RSS available
| MarketTicker Forums Read Message in Ticker |
User: Not logged on
|
| Top | Forum Top | Login | Control Panel | FAQ | Register | Logout |
| Showing Page 1 of 5 | First | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Last |
| User Info | Three Month Wrap-Up (1Q 2009) in forum [Ticker] | ||||
|
Genesis Posts: 71431 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
|
http://market-ticker.org/archives/911-Th....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-03-29 15:04:13
Permalink | ||||
|
Obseedian Posts: 8254 Incept: 2007-07-26 
RIMM Central
|
FYI GDP was 14,264.6 billion dollars in 2008, an increase of $457.6 billion over 2007. Total nonfinancial + financial debt increased $2,885 billion in the same period. ---------- Would you give your money to these banks? http://bankimplode.com/list/troubledbank.... Genitalia - Not just another Italian airline!
2009-03-29 15:42:37
Permalink | ||||
|
Genesis Posts: 71431 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
|
A 7-fold increase (roughly)... yep.
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-03-29 15:43:13
Permalink | ||||
|
Solnow Posts: 829 Incept: 2009-03-02 My Market Model
|
If your scenarios are true, and I believe they are, we're ****ed either route we take. Is it not simply too late?
---------- Adapt. Improvise. Overcome. HOPE is for sissies
2009-03-29 15:55:29
Permalink | ||||
|
Lastchance Posts: 1132 Incept: 2008-11-19 Las Vegas
|
"Meanwhile, needing to squeeze someone, most emerging-market governments look first to ordinary working folk—at least until the riots grow too large." I think that applies to ALL governments. It will be interesting to see if things stay under control at the G20. Anyway, I think we have to concede the other guys easily won 1Q 2009. But it's a long game and they are not invincible. ---------- "We don't quit. I don't quit" President Obama 1/27/10 Man, I would to have him in one of our poker games.
2009-03-29 15:57:14
Permalink | ||||
|
Baldy Posts: 6555 Incept: 2008-05-16
Pittsburgh
|
We are worse off if we keep loading up on debt, and transferring private debt to the taxpayer. It's bad if large companies and great swaths of the public go bankrupt, but it is catastrophic if the govt does so. They need to realize this VERY soon. I imagine QE has started a clock ticking.
---------- FY2011 Budget - Hist'l Tables (PDF 2.0 MB) http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2011/assets/hist.pdf 1996-2011 budgets: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/browse.html
2009-03-29 16:06:14
Permalink | ||||
|
Stonedog Posts: 1105 Incept: 2008-05-29
New Jersey Online
|
Eventually, debt will begin to have a marginal negative impact on GDP rather than a marginal positive impact on GDP..probably sooner rather than later.
---------- "F**k CNBS, CONgress, Obama, the Democrats, the Republicans, the ratings agencies, the Banksters, the Fed, the FASB, all the government regulatory agencies, the Trilateral Commission, the Council of Foreign Relations, the G whatever, the UN, and any other bastard or big corporate interest that has a fingerprint on this
2009-03-29 16:15:46
Permalink | ||||
|
Firefly Posts: 170 Incept: 2009-03-20 
NYC
|
Karl, how do you see this mess playing out? Where are we going to be in 3 months? 6? 12? As you and others have said on more than one occasion, you can't fight math. I am becoming increasingly convinced that some manner of default by .gov is inevitable, and based on their actions, I wonder if they know that too? That their actions, rather than a genuine attempt to fix the problem are more about preparing for what's next because they know they CAN'T fix the problem? I don't know, but I am starting to feel more and more like a tinfoil hat wearing whackjob, and I'm beginning to scare my friends and family! Those that believe me end up frightened about what's coming, those that don't about my mental health.
2009-03-29 16:43:37
Permalink | ||||
|
Genesis Posts: 71431 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
|
Read the 2009 prediction Ticker. Its all there. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-03-29 16:44:44
Permalink | ||||
|
Brucelee Posts: 837 Incept: 2007-09-12 detroit, mi
|
karl, it's easy to see when you lay it all out what the end is going to look like and i have to believe the .gov sees it too. why are they headstrong at not making the hard decisions? inevitable is inevitable. part of me thinks Obama wants to kick it down the road for as long as possible to get re-elected but i'm not sure we have that long. the other part of me thinks he has no clue and is getting bad advice from his "trusted" advisors.
---------- "There is no way it can be allowed to be more prosperous than those it has failed, and those who pay its salaries." - Bozonian
2009-03-29 16:55:50
Permalink | ||||
|
Genesis Posts: 71431 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
|
He's a one-termer either way. He's running the risk of being the first Black President, and the last President. That outcome is not assured, but he's headed straight for it. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-03-29 16:57:18
Permalink | ||||
|
Brucelee Posts: 837 Incept: 2007-09-12 detroit, mi
|
jeezus lord those are scary words and i almost missed it.
