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| User Info | Commercial R/E: Tick.... tick.... BOOM! in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 71406 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/1250-C....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-07-22 12:58:34
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Rbarreira Posts: 1424 Incept: 2009-05-27 Sweden Online
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Typo: This time its different.
2009-07-22 12:59:48
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Ldog Posts: 182 Incept: 2009-06-11 Online
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The losses are going to be staggering. Not quite Dot-comesque, but close.
2009-07-22 13:01:34
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Randy123 Posts: 2005 Incept: 2008-09-24 New Jersey Online
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Completely agree and I must say the part about regional banks is exactly correct. Businesses are on fumes all over the place and banks basically have their fingers crossed that they can make it. I wish these green shoots nonsense were real.
---------- Mliu is my hero. Captain melamine.
2009-07-22 13:04:08
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Otiswild Posts: 1341 Incept: 2009-03-09 
Teegeeack
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Quote:The overcapacity problem is extraordinarily severe. Regional banks are up to their necks in this paper, and its performance is becoming worse by the day. "FOR LEASE" signs have sprouted like mushrooms, and this will continue. So bypass regional banks and go directly to credit unions? ---------- It appears that the yard wolves has grown up. Are we finally finished with the colds dead winters?
2009-07-22 13:04:56
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Genesis Posts: 71406 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Yes.
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-07-22 13:05:47
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Chicagopwj Posts: 683 Incept: 2009-02-23 
Chicago
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To throw a positive.....(But, first I disclose I agree with Karl) in the end, cheap rental and leasing space with hamper inflationary pressures going forward similar to the late 90s expansion. Until then... IMO we're ****ed. ---------- How long can .gov prop the markets? My guess is not indefinitely.
2009-07-22 13:07:13
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Dji Posts: 720 Incept: 2009-04-21
Fleming Island Online
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Some of my customers could not roll there loans over and had no choice but a CU. Rates way higher than before and if economy doesn't pick up in the next year KABOOM. Time will tell, oh and in the real world there is no pump monkey Biz is getting worse by the day! ---------- What goes up Must come Down- Alan Parsons Project THE TRUTH HURTS! -Dji
2009-07-22 13:10:46
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Impetunomics Posts: 421 Incept: 2009-04-08 Houston, TX
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CRE, Credit Cards, Option ARMs Pick a poison! Is there any way this wont end as a massive cluster****? The question is, how much longer can they push ponzi, and is it possible to keep it going forever? ---------- At best. Last modified:
2009-07-22 13:13:53 by impetunomics
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Eighty6thebs Posts: 768 Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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Huge sign on a new building in Buckhead (nice part of Atlanta) says "Make an offer!". Behind this are 3 more 30+ story buildings just like it going up and they opened about 3 others like it last year within ½ a mile. The overcapacity is off the chart and new ones are still coming on-line.
---------- "Sounds to me like you guys are a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
2009-07-22 13:15:50
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Tank Posts: 313 Incept: 2007-12-14
Seattle Area Suspended
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Rberreira: it's is correct. It's a contraction for "it is": This time it is different.
---------- "A danger foreseen is half avoided." -Thomas Fuller (1608-1661)
2009-07-22 13:16:19
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Jusa****ryboy Posts: 107 Incept: 2009-06-05 Athens,AL Online
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Anyone see the auction results for the Watergate Hotel yesterday? I think it was opening at $25 million.No bids.
2009-07-22 13:21:20
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Rbarreira Posts: 1424 Incept: 2009-05-27 Sweden Online
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Tank I was listing the typo, not the correction (it's already corrected now).
2009-07-22 13:21:26
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Berkleyreindeer Posts: 560 Incept: 2008-07-22 Minneapolis , MN
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the good thing about commercial real estate is that it moves through the system faster. No waiting 6 months for a community action idiot to "save" your house. The property is either refi'd or it isn't.
---------- It'll get worse. Just wait.
2009-07-22 13:28:22
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Sarsen Posts: 158 Incept: 2007-11-28
Oregon
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The Local Daily Journal of Commerce had an article this week about CRE. The Portland Metro area has a vacancy rate of 13.5%. The two (formerly) most sought after CRE areas, Kruse Way and Sunset corridor are running 22% and 26% vacant right now. Discounts are running as high as 20% off their peak rates, BUT owners are unwilling to lower the rates more because it won't cover the nut on the underlying mortgages. Something's gotta give.
