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| User Info | Finality Friday - Parabolic Blow Off Pending? in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 71430 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2007/....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-10-05 17:10:35
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Eternalblue Posts: 4230 Incept: 2007-08-09 
sokali
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I fully agree that this is an absolutely disastrous macro situation, but seems like half your points show that the Fed absolutely intends to inflate their way out of this entire disaster. Will they succeed? still, thanks for keeping the lights on, it's hard to find info without bull**** slants anywhere else. ---------- my miniblog; http://economicpsychosis.blogspot.com/
2007-10-05 17:36:13
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Genesis Posts: 71430 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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They CAN'T OS. We will instead DESTROY the middle class and America's competitiveness - immediately. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-10-05 17:41:56
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Guydaley Posts: 10915 Incept: 2007-07-10 
Missouri & Wyoming
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I hear ya KD. And the sheeple won't know what hit them. But they'll still wave their little flags cheering on our system of things because the corporations own the media and the media tells the sheeple what to think. Everybody needs to watch Mr. Smith goes to Washington. I didn't see that movie for the first time until about six months ago, checked it out at the library. This stuff has been going on for decades if not centuries but they keep fine tuning the manipulation and dumbing down the population so the sheeple will accept there "government medicine". Got a recession coming down the pike but Wall Street trades according to the massaged stats provided by the government and government gets reelected from donations from Wall Street. Sweet deal for everybody concerned except the sheeple which are too dumb to know whats happening to them. Damn I want a beer. ---------- 2/17/09 = Hogzilla bill was signed = THE POINT OF NO RETURN = Cheers to the Reset, LONG LIVE THE UNDERGROUND ECONOMY! STARVE the BEAST! Adopt a J6P.
2007-10-05 17:56:16
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Theone Posts: 6865 Incept: 2007-08-07 They crucified the only PERFECT one Banned
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who's the dumb ones? we see this **** going on, the sheep are long and the gov., media and others are telling them to buy,buy,buy and we are short.... Doh? looks to me like we are the dumb ones. ---------- Let me know when the DENIAL of who runs everything is over. Until then enjoy the circle jerk. I'm going fishing. State of the Union ---> http://www.mindspring.com/~lcruiser/Stat....
2007-10-05 18:00:30
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Gort Posts: 111 Incept: 2007-10-04 Chicago
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You got it! The media may not report ‘real’ inflation or question all the bull**** coming out of Wall Street and Washington; but they sure as **** will have dozens of satellite trucks parked outside O.J.’s Vegas courtroom, spend hours covering “American Idol” results and let us know about the latest cat fight on “The View”. Most Americans (and sadly Congress) don’t give two-****s about real issues, and deserve what’s coming. Who knows, maybe a bucket of cold water in our face will cause people to be more aware of the **** going on around them in the future. ---------- No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people. - H.L. Mencken
2007-10-05 18:02:52
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Isaac Posts: 535 Incept: 2007-07-27
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Quote:We have disclosure of outright fraud in analyst calls from a former "housing analyst" who now is "self-employed" and stated that her employer required her to maintain an "aggregate" rating on the sector! Does anyone have the link to this referenced article? Thanks ---------- "Diversity: a Propaganda Mechanism used discriminate against white males, flood the country with illegal aliens, and indoctrinate your child into thinking that being gay will make them a better artist" --ME!
2007-10-05 18:03:23
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Exodus Posts: 2081 Incept: 2007-08-29
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Safari 2.0.4 crashes on me consistently at 19:52 in the video. It's 20:15 so I didn't miss much... I guess... hard to know. :)
2007-10-05 18:10:40
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Architect Posts: 780 Incept: 2007-07-11
london UK
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thought I would post this here too http://www........../general78/defeat.ht....
2007-10-05 18:31:53
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Shortqqq Posts: 314 Incept: 2007-07-20
las vegas
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why are you so certain china will unpeg?