---------- "There is no way it can be allowed to be more prosperous than those it has failed, and those who pay its salaries." - Bozonian
2009-03-29 17:06:37
Permalink | ||||
|
Arrack979 Posts: 1271 Incept: 2008-07-15
Blue State Hell
|
If the current POTUS royally ****s up (which is looking increasingly likely), the accompanying fallout will set race relations back decades at least. Not saying it should or would be rational, just saying it would. ---------- Cash IS a position, just like fetal and reverse cowgirl
2009-03-29 17:06:48
Permalink | ||||
|
Solnow Posts: 829 Incept: 2009-03-02 My Market Model
|
Maybe I'm just not getting it. How is constraining debt to GDP to sustainable levels, eliminating $25 trillion in gov't debt, not considered BK? At this point in time have we not gone beyond the fix-it up plans? And if so, how is wasting my time continuing to beat my head against a congressional wall (sending letters, calls, tea bags, etc.) demanding they not spend another trillion or two going to change anything?
---------- Adapt. Improvise. Overcome. HOPE is for sissies
2009-03-29 17:19:30
Permalink | ||||
|
Hilandstrata Posts: 58 Incept: 2008-10-19
|
Gov. must want a collapse or believe they can pull a rabbit out of the hat.
2009-03-29 17:25:28
Permalink | ||||
|
Trappped Posts: 73 Incept: 2009-02-13 Banned
|
I think mostly everyone in the government is simply in denial . All I can think of is watching the movie "Titanic", and seeing the captain staying at his post like nothing whatsover is wrong.
2009-03-29 17:30:44
Permalink | ||||
|
Firefly Posts: 170 Incept: 2009-03-20
NYC
|
Well, let's check some of your predictions and see where we are. Job loss will continue through the year and unemployment will reach 8% in the "headline" statistic by the end of the year. Check. In February. Housing prices will continue to decline. So far, so good. The Fed's attempt to "pump liquidity" will be shown to be an abject failure. If that doesn't work, we'll throw another Trillion or two we don't have at it. Once again, so far, so good. The pound or euro - and perhaps both - will likely be where the FX dislocation initiates if it occurs. Pardon my ignorance, what does this mean? The US Consumer will go from a negative savings rate to a seriously-positive one. I am predicting 4% in 2009 but it could go as high as 10%. Check. Commercial Real Estate will effectively collapse Starting to happen. Foreign uptake of Treasuries will be choked off - by necessity. This is the so-called bond market dislocation, yes? How will we know when that happens? Does it occur over weeks and months, or is it something that happens in 30 seconds? More importantly, what comes after that? Scary that so much of what you wrote has already come to pass.
2009-03-29 17:38:42
Permalink | ||||
|
Skipper Posts: 46 Incept: 2009-03-05 England
|
Genesis, I really, really do not intend to patronize or doubt your integrity (I am new to this site and way of thinking) but...
"He's a one-termer either way. He's running the risk of being the first Black President, and the last President. That outcome is not assured, but he's headed straight for it."
Yes, President Obama being a one termer I can see. First black President, a given. But can you really see such an apocalyptic outcome - last US President? Gawd. If so, glad I've got a market garden, shame we Brits can't own guns....
Last modified:
2009-03-29 17:47:51 by skipper
| ||||
|
Genesis Posts: 71431 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
|
Yes I do believe that is possible. Very possible.
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-03-29 18:00:20
Permalink | ||||
|
Trappped Posts: 73 Incept: 2009-02-13 Banned
|
Skipper, We are driving straight towards the edge of a cliff.....we are a ways away, but we can see it. Obviously, we have time to change course, but we haven't. 3 1/2 years left in Barry's term, still a long tme for him to do the "right things". But so far he hasn't. So if we continue on this path as a country....some big "IF's", the second fall of the great Roman empire is NOT that inconcievable !!!
