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Genesis Posts: 66462 Incept: 2007-06-26 
Royal Flush! 
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http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archi....
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-07-12 23:11:14
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Rad Posts: 375 Incept: 2007-08-27 
The Yoga Mecca
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Gen wrote..So here we sit with two firms that are running with leverage ratios that make a Hedge Fund look like a convocation of the Girl Scouts.  Unexpected treat to read albeit depressing options to contemplate. ---------- Last modified:
2008-07-12 23:34:48 by rad
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Crbianfool Posts: 190 Incept: 2007-07-18 
virginia
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Fascinating treatise on the failures of every level of leadership (if that's what you want to call them) of this nation that things have reached this point. To even be seriously considering some of the possible actions mentioned in tonight's ticker seems almost dream-like. I am emailing a copy of this ticker to everyone I know, and perhaps finally they will begin to understand the depth of the problems we face rather than calling me a pessimist and ignoring the issue. Thanks for the weekend update. while the message is frightful to consider it seems more important than ever to try and educate the non-believers and force our elected reps. to at least confront the issues at hand while there is still a chance to act.
---------- "I give up. Let me know when you stop searching for The Holy Grail." Wise & Sagelike Advice From Genesis 2008-07-12 23:58:02
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Gates Posts: 1886 Incept: 2008-01-29
Scottsdale
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****! 90%+ of the GD U.S. population has NO idea of what is REALLY happening to our economy as of RIGHT NOW! How the HELL are we supposed to position ourselves and loved ones? im not talking Mad Max, im talking REALITY! I have guns-LOTS of guns and ammo- I have physical gold and silver but so the **** what! when 90% of the people are ****ed you better have a Deeeeep bunker on a desolate pc of land that NOBODY knows about. Lets hope - even if it's delusional- that this too shall pass. ---------- "Ein Ende mitt Schreck ist besser als ein Schreck ohne Ende." - Hans-Wilhelm Voeller 2008-07-12 23:58:55
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Rt Posts: 25 Incept: 2007-11-29
SoCal
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Karl I forward your ticker to Glenn Beck. I live in California and have signed all of the petitions but have not received a response from are wonderful Senators or my congressman but this time I am going to ask for a response. Here's hoping somebody will wake up 2008-07-13 00:18:15
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Wthef Posts: 601 Incept: 2008-02-25
philadelphia
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simply unbelievable...thats it..your a genius, i would love to know how you came to know and understand all of this. you truely have a gift
---------- "I had to look at her today and sat there staring at her bronze naked body laying in the sun, a flaming red candle in her hand she took me in. Her figure consumed me 36-32-34 and said "take me" I stumbled forward as I engaged her stare and she pulled me down towards her. I ripped off my shirt and dropped my pants, we f 2008-07-13 00:25:12
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Bozonian Posts: 13051 Incept: 2007-09-01
PFT - Pure F'n Tin
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Karl, there is something we can do, without needed huge agreement, a slowdown protest. Wherever you drive, go really slow. One person can bring an entire city to a crawl! We need a motto for a sticker so that people can make the connection why we are going slow. Talk about the slowdown strike on youtube, have it be a ribbon of some sort! Yeah, a black ribbon! There has to be a youtube series and a website so people can make the connection between the "black ribbon" and what is being protested. ---------- If deficits don't matter, then the Federal Government can borrow the money it needs and stop taxing the citizens. Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice. 2008-07-13 00:34:55
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Tjandthebear Posts: 313 Incept: 2008-03-18 Los Angeles, CA
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Excellent post as usual. Can't say this is any kind of surprise, of course, but it's definitely a sad statement that you can absolutely rely on the politicians to do exactly the wrong thing and people to ignorantly allow them to do it. p.s.: I find the notion of 8% mortgages post-GSE *extremely* optimistic. 2008-07-13 01:57:15
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Capeman Posts: 2054 Incept: 2007-07-12
San Diego
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Great ticker Karl! You really should be getting offers to work for or run economic think-tanks if you haven't already.
---------- "I believe all God's creatures have a soul... except bears, bears are Godless killing machines!" - Steven Colbert Last modified:
2008-07-13 02:44:56 by capeman
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Murf Posts: 2360 Incept: 2007-08-28
the surf
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Your plea is so effective it's almost heartbreaking knowing 10 million dumbf*cks won't know what hit 'em.
