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| User Info | Fiscal Cat 5 Hurricane Warning in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26 
Royal Flush! 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/622-Fi....
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-10-22 08:12:52
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Architect Posts: 770 Incept: 2007-07-11 
london UK
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Depression and the collapse of currency value at the same time?
2008-10-22 08:22:18
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Sloonie Posts: 401 Incept: 2008-04-16
waaaaay up North
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spell alert Those in the media who are chucking at the folks stockpiling beans and rice should be chuckling. Another great one, and thank you, KD. Last modified:
2008-10-22 08:26:02 by sloonie
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Emdeplam Posts: 1385 Incept: 2008-01-10
Germany
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Awesome...very clearly stated for the rest of us! Gen, if we see dislocation in T's, does that change your thoughts on a 'safe-haven?' ...would the Yen or Japanese bonds be better versus US or German bonds or bank deposits? ---------- "However, this is like eating your mating-age females of a species - as you eat them it doesn't look all that bad at the time" - Karl Blah blah blah blah - Bezzle 2008-10-22 08:26:31
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Tesla Posts: 7276 Incept: 2008-04-03 
Delaware
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Quote:We may be literally days away from a second, far more serious credit and equity market dislocation, this time originating outside the United States. Can you elaborate on this ? Is it defaulting countries like Ieland, Hungary, etc, or something else ? ---------- "Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." Samuel Adams I'd rather die on my feet than live on my knees. - Emiliano Zapata 2008-10-22 08:28:54
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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No Emd, this second round will not originate here. It is going to originate either in Asia or Europe, and everyone will get smashed. Europe and Asia are both insanely vulnerable, with Europe being in SERIOUS trouble due to their irrational and in fact criminal leverage ratios in their banking systems. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-10-22 08:30:11
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Txteamtech Posts: 82 Incept: 2008-02-15
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Karl, all I can say is: God I hope you are wrong.
2008-10-22 08:41:29
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Fortune Posts: 1385 Incept: 2008-04-21 A deep dark place...scary
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So considering what I have been hearing from Obama and McCain, I find it doubtful that we're about to cut spending by 50%. Slight understatement. Having said that, then what? A Tsunami of dollars to flood the world attempting to bail out the dollar short squeeze as this is making every dollar denominating debt increasingly more expensive, especially for large debtor nations. From the ashes, does the Phoenix, a new monetary system take flight?
---------- It's a toss up. It is the Rule of Law that transforms assets into money: Martin Armstrong Math IS: Karl Denninger Legitimate questions deserve answers: Janet Tavakoli 2008-10-22 08:46:33
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Ludanjack Posts: 1288 Incept: 2007-07-29
Ft. Lauderdale
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I'm scared...really.
---------- "This is only something that can be fixed after we kill all the players that carry the virus, because the virus only dies when the host is dead. The hosts are the sick financial institutions being run by crooked executives, regulated by incompetent regulators, appointed by blissfully ignorant politicians and at the end 2008-10-22 08:49:25
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Krisb Posts: 156 Incept: 2008-05-04
Vancouver BC. Canada
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Karl, Is it possible that authorities are manipulating credit markets to instill confidence?
2008-10-22 08:56:25
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Casperghost Posts: 255 Incept: 2008-02-20
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Gerat ticker. The entire way through it I was thinking to myself "but they will never do it". You summed up those thoughts perfectly in the closing sentence. Heaven help us for they have destroyed us all. 2008-10-22 09:00:01
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Pacifltd Posts: 99 Incept: 2007-07-24
Miami FL
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KD, I have screamed at all our reps till I am blue in the face that mal-investment in insolvent institutions is a waste of our precious capital and that new banks with gov seed money would be a much better alternative..........5-10 new, clean banks would be a confidence booster and kickstart private sector lending renewal as opposed to the crowding out of the private sector and other unintended consequences that have occured from all of the failed rescue/bailout attempts....I think once a couple more lashings are dished out by the credit or equity market that some important ears might be better able to listen....I pray that there is still time & thanks to you for your efforts.
2008-10-22 09:23:05
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Thoreau Posts: 387 Incept: 2007-08-30
Walden's Pond, Concord Mass
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so the big question is...will they default or will they print?
