RSS available
| MarketTicker Forums Read Message in Ticker |
User: Not logged on
|
| Top | Forum Top | Login | Control Panel | FAQ | Register | Logout |
| Showing Page 1 of 2 | First | 1 | 2 | Last |
| User Info | Another Bottom Caller: Remember This One in forum [Ticker] | |||
|
Genesis Posts: 71403 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
|
http://market-ticker.org/archives/1322-A....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-08-12 09:15:50
Permalink | |||
|
Themortgagedude Posts: 3930 Incept: 2007-12-17 
saint louis
|
Whats the PE on companies with positive earnings? I would guess that is overpriced too. Priced for perfection.
---------- "These are interesting times. We don't trust the government, we don't trust the legal system, we don't trust the media, and we don't trust each other! We've undermined all authority, and with it, the basis for replacing it! It's like a six-year-old's dream come true!"
2009-08-12 09:22:41
Permalink | |||
|
Coolhandluke Posts: 5636 Incept: 2007-12-19 
Out of the box
|
I guess if I sold life insurance, real estate, used cars, etc. I would be out in public every day beating the bushes looking for new customers and telling anyone who would listen that now is the time to buy. Why would stock brokers be any different? It's what they are, it's what they do. That's why I'm not in sales. I couldn't do it if I didn't believe it. 
---------- It's not that I'm lazy, I just don't give a **** anymore. Last modified:
2009-08-12 09:25:06 by coolhandluke
| |||
|
Themortgagedude Posts: 3930 Incept: 2007-12-17
saint louis
|
Another thing is there a way to look at the SP500 in a non dollar denonominated index easily. Seems that a lot of the price increase in the SP can be attributed to changes in the value of the dollar instead of green shoots. The only green shoots I see are stock market valuations and I would argue that someone will spray roundup on that real soon. ---------- "These are interesting times. We don't trust the government, we don't trust the legal system, we don't trust the media, and we don't trust each other! We've undermined all authority, and with it, the basis for replacing it! It's like a six-year-old's dream come true!"
2009-08-12 09:25:31
Permalink | |||
|
Anti Posts: 1286 Incept: 2007-10-09
Online
|
Theoretically, people are trying to look ahead and price the market based on "normalized earnings" - what these companies are going to be earning in a recovery. So, when the hope of immanent recovery comes out, then this run-up will come out of the price.
---------- Health is better than health insurance http://gerson.org/ Over the past 60 years, thousands of people have used the Gerson Therapy to recover from so-called “incurable” diseases such as cancer, diabetes, heart disease and arthritis.
2009-08-12 09:59:13
Permalink | |||
|
Trades50 Posts: 1142 Incept: 2007-10-30
IL Online
|
How many Schwabers will have their accounts dinged by listening to these people. Guess it serves them right. After the accounts are dinged she'll be out boasting about the long-term outlook and how it will come back. Another is "You can't time the market" or "Don't get out now, you'll miss the move up". Useless leeches that write articles and collect fees.
---------- Labor for the Globalist: World Class means Third World Class.
2009-08-12 09:59:41
Permalink | |||
|
Flapdoodle Posts: 659 Incept: 2008-01-25
La Serena, Chile
|
The "bottom" they are calling is like the seashore just before a tsunami hits. The water recedes leaving assorted flopping fish which fools rush out to pick up, all the while wondering what that roaring sound is off in the distance... ---------- --Smooth seas do not make skillful sailors. - African Proverb
2009-08-12 10:04:03
Permalink | |||
|
Margincalltime Posts: 830 Incept: 2008-04-01
NJ
|
Quote:Another thing is there a way to look at the SP500 in a non dollar denonominated index easily. Seems that a lot of the price increase in the SP can be attributed to changes in the value of the dollar instead of green shoots. The dollar index from the March high to the low recently around 77.5 on the futures is down only 13.5% vs. the market rise of about 50%. I'd hardly call it mostly due to the dollar. Some of it yes, certainly not most.
