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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2007/....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-09-22 14:32:52
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Architect Posts: 780 Incept: 2007-07-11 
london UK
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How do you rate the chances of turning the rate around? I know that you have to try even if you know that it's a fairly hopeless proposition. I've done the same in other circumstances myself.. matter of personal pride if nothing else.
2007-09-22 15:18:38
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Odds? Depends. Ben certainly had certain outcomes in mind from his decision. He didn't get those outcomes. That we now know. Remember that neither he nor any of the other pundits (Kudlow and his merry band of former Fed Governors, etc) predicted what would happen - in fact, they all predicted the opposite. This puts him in the position to be able to reverse the decision, but he needs cover, because otherwise he looks like a lunatic. This is the precise situation where political pressure works; you give someone cover for what they need to do and want to do, and they will. If 100,000 faxes and phone calls hit Congress and Bush? The odds are near 100%. If 10 faxes and phone calls hit Congress and Bush? Zero, until and unless he is FORCED by exogenous events (e.g. a total dollar collapse) at which point it won't matter; the damage will be done. So - how many people can we get to get off their ass? ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me Last modified:
2007-09-22 15:35:13 by genesis
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Architect Posts: 780 Incept: 2007-07-11
london UK
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100,000... Great country, the USA. Last time I tried it in the UK I was part of a group of 300,000 and it didn't do a thing.
2007-09-22 15:43:36
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Oh believe me, we just killed an immigration bill over here that was a "near-certain pass" at the last moment. Flood some switchboards and empty a few fax machine's paper trays and those folks sit right up and take notice. If they get 10 phone calls they write it off as a bunch of kooks. When they get 1,000 they start to pay attention. At some point - usually when the count exceeds their margin of victory in the last election - they get worried. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-09-22 15:45:14
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Murf Posts: 2814 Incept: 2007-08-28
the surf Online
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Gen, Thanks for a passionate and informative ticker - and for all your effort. I'll be writing my representatives tonight and using your bullet points as ammunition.
---------- The recovery up is losing steam
2007-09-22 15:46:36
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Architect Posts: 780 Incept: 2007-07-11
london UK
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What kind of timescale? It will roach PMs if you succeed
2007-09-22 15:48:16
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Heh I'd like it to happen tomorrow. And would it "roach" PMs? Not necessarily. It would cause them to go move downward, but "roach"? Define "roach"? ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-09-22 15:50:28
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Architect Posts: 780 Incept: 2007-07-11
london UK
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Gold at 60, Silver at 9
2007-09-22 15:54:06
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Not a snowball's chance in hell you get that sort of price movement in either with a reversal of the rate cut. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-09-22 15:55:34
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Architect Posts: 780 Incept: 2007-07-11
london UK
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Remember that PM's are being bought around the planet as an inflation/ dollar hedge. If BB reversed the cut .. and for dramatic effect added a further 0.25% the dollar would fly
2007-09-22 15:59:50
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Justinjacob Posts: 812 Incept: 2007-07-07 
NEW JERSEY
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Let me play the Devils' Advocate here for a minute. You want the FED to admit that they're wrong? Not a snowball's chance in hell. You think a couple thousand letter's will make a difference in changing the FED's mind? Not a snowball's chance in hell. We're not talking about saving someone from death row here, we're talking about our country's monetary policy. Even if you got 25 million letter's, this will become an exercise in futility...Sad but true. Immigration was something that is simple to understand and there was a real grassroots effort by Republican Talk shows hosts like Rush, Levin and Hannity who collectively have over 25 million listeners. Unless, you recruit them, all you'll have to show for the time spent faxing the letters is a copy of said letter. P.S. Don't kill the messenger.... ---------- San Francisco, the cesspool of the world and fudgepackers paradise!
2007-09-22 16:28:17
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Fafhrd Posts: 571 Incept: 2007-07-17
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Quote:P.S. Don't kill the messenger.... Isn't that precisely what you're doing? ---------- The structure of society is far more fragile than most believe. To set too much faith in its resilience is to know a moment of pristine astonishment at the instant of its utter collapse- before the wolves close in. -Kruppe of Darujhistan
2007-09-22 16:40:08
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Matt Posts: 3820 Incept: 2007-06-26
Bothell, WA
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I think instead of putting pressure on the FED to reverse the pressure would be increased on other central banks to cut along with the US.
---------- "Market players should be buying things even though they are overvalued, Cramer advised. Although this may seem irresponsible, traditional market thinking is not going to get people anywhere right now."