2008-10-22 09:44:10
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Dvanderp71 Posts: 416 Incept: 2007-08-05
Amsterdam
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"We may be literally days away from a second, far more serious credit and equity market dislocation, this time originating outside the United States." This got me spooked, Karl. As in, terrified. I feel unprepared! 2008-10-22 09:47:04
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Weezie Posts: 3420 Incept: 2008-05-19
Now shuddap and take your medicine...
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Ok, and I apologize for riding the short bus this morning, but this type of stuff is completely different from what I've ever perceived, so it might take me a couple of times through to get my head around it. (I'm not good at paradigm shifts.) Would short term treasuries (ie. VMPXX) still be ok, or is everything just going behind the shed at once - dollar, ST & LT treasuries, foreign currencies, foreign bonds, gold, silver... everything except for literally food, water and medicine and a roof over your head (although allow deflation on that roof)? ---------- The government isn't ****ing Santa Claus! 2008-10-22 09:53:48
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Dvanderp71 Posts: 416 Incept: 2007-08-05
Amsterdam
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It looks like the currency markets are choosing Europe as the next victim, considering the dramatic fall in the Euro. I am long yen. Fortunately. 2008-10-22 10:12:13
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Mo Posts: 5043 Incept: 2007-06-26
Florida
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Thoreau, they both end in the same place: default. Printing might delay it, but just for a short time. 2008-10-22 10:14:01
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Bluebird Posts: 453 Incept: 2008-05-02
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Weezie, I have the very same concerns that everything gone at the same time, except for the extra canned goods.
2008-10-22 10:18:44
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R2judge Posts: 251 Incept: 2008-04-13
Burbank CA
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With requirements of 3 trillion, it sounds like a parabolic blowoff. Also, i was just looking at the daily VIX and it scares me that it looks to me as if it is consolidating, rather than declining. If my impression is correct, it seems to me that the VIX is going to jump far higher than 81. 2008-10-22 10:48:07
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Cutemloose Posts: 298 Incept: 2008-02-12
Southern England
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If the equity market colapses, will there be a flight into treasuries.. is this how they will create the missing demand for the gov bonds they will issue? Only thing that could go wrong is that the bond market crashes before the equity market. ---------- Disclosure: I am of the Austrian school, of Rothbardian persuasion. I believe in minimal government. Spent 5 years and possibly $1million to see if business can be run on this basis (leaderless). Good news for me is that it can, and profitably, bad news is that it only works with responsible people. 2008-10-22 10:58:35
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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No Cutem, the equity market collapses first, then everything collapses at once even further. This is what happened in the 1930s and they are on track to do exactly the same thing again. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-10-22 11:00:00
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Rtfg Posts: 1900 Incept: 2007-06-26
Bazookaville
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Great Ticker again, I have several hundred Dec/Jan TLt puts I've been scaling into that have been dunked under water after these last couple of days. Gen, ya think that's enough time?
2008-10-22 11:06:04
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Fletchjr Posts: 776 Incept: 2007-07-26
Minnesota Online
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KD, you recommend that we prepare for this dislocation. Aside from stocking up on basic essentials and being debt-free, what is one to do with financial holdings? I can't tell if FRNs are going to be priceless or worthless, or both, depending on timing. Would other currencies be of value? Maybe it not possible to predict what to do because TPTB may respond in unpredictable ways. 2008-10-22 11:11:24
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Ludwigvonmises Posts: 240 Incept: 2008-10-10
Michigan
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I remember Prechter saying a few years ago that .gov could declare a 'national emergency' ala FDR and raid everyone's 401k's/IRA's for 'the good of the country.' The money they take would be replaced with US Treasury Bonds. I used to think this was Tinfoil but now I'm not so sure. What do you think of this possibility Karl?
---------- Quote:
2008-10-22 11:15:25
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Mo Posts: 5043 Incept: 2007-06-26
Florida
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Quote:Now sure, The Fed can start printing money like mad and buy all these Ts, making their balance sheet expand like a balloon - or a bubble. And Bernanke, yesterday in his testimony, claimed that this didn't constitute "printing money" or "inflating the money supply." They'll sell some of the T's. But most of them will go the route you just outlined, in my opinion. Sort of like the Level III assets of the banks. 2008-10-22 11:15:58
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