2009-08-12 10:17:19
Permalink | |||
|
Misterb Posts: 426 Incept: 2007-08-02
Minnesota
|
Quote:Theoretically, people are trying to look ahead and price the market based on "normalized earnings" - what these companies are going to be earning in a recovery. So, when the hope of imminate recovery comes out, then this run-up will come out of the price. I agree. Bulls are ignoring the PEs but if they did answer it would be that the current PEs are "not meaningful" and that one needs to look at what the earnings will be after the recovery. It somewhat reminds me of the dot com era when many companies were losing at great deal of money but had revenue growth or great prospects. When there are losses or the PEs become extreme it can "liberate" the stocks from any valuation criteria and can result in higher prices. My other comment is that after a 50% increase in stock prices, NOW they tell us to buy! Last modified:
2009-08-12 10:23:24 by misterb
| |||
|
Hilandstrata Posts: 58 Incept: 2008-10-19
|
The big boys want all that liquidity sitting on the sidelines...you know money markets. They've been positioned since March. They won't sell until they see enough of it back in for the taking. PE's don't matter in this rigged show.
2009-08-12 10:34:06
Permalink | |||
|
Marketdeception Posts: 4003 Incept: 2007-08-31
Lancaster, NY
|
I finally found the page where the p/e 143 came from. Unreal. I've been posting that the NDX p/e is ~ 90, but you won't find that on their website. The Invesco powershares QQQ has a reported p/e of 19, but they're using a Harmonic Weighted Average p/e. Isn't that ****ing convenient?
2009-08-12 10:36:13
Permalink | |||
|
Themortgagedude Posts: 3930 Incept: 2007-12-17
saint louis
|
Wtf is a harmonic weighted average. And anyhoo isn't 19 a little high for now. ---------- "These are interesting times. We don't trust the government, we don't trust the legal system, we don't trust the media, and we don't trust each other! We've undermined all authority, and with it, the basis for replacing it! It's like a six-year-old's dream come true!"
2009-08-12 11:15:07
Permalink | |||
|
Koaj Posts: 950 Incept: 2009-02-03
NJ
|
143 P/E? now that's value...i'm going long
2009-08-12 11:35:47
Permalink | |||
|
Markgoldman Posts: 325 Incept: 2009-01-13
Canuckistan Online
|
SO where does one find this p/e info? I looked up SPY but of course google finance had ' - ' and yahoo had something like '17'....right. I'm interested in a historical context chart to see how that relates to past booms and busts. Mark ---------- Healthcare: “It's the Pac-Man. It's eating everything else in people's budgets.” -Don Drummond TD Chief Economist on Canadian Healthcare hitting 11.9 per cent of GDP for 2009.
2009-08-12 17:32:56
Permalink | |||
|
Zenthunder Posts: 4684 Incept: 2007-10-11
|
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/.... They also have a spreadhseet there Last modified:
2009-08-12 17:38:53 by zenthunder
| |||
|
Coolhandluke Posts: 5636 Incept: 2007-12-19
Out of the box
|
From the link Zenthunder postedQuote:S&P 500 Statistics ---------- It's not that I'm lazy, I just don't give a **** anymore.
2009-08-12 18:27:40
Permalink | |||
|
Psquared Posts: 997 Incept: 2008-10-11 SE USA
|
How in the world do they suddenly get from a PE of 183 through 9/30/09 to a PE of 27.5 (est) for the 4th quarter??
---------- I have money, therefore I exist.