2007-10-05 19:29:11
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Ludanjack Posts: 1343 Incept: 2007-07-29
Ft. Lauderdale
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KD, Awesome ticker...I am going to save it and fax it to every senator, and congressman...I mean every! Is that OK with you? Does the federal reserve has a fax? Does Bernanke? ---------- "This is only something that can be fixed after we kill all the players that carry the virus, because the virus only dies when the host is dead. The hosts are the sick financial institutions being run by crooked executives, regulated by incompetent regulators, appointed by blissfully ignorant politicians and at the end
2007-10-05 20:11:09
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Genesis Posts: 71430 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Ludan, do it and yes the Fed does. Short, because they have to. The alternative is for them to eat the inflation which they can't do. They're trying to stop it and are losing - it just keeps accelerating instead of calming down. This is what ultimately happens when you have a pegged currency and you start exporting YOUR inflation through inappropriately low rates. You have the illusion of low inflation if you import enough from that nation - which we do - because what comes from there has no inflation component due to FX differences. We claim 'no inflation' because things like computers keep getting cheaper while food and such go up. But how many computers can you consume? You consume food every day. The balance is all out of whack - those things you only consume once in a while are stable or declining in price (e.g. a new plasma TV) while the things you consume daily (food and energy) are skyrocketing. China doesn't produce much of any of the latter for our consumption, so the peg does not help us in that regard. But - they get the inflation we are refusing to book. As they try to tighten up the cost of money there we pump more there and it establishes a feedback loop - we get more and more from them and the more we buy the more inflation we export. As our economy slows we drop rates to stimulate consumption but that just makes it worse on their end. Ultimately their choices are to depeg or suffer through double-digit inflation rates which destroys THEIR working class. They can't allow wage inflation to get going or the competitiveness of their exports disappears. Ultimately they have no choice but to drop the peg. When they do suddenly the price of everything they export goes skyrocketing higher here. This is very bad for us and we drop consumption of their goods which is also bad for them. The theory is that its worse for them than us, so they will "eat" our **** sandwich. The truth is that they've seen this coming and have been setting up conduits for their products to other nations, specifically the EU, which is not pegged. They now export more to other nations than to us - therefore, while a 20 or 30% drop in our demand would hurt them, it would actually cool their economy and solve their inflation and out-of-control GDP problem at the same time, plus they'd be getting paid MORE for their exports to us. This is a very bad bet for us to take on them not being able to de-peg. They not only can at this point but in the not-so-distant future they will be forced to. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me Last modified:
2007-10-05 21:08:07 by genesis
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Asianbull Posts: 2184 Incept: 2007-09-03
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Interesting points over the past few days: GS and GOOG both struggled today. Volume was below average A lot of head and shoulder patterns in the last 1 hour that broke hard. Credit insurers(ABK,FNM,FRE,etc) were relativel weak ABX indices hit new lows NIHD a big mo stock is on the verge of breaking down hard. LatAm telecom carrier Lot of ETFs stopped at the 200 day(XLF, transports) EEM and FXI failed to close on a new high. XOI (oil index) was very weak today. Oil service closed down BA was very weak today--yet another poster child of this rally. Mozillo just so happens to be dumping most of his stock. It is very common for wedges to have a throwover and then collapse. Interesting how Larry Fink(Blackrock), Martin Feldstein(NBER), Carl Ichan, Maury Harris(UBS), Wilbur Ross, Wayne Angell are all very very cautious on the economy over the last few days. A break in TLT here will likely be a complete crack. The weakness in the USD was very pronounced despite higher interest rates. The last 1/2 hour of trading is where the pros trade and the market got nailed then. I think we are on the verge of major change in a number of markets. I think bond markets(corporate and govt debt) around the world are offically toast. This is going to pressure equities and commodities around the world. Gold is going to appreciate in all currencies, but especially against the dollar. CRASH ALERT!! ---------- The root cause of all the world's problems is inflation. The only sound money in the world is commodities. Last modified:
2007-10-05 22:38:31 by asianbull
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Jinxx0r Posts: 2064 Incept: 2007-08-10
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I have a question about this:Quote:Indeed, I was the one buying more memory as it grew and more CPU to compute it so I was as plugged-in as one could be - and so was EVERY OTHER MAJOR INTERNET COMPANY. if you could see traffic data, and other knew it too, why would this be illegal to trade on? You're analyzing the data (like today), you see a trend (like today), others can see the same data (like today). Were you considered an insider to these other companies? I'm just curious why this would be been illegal if you were drawing conclusions based on traffic data from 3rd parties. TIA. ---------- "Americans grew tired of being thought of as dumb by the rest of the world, so in 2008, they went to the polls and removed all doubt" ~~ unknown http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2x2W12A8Qow http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pXfHLUlZf4
2007-10-05 22:29:30
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Genesis Posts: 71430 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Quote:if you could see traffic data, and other knew it too, why would this be illegal to trade on? You're analyzing the data (like today), you see a trend (like today), others can see the same data (like today). Were you considered an insider to these other companies? I'm just curious why this would be been illegal if you were drawing conclusions based on traffic data from 3rd parties. Well it was material and it was undisclosed to the public. There were a number of pieces of data like this that I had that were not "generally public information" and stuff like that was in many cases being "talked" exactly the opposite! That's pretty much THE definition of "material inside information." I was extremely careful when I ran MCSNet, and in general if there was any question about whether I "could or couldn't" a quick ring to corporate counsel was the order of the day. Lots of times I got one of those "weeeeeelllll" sort of answers - that's fine, no thanks! ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-10-05 22:37:36
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Jinxx0r Posts: 2064 Incept: 2007-08-10
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ahhh, I see. I didn't realize that the data you were viewing was undisclosed to the public. Thank you for the response.