---------- ...comedic mayhem ensues... 2008-07-13 03:00:03
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Bluntfacts Posts: 693 Incept: 2007-10-09 Las Vegas, Nevada
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7/12/08 Now that is the kind of writing that should be eligible for the Nobel Prize in Economics if there is such a thing. At a minimum, Karl can at least write a compelling book about what will be the greatest financial mishap this nation has ever experienced. But as usual, I have to be blunt and unfortunately deliver the facts. What is in progress cannot be stopped. Congress may pull off their little bill, but I think everyone looking at the big picture (Trillions) is not impressed by a some minor bill in Billions. And that is it. No other official plan is pending. Because only choice 5 will happen. To quote Karl (emphasis removed): "The government can decide to do nothing. If Fannie and Freddie are unable to fund, they go under. Period. This would produce a monstrous dislocation in the housing market, but it would not cut off all mortgages. It would, however, have a fairly dramatic impact on funding costs, probably adding 300 basis points to the cost of a mortgage - in other words, 30 year money would immediately go to about 9%. However, other forms of credit would be largely unaffected, including and most importantly, US Government debt." Read that last sentence carefully. Connect the dots. Stand back and gaze at the completed picture. I hope everyone is seeing the same conclusion. Anyway to the author Karl, outstanding effort; and I don't say that lightly. You really have nailed it; and your hope for change is quite refreshing. Unfortunately, said change will not happen. ---------- "Will someone come on TV and tell the truth about how bad it is". Jim Cramer August 2007. "We can change the focus to a soft blur; or sharpen it to crystal clarity" The Outer Limits 1964. 2008-07-13 04:48:47
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Spiritoftruth Posts: 570 Incept: 2008-02-25 New England Suspended
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Amen! When's the sit-in? Cause I'm there! ---------- “This is a revolution, damn it! We have to offend somebody!” - John Adams “All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.” - Edmund Burke “Even if you are a minority of one, the truth is the truth.” - Mohandas Gandhi “Whatever is coweree up will be uncovered and every secret will Last modified:
2008-07-13 07:38:53 by spiritoftruth
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Architect Posts: 770 Incept: 2007-07-11
london UK Online
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I think that, for once that the .gov will do what Karl suggests. There isn't any other option. Screwing the bondholders will screw the people who buy treasury debt. They just won't buy it, and will insist that all payments to them for oil and manufactured goods are in currencies other than USDs or in gold. The Dollar will tank..
2008-07-13 08:16:01
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Prospektor Posts: 2448 Incept: 2007-07-19
Stockholm, Sweden
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Great ticker. Thanks Karl.
---------- Mongo like 2008-07-13 08:25:40
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Jjh0507 Posts: 189 Incept: 2007-08-03 PA
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This is a misallocation of capital for a simple reason - a house does not generate GDP. It has utility value as shelter but, unlike a machine, it generates no new GDP by being in existence Karl..... After I read this I thought to myself..... When someone buys a Mcmansion Doesnt it help GDP initially ? By buying new furntiture, TV, Pay a painter who goes out and spends his earnings ? 2008-07-13 08:40:30
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Lamarth Posts: 1164 Incept: 2008-03-15
Sydney
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I don't see them doing anything other than #4, and/or #2. The plan appears to be to delay this crisis until X, though Ben does like to get creative. X may be (listed in order from most to least rapid): The election The crisis passes The cows come home Hell freezes over The bankers gain a sense of fiscal responsibility ---------- The Government Inequality: Total Wealth before Government Intervention > Total Wealth after Government Intervention “Those who have faith and confidence in the country and its ability to come back will profit by their foresight. This has also been the case over the past half century.” - WSJ 3rd Sept 1930 2008-07-13 08:46:21
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Pabloescobar Posts: 4506 Incept: 2008-04-23
bubbleville Online
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Sadly, according to the government, Karl is wrong about the utility of a house. Don't the use an "equivalent rent" factor in their CPI figures? What do you bet they've talked about including "equivalent rent" into the GDP number too? ---------- "None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free." Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe "we don't live in a democracy; we live in a hypocrisy" Brain 2008-07-13 09:05:05
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Ribeye Posts: 22 Incept: 2008-05-04
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Im still unclear on how to protect my money. Is the money i have in a money market safe if my financial institution is safe ? Or since MM's are loaded w/Fannie and Freddie paper could i see i % loss in my money market ?? Any responses appreciated ..
2008-07-13 09:38:08
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Genesis Posts: 66462 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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MMs can lose principal. Get into a short-term treasury money market. If that loses, you need guns. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-07-13 09:41:13
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Maddymax Posts: 1328 Incept: 2008-02-26
not sure anymore
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Gen I can not thank you enough for the education you have given me over the last year. I am able to sleep at night without having my 401k and personal savings destroyed and the education you have provided. I just wish people on tv where honest instead of promoting their own agenda
---------- 10 year at 1.5 S and P 515 2008-07-13 11:17:14
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Themortgagedude Posts: 3343 Incept: 2007-12-17
saint louis
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How's this conservatorship thing work. Do they still operate and originate new mortgages under sensible guidelines and enhanced regulation. Or do they simply cease to originate and just service their existing portfolio.
---------- Since September it's just gotten colder and colder. There's less daylight now, I've noticed too. This can only mean one thing - the sun is going out. In a few more months the Earth will be a dark and lifeless ball of ice. 2008-07-13 11:27:53
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Genesis Posts: 66462 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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TMD, they are fiduciaries in this situation and can operate as they deem fit and appropriate - but you can bet they won't continue any business practices that lose money. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-07-13 11:40:57
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Fugitivekind Posts: 545 Incept: 2007-08-20
Boston
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Excellent ticker...forwarded it all over the place.
---------- There's something very strange about issuing debt to solve a problem caused by too much debt - Governor Mark Sanford (R-SC) 2008-07-13 12:14:08
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Bear Posts: 6466 Incept: 2007-07-10
SoCal, and my avatar is so ****ing small you cant see it
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Gen.....Are you now thinking the severity of this **** up will possibly get us perilously close(er) to a "Mad Max" society now ? I ask because last year you were under the impression that it would not, is this capitulation on your part ? ---------- Cause GS got all the beef.....Mliu Last modified:
2008-07-13 12:19:24 by bear
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Genesis Posts: 66462 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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No Bear. But I do think the odds of us getting a depression out of this have gone up a LOT. I was in the "20% risk" camp on that at the outset - I now think we're getting towards the more like 3 out of 4. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-07-13 12:20:04
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