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Genesis Posts: 71435 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/845-Be....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-03-03 07:46:15
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Phirang Posts: 8824 Incept: 2008-10-25 
bar khoba's revenge
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good ticker: must maintain discipline.
---------- The Treasury can issue debt on your behalf because the State can and will stomp the wealth out of you and your family.
2009-03-03 07:49:03
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Stemmit Posts: 2035 Incept: 2007-09-07
NYS
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Thanks Gen, for some much needed cold, cold comfort.
---------- The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who in the name of charity and goodwill shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will execute great v
2009-03-03 07:49:53
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Jhn Posts: 335 Incept: 2008-12-07 Yurop Online
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Karl, you said a month ago that the people who shorted at 800 were about to "get it in both holes". Now, you are saying the same at 700. Bears have killed every rally attempt. It seems to me we need to get to more fundamental levels considering earnings before there will be any counter-rally.
---------- Give me your view on fractional reserve banking and I shall tell you who you are.
2009-03-03 07:57:17
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Genesis Posts: 71435 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Jhn, you're free to ignore this if you want. BTW if you shorted at 800 and we rally from here to 1070, how many holes will you have at their original size? The point here is that the easy money has been made on this part of the cycle. If you want to play for a crash here, have at it. Just realize what you're doing, that this is pretty clearly a Wave 5 style movement, and that means its the end of this part of the cycle, not the beginning. I've seen plenty of wailing and gnashing of teeth on the forum over the last couple of years. Let's not have any more of it, ok? Cash is an asset class. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me Last modified:
2009-03-03 08:05:56 by genesis
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Braindamage Posts: 76 Incept: 2008-11-08 
ft bragg, nc
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short from here? this sums it up for me: http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks....
2009-03-03 08:12:57
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Blankfiend Posts: 1736 Incept: 2009-02-07
MA
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You are a wise man. Elliott wave is also predicting an imminent bear market rally. Good luck to all.
---------- My Elliott Wave Blog: http://blankfiendsew.blogspot.com/ Democrats and Republicans are like M&M's - different colors on the outside and full of brown stuff on the inside.
2009-03-03 08:17:56
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Wisc-xc Posts: 4828 Incept: 2007-07-14
outside chicago
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Any good news--better than expect BLS #'s, auto sales, housing numbers, Obama clarity, etc--and we head north for the time being. I'm worried that ts yields might cut any substantial rally off at the knees, however. Only way I'd be short here is on the crash play, which, IMO, isn't likely at this point in time. As you said, downside at this level is harder and harder to come by. A bounce makes sense here.
2009-03-03 08:21:51
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Jubber Posts: 4242 Incept: 2007-07-05
UK
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Karl, won't people wait to see what the employment figures are before they put their **** in the custard?
---------- "War is God's way of teaching Americans geography." Ambrose Bierce "The Emperor realized that the people were right but could not admit to that. He though it better to continue the procession under the illusion that anyone who couldn't see his clothes was either stupid or incompetent." Hans Christia
2009-03-03 08:31:21
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Jhn Posts: 335 Incept: 2008-12-07 Yurop Online
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I just don't see where the euphoria would come from. We've had tops at 940, 2 x 870, 780. Seems a little odd to go up to 900+ again. That would give an estimated p/e at 30. I have a modest short position. Dollar cost averaging into short positions should be an option in this market. ---------- Give me your view on fractional reserve banking and I shall tell you who you are.
2009-03-03 08:31:42
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Phirang Posts: 8824 Incept: 2008-10-25
bar khoba's revenge
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I'm not sure if the employment data is terribly relevant. All that really matters is if the admin gets its **** together with these banks. ---------- The Treasury can issue debt on your behalf because the State can and will stomp the wealth out of you and your family.
2009-03-03 08:32:33
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Nomullet Posts: 3422 Incept: 2007-11-11
Duke City
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What if the market disappoints everyone and just dribbles away like molasses from a busted jug?
---------- if you crap more than once a day you are eating too much
2009-03-03 08:32:50
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Aac123 Posts: 1518 Incept: 2007-09-23
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You know, it all seems a little too obvious to have a rally but I guess it must come sometime. It may even be contratian to think that nothing specutacular happens and we move sideways for a while - but I'm no expert of course ---------- Any one of us who doesn't have a healthy fear of the unknown isn't paying attention - Bank of America's Ken Lewis
2009-03-03 08:34:55
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Genesis Posts: 71435 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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All I'm pointing out is chart symmetry and the usual process of bear markets guys. If you want to believe we're instantly going to 500 because CNBC has 200 technicians on saying its coming tomorrow, be my guest. I do recall ho wmany people got it in both holes following Bear Stearns. How soon we forget... ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-03-03 08:37:04
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Randy123 Posts: 2006 Incept: 2008-09-24 New Jersey Online
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Honestly I don't see it Karl. Talking to people in business there is an exponential type decline going on and stocks are expensive if you ask me. I would want to see some sort of improvement in the economy, anything before I would think we'll see a 20% increase in the market. Much more likely is a stair step decline to nothing.
---------- Mliu is my hero. Captain melamine.
