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Genesis Posts: 71430 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/1316-A....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-08-11 08:59:05
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Throxxofvron Posts: 2672 Incept: 2009-02-17 
The Land of Bilk & Money
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Quote:raising cash, spending prudently if at all, and avoiding leverage. Nuff Said. ---------- DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell
2009-08-11 09:13:41
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Ck_dexter Posts: 1412 Incept: 2007-07-19 
SE PA Online
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I was beginning to think maybe I was the fool for having little debt, hoarding cash and keeping expenses low. maybe not.
---------- "When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves, in the course of time, a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it." - Frédéric Bastiat
2009-08-11 09:17:37
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Angel61 Posts: 602 Incept: 2008-10-13
Texas Online
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KD, Thanks for this ticker. Lately, it's been harder to believe I am sane. Appreciate all your work. ---------- Breathe deep, the gathering gloom...
2009-08-11 09:29:03
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Markytom Posts: 217 Incept: 2009-02-19
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Please explain how CNBC created this headline: Recession Isn't Sinking Yacht Sales In the article: Recession has shaken nearly every corner of the U.S. economy but Trinity Yachts is still turning out custom-built luxury boats, thanks in part to a sagging U.S. dollar. ..... Ferretti, an Italian luxury shipbuilder, that owns the Riva and Pershing yacht brands, was seized by creditors for missing loan payments, and Genmar Holdings, a big U.S. boat-maker, filed for bankruptcy protection in June. ..... Still, Trinity's backlog of orders has shrunk from a peak of 24 boats a few years ago, and the company may build only four next year. ..... Dane admits that Trinity is also feeling the chill. A commodities trader and a builder of ultra luxury homes defaulted on their yacht purchases this year. Through its brokerage arm, the company is working to find new buyers for those boats. From the article, even with its positive spin, shows that the yacht market IS sinking, and sinking fast. But then they throw in this line: The 2009 World Wealth Report, published by Capgemini and Merrill Lynch, estimates that the wealth of high-net-worth individuals in the world declined 20 percent last year, but predicts that it will soon rebound and grow at an annual rate of 8 percent, reaching a new high by 2013. Eight percent per year? Maybe if you are a GS exec. The "everything will be back to normal soon" meme is nothing more than the big lie - government and MSM are going to push it as hard as they can to try to turn most everyone into believing zombies - and people who dissent will continue to be attacked. (Thanks to people like Karl we have some access to what's really going on.) http://www.cnbc.com/id/32357590/site/140....
2009-08-11 09:30:28
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Tacoflavored Posts: 105 Incept: 2007-09-07
Tortilla Flats
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Aren't these CFOs who are now hoarding cash the same ass clowns who were buying back stock in record amounts in Q3 2007? I'm not saying that they're wrong to be conservative with cash now, but their recent track record as equity market prognosticators isn't so good. http://www.businessweek.com/investor/con....
2009-08-11 09:51:53
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Armedmichigander Posts: 380 Incept: 2009-03-27
MI Online
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Quote:is pricing in a nearly 5% GDP growth for each of the next four quarters. I've always observed GDP growth to be reported at an annualized rate, so that if the author isn't explicit, you can assume he means annualized. Yet it sounds like you are implying a quarterly rate, though I'm not certain. If so, wouldn't it be clearer to say "a 21.6% annualized growth rate for each of the next four quarters"?
2009-08-11 10:22:34
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Genesis Posts: 71430 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Armed, no, I'm talking about a reported 5% or better rate for all four of the next quarters. That's 5% annualized, level. Ain't gonna happen. In fact there isn't one rational economist who is looking for anything better than half that over the next 12 months. "Fair value" with a ~2% run rate on the GDP for the next 12 months is closer to 800 than 1000. Even worse, if interest rates go up the fair value GOES DOWN! ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me Last modified:
2009-08-11 10:25:24 by genesis
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Armedmichigander Posts: 380 Incept: 2009-03-27
MI Online
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Thanks for clarifying.Quote:Even worse, if interest rates go up the fair value GOES DOWN! Right. And since the 5% growth scenario constitutes rip-snorting pick up, both demand for money, and increase in velocity->inflation->inflation premium in the long rate will tend to drive rates higher. As you say, compressing the PE on equities. And one wonders at what point the rising rates would detonate the trillions of interest rate derivatives. I'm guessing financial institutions really do depend on those derivatives to save them if rates rise, and yet the counterparties who wrote all those would probably be wiped out if they had to make good.
2009-08-11 11:14:35
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Karefree Posts: 1637 Incept: 2008-10-15
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No one should think the economy is improving. Here's another example that I just learned this morning: Have a girlfriend in Cincinnati, Ohio who just bought a house (because she received substantial "help" on her down payment from the state and federal government and got a great price on the property). She closed in May.... Right before she closed on her house, I asked her "why are you buying a house right now with the economy in the toilet?"... her reply was "my job is stable - very stable - I'm not worried about losing it as I work in an industry that is insulated from all the problems"..... Well, this morning she called me to let me know she lost her job today when she went in to work - no warning, no typical "indicators" of problems... just, wham! - you're out! Nothing is improving, people, nothing! Last modified:
2009-08-11 11:50:35 by kristin
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Jwm_in_sb Posts: 224 Incept: 2009-04-16
California Desert
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Kristin, What industry was she in? I live in SoCal and my in-laws are all in either Health Care or State Funded Gov Healthcare positions for the most part. I've been trying to warn them that they are not insulated from this particularly as we move forward.
2009-08-11 12:34:33
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Karefree Posts: 1637 Incept: 2008-10-15
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She is in the textile industry - specifically, uniform design for offshore manufacturing. She felt that uniforms were fairly insulated from the recession... guess not.
2009-08-11 13:34:19
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Mliu_01 Posts: 10631 Incept: 2007-07-15
Corona CA
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Wow, kristin, just wow.
---------- A good guy gets friendship, a bad guy gets laid. J6P get the bills, Bankers get the bonus.
2009-08-11 13:35:36
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Koolaid Posts: 3171 Incept: 2007-07-23
Atlanta
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Taco, they were buying back stock at a record pace so that insiders and friends (including themselves) could sell their personal holdings into the buyback. I think that makes them "smart", though there's a few other adjectives that are probably more applicable.
2009-08-11 13:40:46
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Mliu_01 Posts: 10631 Incept: 2007-07-15
Corona CA
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Koolaid, revolution = suckers tired of get sucked.
---------- A good guy gets friendship, a bad guy gets laid. J6P get the bills, Bankers get the bonus.
2009-08-11 13:59:13
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Vfl Posts: 147 Incept: 2009-03-19 Seattle Metro, WA
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The coming layoffs tidal wave from cities and States- second derivatives of recession http://www.philly.com/philly/wires/ap/ne.... http://www.detnews.com/article/20090811/.... The coming failures of cities, counties and states, not to mention corporations http://www.demopolistimes.com/news/2009/.... http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/arti.... Man, green shoots everywhere, from the viewpoint of bankruptcy lawyer.
2009-08-11 18:25:50
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