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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/1649-C....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-11-20 12:15:35
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Willy2 Posts: 91 Incept: 2009-05-10 Netherlands
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There COULD be a very simple reason: The difference in interest rates between e.g. Europe and the US. In the US rates are close to zero while in Europe they are at 1%. (Foreign ??) Pensionfunds starting to sell their US assets ??? Encouraged by the falling USD ??? And ultra low interest rates ??? Greetings from Europe, Willy2 Last modified:
2009-11-20 12:42:45 by willy2
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Maxi Posts: 83 Incept: 2009-10-13 Lander, WY
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I think that Options Expiration has a lot to do with it.
2009-11-20 12:35:48
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Lucky1 Posts: 64 Incept: 2009-08-05 
Pittsburgh
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Hmmm - and while Oil is in the red due to ramping dollar - gold is still green today.
---------- "Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a law-breaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy." -USSC Justice Louis D. Brandeis: Dissenting Opinion in "Olmstead v. United States" (1928)
2009-11-20 12:50:12
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Lucky, if the correlation breaks and you're long metals I hope you've protected that position - if you haven't, well, look at last fall's Silver chart.
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-11-20 12:53:22
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Lucky1 Posts: 64 Incept: 2009-08-05
Pittsburgh
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I have scaled back on my paper gold - GLD - thought about some puts with the latest ramp up...have not done it. Thinking instead of dumping GLD - have you read any of the speculation of the discovery of gold bars being discovered as gold-plated tungsten instead? Anecdotes of some very busy assayers these days.
---------- "Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a law-breaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy." -USSC Justice Louis D. Brandeis: Dissenting Opinion in "Olmstead v. United States" (1928)
2009-11-20 12:58:56
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Ken_in_va Posts: 12 Incept: 2009-08-13 
Virginia
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Is it good to be short right now or is it too unpredictable to be in anything at all?
2009-11-20 13:09:27
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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You can day/short-term trade at any time. Longer-term positions either way remain dangerous. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-11-20 13:10:51
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Arkady Posts: 123 Incept: 2009-10-19
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Are you looking at a possible dent in the carry traders? Equity markets are already teetering on the edge of collapse given their vapor run, this entire rally is nothing short of a miracle. If the dollar surges here, this could be catastrophic. But only a crisis can spook the carry traders here...
2009-11-20 13:39:27
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Jjm Posts: 153 Incept: 2009-11-10
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This may mean nothing at all, but over the last couple of days several of my foreign customers have requested expedited delivery on their orders. These orders are denominated in USD, so they pay whatever the exchange rate happens to be on the day the order ships. Maybe they see an adverse exchange rate in their future?
---------- "In a mania, all investments are at the mercy of the greater fool. As in: if you can’t find one, you’re it." -- Alex Daley
2009-11-20 13:58:36
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Migwela Posts: 113 Incept: 2008-01-28
Georgia
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Today....no one is selling, but much worse in my opinion - NO ONE IS BUYING. The buyers from Aug to here were mostly carry bids. Now that the carry is sideways...I think we are now experiencing how many organic buyers there are....very few. So, the question is, what happens when people start to figure out that it may be time to exit?
2009-11-20 14:04:08
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Wendya Posts: 26 Incept: 2009-06-02
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Zero Hedge: Potential Ukrainian Default Spooking Markets Are the dominoes about to start falling? From Morgan Stanley's London desk: Ukrainian Railway defaulted on a Barclays bond. They have another, government guaranteed obligation with DB. If DB accelerates the payment & IF it is then not paid, it will count as a government default. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/potenti.... ... Seems to be a week old rumor. Sorry for over-reacting. Last modified:
2009-11-20 19:08:39 by wendya
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Chris92346 Posts: 647 Incept: 2009-03-25
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Is there any way that they can protect the dollar and not crush equities?
2009-11-20 21:09:38
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Pacrim888 Posts: 54 Incept: 2007-12-08
Hong Kong, Shanghai
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If Ukraine defaults (or partially defaults), no gaz for Europe (Gaz pipeline issue) from Russia for a while ==> higher tensions between EU and Russia. May lead to a weaker Euro... stronger US$
2009-11-20 21:57:24
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Raingod Posts: 1067 Incept: 2008-08-29
Tastes Like Chicken
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Any ideas on how the light volume next week should affect things? It may give GS's magic HFT computers more room to play, but on the other hand, there may be fewer suckers around for GS to sell to. There was an interesting thread on Arfcom in the last couple of days, by someone who is apparently an independent money manager (I think his board name is "shooter42"), saying "time to get out!". Google's not finding it, though. ---------- I have even intermittenter access than I did over the summer. No idea when I can check in.
2009-11-20 22:57:11
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Raingod Posts: 1067 Incept: 2008-08-29
Tastes Like Chicken
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Pacrim888 wrote..If Ukraine defaults (or partially defaults), no gaz for Europe (Gaz pipeline issue) from Russia for a while ==> higher tensions between EU and Russia. The pipeline is being filled by Russia, so I don't see how gas pipeline problems follow from Ukraine defaulting on bond payments. A bond default doesn't necessarily mean that Ukraine is also defaulting on its gas/energy payments to Russia; in fact, just like all the "homeowners" who have stopped paying their mortgages and now have money to buy other things, defaulting on their railway bonds could free up money with which Ukraine could buy energy supplies. Russia could always get into another ****ing match with Ukraine over gas delivery prices, but supposedly they straightened that out last year. ---------- I have even intermittenter access than I did over the summer. No idea when I can check in.
2009-11-20 23:01:43
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Amgrace Posts: 1304 Incept: 2008-02-15
New Castle, PA 16101
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Here is a great article from Wall Street Examiner that gives you perspective of the $ / Stock correlation over time. http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com.... Key Quote: "By this chart you should see that the stock market was quite oversold in the real dollars and the dollar decline and stock rally is the most efficient way to return from the oversold condition. However you should not try to make predictions based on that, the stock-dollar correlation is extreme and can resolve itself quite a bit unpredictably." ---------- "In an informal survey at a recent meeting of 150 or so institutions, those admitting to feeling nervous about underexposure to risk outnumbered those feeling too aggressive by a neat 10 to 1! This also suggests how a speculative rally can keep going longer than reasonable investors expect." - Jeremy Grantham 07/2009
2009-11-21 05:57:52
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Waverider Posts: 2785 Incept: 2007-12-23 Chicago
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>Zero Hedge: Potential Ukrainian Default Spooking Markets >Are the dominoes about to start falling? No. Whole world knows that once you loan money to anyone in Eastern Europe, it's like throwing a few million dollars in the whirlpool in KD's avatar. So it was all expected. I would not be surprised if Barcley already wrote this all off as loss the day they gave this loan. It's a non event in my book.
2009-11-21 10:50:58
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