2009-03-03 08:44:37
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Genesis Posts: 71435 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Randy, the same thing was said in 2000-03 too. And in the 1930s. The market LONGER TERM winds up properly discounting events, but in the SHORT TERM it most certainly does not. The last two years of the housing bubble and up to October 2007 is proof positive of that. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-03-03 08:46:21
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Shooter Posts: 2758 Incept: 2007-11-26
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Well,while I know 50-60 handles are about to be jammed up the shorts. I must agree with Norse and McHugh that the follow through can't be supported and euphoria for buying is a dodo bird. But your wise words & chart of caution is duly noted. Now if i can just ease this tower out without waiting for the jobs number for lube i'll be more cautious holding overnight I promise. If I could just learn to sell the holes as bulls sell the rallies I might actually get somewhere. The whipsaws are giving me heartfailure, I do not like the set up for Tues. Wed. Thurs., since you guessed it I'm short like a mofo. Thanks Appreciated as always! ---------- Thomas Jefferson: "To preserve [the] independence [of the people,] we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our election between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude.
2009-03-03 08:47:29
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Genesis Posts: 71435 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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From a technical perspective we can certainly crash right here and now. But last night's Stochs on a daily give me a LOT of pause. We've not been here before - this far down - at any time in the bear market. We also are in the New Low area where bottoms happen. So yeah, we can crash here. But there is so much energy coiled up here that ANYTHING that instills any sort of confidence in the market - anything at all - and we will have a replay of Thanksgiving when we rocketed 150 handles straight up in six days. There's no ****ing way I want to be short into that, and the setup is right here, right now in the charts for it. Remember too that there has never been an all-on CRASH without a Hindy, and to get one, we need the 50MA to be pointing UPWARDS. A big fat ****ing rally would do that - into the summer months - followed by the mother and father of all collapses later in the year when the big FAIL stamp gets put on all the budgetary and similar crap. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-03-03 08:51:54
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Wrld_econ Posts: 643 Incept: 2007-09-18
Tennessee
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I suspect that the maximum pain is inflicted by drifting north for the rest of the week to put the shorts on guard and brighten some bullish sentiment, then next week double bottom to suck in more shorts just prior to the turn date and subsequent ramp. Could work. ---------- Correction in a bull market: Healthy Correction in a bear market: Very Scary
2009-03-03 08:54:31
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Aac123 Posts: 1518 Incept: 2007-09-23
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Do you think KD that stock are still expensive. The PE chart at GenerationDynamics http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-.... seems to suggest so. Of cousre you are more often correct that most - just asking ---------- Any one of us who doesn't have a healthy fear of the unknown isn't paying attention - Bank of America's Ken Lewis
2009-03-03 08:55:04
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Randy123 Posts: 2006 Incept: 2008-09-24 New Jersey Online
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I guess my point is that technically, we haven't seen this before. We are ahead of the 29-31 area if you ask me in terms of the speed of the economic decline. The stock market is a barometer for the economy, it isn't the economy. But as you have said with regard to pensions, at this level they are screwed anyway. Mish wrote an article in December that even at S&P 800 they were essentially bankrupt moving forward. So they're only in worse shape now. Any rallies will be used to dump by individuals moving forward.
---------- Mliu is my hero. Captain melamine.
2009-03-03 08:57:41
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Phirang Posts: 8824 Incept: 2008-10-25
bar khoba's revenge
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The black swan is epic sovereign failure abroad taking the ROW down with it. i.e. Austria going TU again and bringing down EU, which of course take out the UK which takes out US. ---------- The Treasury can issue debt on your behalf because the State can and will stomp the wealth out of you and your family.
2009-03-03 08:59:17
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Genesis Posts: 71435 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Yes, I think they're seriously expensive. I have said many times that major bear markets bottom with P/Es in the single digits on broad indices and with dividend yields on the SPX (and Dow) north of 5%. We're not there yet by a long shot. BUT - this does not mean that the market will simply move in a straight line to that point. Bear markets are not bull markets, and one thing that is characteristic of bear markets is that after each major leg downward there is a major retrace, and most of them get close to if not hit the 200MA and/or retrace up to 50% of the prior move. This is part of what makes bear markets such a BITCH in that unless you catch the corners you are stuck with huge pain until you're proven right - for that part of the cycle. If you get too aggressive you will get margined out and busted even if later proved correct. I expect the SPX to bottom AT BEST around 500, and AT WORST somewhere in the 80-90% loss area, simply because "THE BEZZLE" in the financial system is similar to that in the tech market, and the latter is something I saw and studied IN DETAIL the last time around. None of that changes the fact that if you're shorting here you need to be prepared for whatever drawdown results from a potential move back to the 200MA. If you're not, take your money. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-03-03 09:00:41
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Wrld_econ Posts: 643 Incept: 2007-09-18
Tennessee
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Randy, Here's a chart posted on Alphatrends.net comparing the two movements on the DOW. Speed is about the same. ---------- Correction in a bull market: Healthy Correction in a bear market: Very Scary
2009-03-03 09:03:27
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Aac123 Posts: 1518 Incept: 2007-09-23
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Thanks KD
---------- Any one of us who doesn't have a healthy fear of the unknown isn't paying attention - Bank of America's Ken Lewis
2009-03-03 09:03:39
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