2009-08-12 21:44:16
Permalink | |||
|
Coolhandluke Posts: 5636 Incept: 2007-12-19
Out of the box
|
Psquared You have to run the projected 4th quarter numbers through a PFM module to get 27.5 ---------- It's not that I'm lazy, I just don't give a **** anymore. Last modified:
2009-08-12 22:09:15 by coolhandluke
| |||
|
Eleua Posts: 9906 Incept: 2007-07-05
N 47.72/ W 122.55 Online
|
CHL wrote..You have to run the projected 4th quarter numbers through a PFM module to get 27.5 PFM = ? PFM is also a USN term for "pure ****ing magic." Is that what your are saying? ---------- http://clearcutbainbridge.blogspot.com/
2009-08-12 22:46:35
Permalink | |||
|
Coolhandluke Posts: 5636 Incept: 2007-12-19
Out of the box
|
Yes, PFM = "Pure ****ing Magic" Flow charted as follows: Start Subroutine Input earnings Input share price Process PFM Output 27.5 End Subroutine I see no other way to get from 143 down to 27.5 by Q4 Other than to collapse equity prices and you know they are not going to do that voluntarily. I certainly don't see them hitting that number by improving earnings that much. ---------- It's not that I'm lazy, I just don't give a **** anymore. Last modified:
2009-08-12 23:26:14 by coolhandluke
| |||
|
Coolhandluke Posts: 5636 Incept: 2007-12-19
Out of the box
|
As a matter of fact, If "they" are estimating a P/E of 27.5 by Q4 then what they must be really forcasting is a severe drop in the index assuming earnings stay the same or go down. Earnings going up a percent or two is not going to reduce the P/E down to 27.5 from 143
---------- It's not that I'm lazy, I just don't give a **** anymore. Last modified:
2009-08-12 23:30:05 by coolhandluke
| |||
|
Goldie Posts: 244 Incept: 2008-08-02
North Carolina
|
I love it!! P/E 143.95... 
---------- Total destruction the only solution ~Real Situation by Bob Marley Last modified:
2009-08-12 23:40:44 by goldie
| |||
|
Coolhandluke Posts: 5636 Incept: 2007-12-19
Out of the box
|
Hypothetical Example: If the index was priced at $143 and was earning $1.00 then that would be a PE of 143 right? ($143.00 / $1.00 = PE of 143) So to get to a PE of 27, earnings would have to go from $1.00, in this example, to $5.30 if the price of $143 stayed the same. ($5.30 x PE of 27 = a price of $143.10) Or, if earnings remained the same at $1.00 then the price would have to fall from $143 down to $27 to have a PE of 27. ($1.00 earnings x 27 PE = a price of $27.00) Which is more likely? Earnings going up 530 percent by the end of the year or the index droping 81%? Both would result in a PE of roughly 27 If I knew for a fact that the PE would be 27 on December 31st I would have to bet that the index had lost 81% and not gained 529 percent in earnings. Even if earnings did rise a bit, the index price would still have to fall a good amount to get down to a PE of 27 from here. Example: Earnings DOUBLE by the end of the year from $1.00 to $2.00 and the price drops from $143 down to $54 then you would still get a PE of 27. ($2.00 earnings x PE of 27 = a price of $54) Are any of the experts calling for earnings to double between now and the end of the year? How about trippling earnings to $3.00 x PE of 27 for an index price of $81 in the above example? Somebody check my math, but I think those are the implications. ---------- It's not that I'm lazy, I just don't give a **** anymore. Last modified:
2009-08-13 00:35:17 by coolhandluke
| |||
|
Horsewithnonick Posts: 12 Incept: 2009-04-03
|
And the WSJ reports their panel of economists is pretty sure the recession is over...sounds like a blatant attempt to manufacture a self-fulfilling prophecy... It's Tinkerbell Economics - "Clap if you believe in the Economy!" - orchestrated by the same pirates who fed it poison in the first place...
2009-08-13 00:24:23
Permalink | |||
|
Coolhandluke Posts: 5636 Incept: 2007-12-19
Out of the box
|
I moved a copy of the above over to General for review and discussion.
---------- It's not that I'm lazy, I just don't give a **** anymore.
2009-08-13 00:36:18
Permalink | |||
| Top | Forum Top | Login | Control Panel | Logout |
| Showing Page 1 of 2 | First | 1 | 2 | Last |