---------- "Americans grew tired of being thought of as dumb by the rest of the world, so in 2008, they went to the polls and removed all doubt" ~~ unknown http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2x2W12A8Qow http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pXfHLUlZf4
2007-10-05 22:43:09
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Eternalblue Posts: 4230 Incept: 2007-08-09
sokali
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If this is still mostly the same bull**** that happened in during the dotcom, why has nothing changed? That wasn't even ten years ago. ---------- my miniblog; http://economicpsychosis.blogspot.com/
2007-10-05 22:44:50
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Genesis Posts: 71430 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Quote:If this is still mostly the same bull**** that happened in during the dotcom, why has nothing changed? That wasn't even ten years ago. Its very simple - where are the cops? The robbers will come back and rob the bank vault time after time until the cops show up and start arresting people. Do I have any reason to believe this will end? After ten years of this **** back-to-back with no real changes? No. Sarbox was decried by "Corporate America" as "unreasonable regulation" but at the time I said "that's a good start" and it still is just a good start. In fact it has done NOTHING to curb the abuses. Nothing. We keep pulling the safeties and pull a bunch of **** like the 23A exemption letters and yet banks own affiliates that trade, then wonder when they cheat? Oh c'mon. Bottom line - in the long run it won't matter to prices in the market, in the short term it does. Trade what you got but don't ever expect people to go to jail for the rumors and outright fraud - because history says they won't. There were thousands that should have been jailed after the 2000 tech wreck. The game-playing with "analysts" and IPOs were just the most blatant of the scams. And let me be clear - they all were scams - the very definition of fraud is intentional deceit for monetary gain! How many of these people were prosecuted? A handful. How many were Investment Banks that were at the center of most of this ****? Zero. Any questions? ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-10-05 22:52:16
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Shortqqq Posts: 314 Incept: 2007-07-20
las vegas
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kd, i agree with us exporting our inflation but if china allows a floating currency want that inflate the renminbi to the point where labor is no longer cheap and factorys can simply move to other countries for cheap labor. it appears china is also in a trick box. do they want inflation or inflated currency
2007-10-05 23:35:02
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Genesis Posts: 71430 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Quote:kd, i agree with us exporting our inflation but if china allows a floating currency want that inflate the renminbi to the point where labor is no longer cheap and factorys can simply move to other countries for cheap labor. To some small extent, but not to a large degree. Where are you going to move the factories TO? We're quickly running out of places with a workforce that is usable in this fashion yet has the socio-political structure that is conducive to what China does. People say "oh but they're communists!" - to which I say "exactly!" That's precisely the point. They are and they're pretty effective too at it - at least for the time being. Ultimately China will be forced to de-peg. Remember, they're already trading as much with the EU zone as us - and they're not pegged to them. It didn't help our case that we sold them a bunch of worthless CDOs too 'yanno..... ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-10-05 23:48:06
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Shoobedoowa Posts: 1321 Incept: 2007-06-27
Western Canada
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I agree that China will continue to loosen the peg more and more, faster and faster, but a noticeable effect may take quite a while. Some recent statistics off of the top of my head (so do not take them as balls-on accurate): 40% of China's GDP is dependent on it's export markets. 60% is domestic. 25% of China's exports go to the U.S. If China suffers a drop in exports to the U.S. (25% of their export market) or to the U.S. and Europe (total 50%), it will hurt their growth, but will not "stop them in their tracks". China is not positioined to instantly grow their domestic economy to be totally self sufficient, however, I do not believe that they will be instantly shut down quite as soundly as most assume. A halt in growth will take some time.
2007-10-06 00:05:21
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Shoobedoowa Posts: 1321 Incept: 2007-06-27
Western Canada
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As for getting wider attention, I would suggest focusing on independent news services (local papers, TV news, etc.), rather than politicians. Freedom of the Press????? This is what the founding fathers envisioned as a mechanism to keep the powers that be in check. Right.......Who owns the media? Do you think their is any independence? Do you think the media works in the best interest of the citizens or the nation......or do you think they are working for large multi-nationals and the government? I did some quick searches, and here's some hints: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/.... http://www.freepress.net/ownership/chart.... http://www.nowfoundation.org/issues/comm.... http://www.thenation.com/special/bigten..... I remember reading "America the Book - Democracy in Action" a few years ago. It was very entertaining. Even if you don't like Jon Stewart and his crowd, I highly reccommend it for the comedy content alone. It had some intersting views including a chapter on who the media really works for. Just some thoughts...........
2007-10-06 00:11:43
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