2009-03-29 18:00:26
Permalink | ||||
|
Laura Posts: 3153 Incept: 2008-05-05
Florida Space Coast
|
I just did this in my head. I can't believe you posted it. Guild (Brit bond) has dislocated recently - the gov can't sell all they want to sell. US Treasuries (US bond) haven't dislocated completely. Ben's buying the 10 yr and 30 yr to force interest rates lower than they would be naturally. Other countries have already quit buying the 10/30 yr and are buying the 2 yr/3 month US Treasuries only. They are basically converting their long bond holdings to short-term UST holdings rather than actually buying MORE US treasuries. Ben started his purchases last week, the other nations have been moving their funds around since last Fall and possibly earlier. At some point Ben owns all the bonds and can't roll over US debt that's dislocation. There are a lot of US bonds in circulation so the process has started, what remains to be seen is whether a day will come that Ben can stop buying the long bonds or whether the day will come that sovereigns will no longer buy US short bonds. Obviously, the over-indebted US consumer can not fill the gap between the debt bought by other sovereigns and the new debt (deficit) issued to cover US bailouts/stimulus/budget, they have already bought all the US bonds they want with their 401Ks and money market funds, etc. One thing he did not predict, but, is of concern, is the possibility of the US dollar losing it's SOLE reserve currency status. That's the topic of discussion at the G20 meeting next week. There is more than one possible outcome depending on the sequence of probably and inevitable events. Read some more threads. ---------- Karl's just a shill for Big Math. 1LumpSum Honey, where's the AK ? Tyler Durden My Ford focus can get me from point A to point B just as good Tigger's Cadillac. And my back door window is not broken. Mliu
2009-03-29 18:02:06
Permalink | ||||
|
Asimov Posts: 26714 Incept: 2007-08-26
east tennessee Online
|
Quote:The pound or euro - and perhaps both - will likely be where the FX dislocation initiates if it occurs. Pardon my ignorance, what does this mean? Dislocation doesn't mean a total halt we had a minor dislocation in USD when timmy slipped up and said that he would entertain thoughts of another reserve currency -- which he immediately stomped on a few minutes later with a complete reversal, but it threw the FX market into a spasm for a little while. Quote:Foreign uptake of Treasuries will be choked off - by necessity. This is the so-called bond market dislocation, yes? How will we know when that happens? Does it occur over weeks and months, or is it something that happens in 30 seconds? What Laura said above. That is a complete dislocation. You'll know about it because the government won't have any money to spend - none. No SS, no medicare/medicade, federal funding of all kinds will dry up. It can happen in 30 seconds and the effects not be completely seen for weeks/months. If you read here, you'll know. Even the MSM won't have much choice but to go into freakout mode over that. ---------- It's justifiably immoral to try to deal in a moral fashion with an immoral entity. If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
2009-03-29 18:17:22
Permalink | ||||
|
Baldy Posts: 6555 Incept: 2008-05-16
Pittsburgh
|
Here's wha I plan to do (and others who want to see discussions about it may want to- I am going to do it myself cause I dont presume to know much more than I did a year ago- I know a lot more, but I know how much I don't know too) hit "search' here for "posts made by" and enter "genesis" and at same time "message contains" and enter "dislocation" - if necessary I will repeat using date variables...
---------- FY2011 Budget - Hist'l Tables (PDF 2.0 MB) http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2011/assets/hist.pdf 1996-2011 budgets: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/browse.html
2009-03-29 18:29:14
Permalink | ||||
|
Murf Posts: 2813 Incept: 2007-08-28
the surf
|
Sobering quarterly Ticker, Karl. Your last line defines where we now stand: "We can do this the hard way or we can do this the catastrophic way...." A revolution that completely redefines how our federal government functions is inevitable in my opinion. That must include a complete flush of the present cast of characters and the city itself. All money must come out of politics, both in high salaries and in lobbying and especially in campaign conduct. Washington D.C. has become the looney bin of a sick and insane culture and a complete sc**** of the city may be necessary. The pitiful truth that a simple freeze of federal spending (as Reagan suggested) would have brought the deficit under control now seems laughably easy. That we didn't do that in the 80s (or even 90s) proves how twisted the culture in D.C. is and how, as a political class, they have chosen immediate selfish gratification and power worship over long term stability for the greater good. Since Obama (so far) shows no intention of leading the rats out of the city and over a cliff, so to speak, we should assume he himself is just another rat. The sleeping giant that is the "average American taxpayer" is being awakened by the stench of these vermin and will soon willingly undertake the unpleasant task of putting his/her heavy foot on the neck of the rat. What I'm not clear about is which way would such a revolution be - the hard way or the catastrophic? ---------- The recovery up is losing steam
2009-03-29 18:30:42
Permalink | ||||
|
Les Posts: 36 Incept: 2009-01-11
|
Hanlon's Razor says we should not ascribe to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. Assuming this it's easy to believe that Obama is just a rube who's letting Geithner funnel tax-payer dollars to his old Wall-Street buddies to make-back the money they lost buying worthless securities because he just flat doesn't know better.. ..but there's another theory floating around, and as the apparent stupidity gets more and more consistent I'm starting to wonder, that Obama is Deliberately attempting to sabotage the economic recovery. The theory goes that Obama is trying to game the system toward the worst possible outcome (though he may under-estimate what 'worst case' actually is) so in the end he can go... "But I tried Everything! I tried working with the private sector and it didn't work. Obviously Capitalism is Defunct and our only choice is full and total Socialism." Given how radical Obama's past associates were It's getting harder and harder for me to discount this possibility.
2009-03-29 18:32:19
Permalink | ||||
| Top | Forum Top | Login | Control Panel | Logout |
| Showing Page 1 of 5 | First | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Last |