---------- Still pushing on that string to no avail.
2009-07-22 13:29:48
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Genesis Posts: 71406 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Right - what will give is the owner's cashflow and ultimately their company. They tried the same **** in the mid 90s. I waited 'em out, stuffing more and more people into a building that was about 1/2 the size of what I needed (and couldn't get more space in as it will full.) The owners eventually crack - they have to - and either restructure the note or die, but once you have your lease, who gives a ****? When the opportunity came for Two Prudential, oh boy. Our rent cost barely moved but we had something like six times the floor space and it was a MUCH higher-quality location. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me Last modified:
2009-07-22 13:32:05 by genesis
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Glock36 Posts: 327 Incept: 2009-06-03 Banned
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Austin, Texas: Half-Finished Intel Building Demolished In February 2007 This was in 2007 and for several years Intel attempted to sell the building. The city was pressuring the company to do something, so it was decided to just demolish it. Just wait until the CRE really implodes, as this building was only a precursor both figuratively and literally. ---------- Black Helicopters Are Like ****roaches, You Never Find Just One Glock36's Law: Murphy Was An Optimist When You Find Yourself In A Hole, Don't Look Out Until You Identify The Type, As It Could Be A Foxhole The Greatest Enemy Of Knowledge Is Not Ignorance, But The Illusion Of Knowledge - Dr. Hawking
2009-07-22 13:35:36
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R0h1tp Posts: 813 Incept: 2008-02-20
Austin, Texas
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A question, And I do not want to turn this into an SRS thread please. What is the best way to short regional banks? A good ETF to short or an inverse? ---------- If you’re looking for the bottom of the market there’s a special offer − buy one, you get the next one free.
2009-07-22 13:36:28
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Genesis Posts: 71406 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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IAT.
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-07-22 13:37:18
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Thumpher Posts: 20 Incept: 2009-06-04 Gainesville, Fl
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Around here they continue to buld regional bank branches. There are three under construction along my commute. Why? I'm a relative neophyte in these matters and am at a loss to explain to myself what's behind this construction.
2009-07-22 13:38:48
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Stoverny Posts: 250 Incept: 2009-02-25
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5 years ago they built a new strip mall near my home in NJ. Tenants were, I kid you not: a Circuit City, a Great Indoors, a Linens and Things, a AAA office, and a Party City. Now there is just the AAA office and the Party City. The Great Indoors store alone was MASSIVE. The other 2 were only huge. I can't imagine what the hell they are going to do with 3 empty stores of that size right next to each other. I'm sure this scenario is being played out all across the country. Too many stores, too many malls, too many chain restaurants, you name it... was all based on easy credit and a fake sense of prosperity.
2009-07-22 13:39:24
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Ldog Posts: 182 Incept: 2009-06-11 Online
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Deals were done at ridiculously low cap rates. Combine that with LTVs near par at stupid spreads to LIBOR and you get the insolvency of the entire banking system. No news to anyone here.
2009-07-22 13:41:46
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Eighty6thebs Posts: 768 Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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That video on the Intel building in Austin is sobering. Austin is one of the "hot beads" and to just destroy 7 floors already poured is amazing to me.
---------- "Sounds to me like you guys are a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
2009-07-22 13:43:55
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Dji Posts: 720 Incept: 2009-04-21
Fleming Island Online
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“As the recession’s gotten worse in the last six months or so" Straight from BB's mouth. GREEN SHOOTS are GREEN ****S. Anyone have a correct count of all the lies? ---------- What goes up Must come Down- Alan Parsons Project THE TRUTH HURTS! -Dji
2009-07-22 13:45:19
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Cjworkman Posts: 5607 Incept: 2007-08-22
Online
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How are the REIT's still levitating?
---------- Ben is going to create an equity bubble from excess liquidity that tops at 1200... and bottoms at 300. A bubble inside of bearish economic conditions, so that it never reaches new market highs and crashes far below the lows. - me
2009-07-22 13:49:37
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