1305 Incept: 2008-01-22
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 well done gen, but i have a question. I was actually thinking that with how some of the fuel contracts are done (for instance they pay the same price for fuel if oil is in between say, $90-110), that this last run-up in crude will actually not start to show up that much until later THIS quarter...which would really make the bottom fall out of the transports. am I way off on this? thanks
2008-04-22 14:34:29
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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You're right, there is some forward hedging. The problem with hedges like this is that they run out. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-04-22 14:40:38
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Shrpblnd Posts: 1169 Incept: 2007-08-06
Los Angeles, CA Online
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There is definitely some forward hedging, which creates a lag. Southwest in fact did very well locking up some long term fuel contracts when oil was around $50-60 a barrel. However, many of these hedging contracts are now expiring. I know Southwest just recently had a big contract finally expire. Also, airlines that were in BK, like United and Delta, were generally restricted from hedging fuel prices during the process. Also keep in mind, fuel prices are never fully hedged, and the balance has to be purchased on the spot market.
2008-04-22 15:16:54
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Jpick Posts: 1305 Incept: 2008-01-22
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ok, thanks guys. that is kind what i was thinking is now that oil has had such a run-up, and for some time now, that fuel cost hedges would being losing some of their effectiveness in these next couple of quarters. I guess something to look forward to in the transports given how that is the latest data point being used by the bulls to say the economy is fine. granted, they will think of something else by the time the transports weaken...stimulus checks this quarter will be a big one.
2008-04-22 15:45:13
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Lkruvant Posts: 4439 Incept: 2008-03-13
DC - VA Online
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Quote:Speaking of FedEx. Thanks for another put idea, Thisthat
2008-04-22 17:08:20
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Waas Posts: 789 Incept: 2007-09-05
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Karl, Did you catch this from the Naked Capitalism Blog Quote:Today, we had the biggest bank fundraising announced to date, RBS's hugely dilutive £12 billion equity sale (and that's in addition to £4 billion of asset sales). Reader Steve pointed us to a key item from the press release: the Scottish bank's writedowns are markedly deeper than those taken by US banks to date, suggesting that the worst is not over on this side of the Atlantic. They have marked their US Alt-As at 50% of face, subprime at 38%, and CMBS at 83%. I wonder how far down the US banks have to go to get to where RBS just did.
2008-04-22 17:08:56
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Oh cute. That'll be in tomorrow's edition.... ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-04-22 17:11:58
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Jpick Posts: 1305 Incept: 2008-01-22
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did anyone see mish's analysis of the british banks...they have lower tier 1 ratios than ours. they have no choice really, they must dilute.
2008-04-22 18:44:33
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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So are ours! See what Moody's did tonight? Heh heh heh....... putbacks are a-coming out of the Fed Window! ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-04-22 18:45:23
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Pikachu Posts: 5074 Incept: 2007-08-24 
Down under
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fingers crossed...
2008-04-22 18:48:47
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Reddweb Posts: 381 Incept: 2008-01-20
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just between Monday and Tuesday, calculations by Housing Wire show that the rating agency has slashed ratings on 1,923 tranches from 232 seperate subprime RMBS deals from 2005-2007 vintages. http://www.housingwire.com/2008/04/22/st.... Does this have anything to do with senate hearings on rating agencies? rating agencies are probably afraid of some jail-time and bubba. was watching CNBS today morning, and couple of senators were saying "if aaa rated stuff goes to **** in less than 6months, how come its aaa in the first place". hmmmm...there is hope!
2008-04-22 20:45:59
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Jpick Posts: 1305 Incept: 2008-01-22
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"So are ours! See what Moody's did tonight?" yeah, i saw that, more dilution on the way, yet the dumbasses who listen to bove will rally them...  http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.c.... anyways, here the article, I hadn't realized how low the british banks were. here's the money quote "Note that the Tier 1 capital ratios are worse at Royal Bank of Scotland - 4%, Barclays - 4.8% , HBOS - 5.7% , Lloyds TSB - 7.3%, and Alliance & Leicester - 6.9% than at Citigroup - 7.7%. Of course the next question is how much level 3 assets, SIVs, and other off balance sheet garbage are the above hiding? Whatever it is, things do not look good for the entire group. Dividend cuts and more capital raising is in store for all of the above as the recession deepens." 
2008-04-22 22:44:59
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Tonyh Posts: 1169 Incept: 2007-12-01
Spring, TX
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FWIW: On the negative savings rate, here's a blog post with some resources of actual data on that as well as the debt levels of consumers. http://www.getrichslowly.org/blog/2008/0.... J6P is using it, the country as an entity is using it, but negative cash flow is a business model destined for failure. J6P is finding it out since he cannot refinance any more, is government debt gonna be next? (non [re]financeable at these rates)... ---------- The following statement is true. The preceding statement was false.
2008-04-22 22:47:32
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