2007-09-22 16:41:21
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Greyswan Posts: 170 Incept: 2007-07-21 NY and Santa Fe
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Who is in charge of supervising accounting principles and practices? Whoever this is, they must look the other way and not fear to be brought to justice for the fraud that they commit. How can these mark to model evaluations of financially engineered tools still exist? Who, better than the market can price the current value of an asset? Let the market price the assets, not rating agencies noodling out of date data through their models in the interest of their benevolent clients. If there is no market respectively bid for any kind of financial paper in a month or so, you have to lower the book value respectively write it off. This is a joke in times past Enron and SOX.
2007-09-22 16:54:54
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Widgeon Posts: 6526 Incept: 2007-08-30
OK Online
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There is NO WAY - that Ben et al. "made a mistake" and didn't know what they were doing. It is not as if this $ and oil effect was hidden under 20 layers of fine detail; it was laying there right on top of the table - it could not have been "missed." NO WAY - ZERO PROBABILITY. Watch their actions, don't listen to their words. JMHO.
2007-09-22 17:15:17
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Asimov Posts: 26714 Incept: 2007-08-26
east tennessee
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WONDERFUL writeup. I'll be passing it on.
---------- It's justifiably immoral to try to deal in a moral fashion with an immoral entity. If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
2007-09-22 17:21:22
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Nightowl Posts: 2279 Incept: 2007-06-26
On a 45 for 18
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I have to agree with Matt here. This was what was happening in Jackson Hole, Bens trip to Germany. There will be a global concerted effort at lowering interest rates. The US has led the way. Other countries will follow because they depend on our consumptiveness. However, I am getting the word out and it is worth a try. Anybody know of a non-profit org that might be interested in spear-heading this effort or perhaps setting up a petition?
2007-09-22 17:23:14
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Architect Posts: 780 Incept: 2007-07-11
london UK
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Widge I'm a great believer in the **** up theory of history. Mix huge power with hubris and a corrupt populist retard in overall charge and the law of unintended consequences runs amock. Everyone convinces themself that it's going to be OK. I bet that they still do. Of course it will be easier when the EU and the UK join the party....
2007-09-22 17:32:19
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Widgeon Posts: 6526 Incept: 2007-08-30
OK Online
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Lowering rates world-wide will drive the carry-trade away. That too is needed for the prop-job. Throughout this year, banks around the world have been raising rates. They weren't doing that to get talked out of it at a weekend bbq in Wyoming (well maybe eexcept for the UK). Saudi Arabia didn't go along. Really please, the notion that the rest of the world's banks are going to cut rates to continue to support the US - the sand has run through the glass on that one; that's what they've been doing for several years now ... I think they are done. Really, looking at all things together, it is clear that they have collectively said "Enough."
2007-09-22 17:32:50
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Waterfall Posts: 49 Incept: 2007-06-29
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Does anyone have any suggestions on buying options on commodities basket? Not really gold and siver, but more cotton, wheat, corn, sugar, etc. It would seem that if there is going to be inflation, I should adjust my investment strategy and protect myself just incase the market stays bloated for a significant period of time.
2007-09-22 17:39:05
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Pd Posts: 1813 Incept: 2007-07-24
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I read a post on another blog from a woman who runs a small manufacturing company in the US. Her overseas suppliers are now telling her that she must request a new pricing quote every couple of days (because of the movement in the dollar).
2007-09-22 18:57:33
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Chameleon Posts: 570 Incept: 2007-09-11
USA Banned
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Genesis wrote: "Ben certainly had certain outcomes in mind from his decision." I'm an idiot, what were the outcomes he had in mind? I missed that part. Waterfall and others, Is there an ETF that contains consumer commodities like is mentioned above, cotton, wheat, corn, sugar, marijuana, tabacco, etc... Seems like a no brainer, but I am an idiot... Thanks in advance....SC
2007-09-22 19:06:37
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Shoobedoowa Posts: 1321 Incept: 2007-06-27
Western Canada
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Waterfall and Cham, under "commodities". DBA is the only ETF I am aware of. On topic, I think that Bernanke and Paulson's globetrotting of late is a sign that the other CB's have been waffling. More tin-foily, what is the chance that Bush may need to display his military might (just a friendly reminder) via some sort of show? Such a show would be some kind of limited action in Iran. If he does, and he goofs it up, it would have an adverse effect.
2007-09-22 19:17:55
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Chameleon Posts: 570 Incept: 2007-09-11
USA Banned
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shooob, thx, I'll look at it... anybody know the answer to my other question?????? two posts above.
2007-09-22 19:32:17
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