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| User Info | A Very Beary Future - AND A NEW PETITION! in forum [Ticker] | ||||
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2008/....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-03-15 16:52:12
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Ocbear Posts: 1684 Incept: 2007-06-29 
OC, CA Online
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Great ticker as usual Karl. Are SHY and BIL considered unsafe for some reason?
2008-03-15 17:08:37
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Cfbif Posts: 379 Incept: 2007-08-19 
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KD - I see your mention of VMPXX nnd FDLXX as safe places to preserve capital. For people that aren't actively trading in and out of stocks (use the invest for the long term approach) and want something relatively low risk, what about just putting their money into the the different inverse index based ETFs available and riding things out for the next 1-2 years?
2008-03-15 17:09:10
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Antone Posts: 3820 Incept: 2008-02-03
This ain't your grandpa's depression.
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Another excellent ticker, Gen. I just signed the new petition.
---------- Wir sind gefickt. I do not provide investing advice.
2008-03-15 17:13:20
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Genesis Posts: 71432 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Cf there is risk in the ultrashorts due to counterparty potential problems.... The quality of that risk is unknowable, but 1-2 years is too damn long to sit on them. THose are trading, not investing vehicles. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-03-15 17:17:19
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4155 Posts: 1597 Incept: 2007-07-19
USA
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Signed and passed it along.
2008-03-15 17:50:32
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Tonyh Posts: 1169 Incept: 2007-12-01
Spring, TX
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Very good (as usual). Forwarded to friends who can -hopefully- sign the petition. I do agree that earnings expectations are on the optimistic side and none of this has been yet discounted. In fact the only thing we've seen so far is the reaction to the real estate bubble deflation (and the beginning of the foreclosures of the subprime loans) as well as the reaction to the company specific blow ups (Banks, etc.). The 'wider' market is not pricing in (as I too see it) the spillover effects of this in the rest of the companies/sectors. Just reacting to the news 'waves'. What's surprising is that there's still optimistic guidance in retail, technology, etc. out there. Chances are that more disappointments are in the horizon. But hey, BSC's CEO did not know (yeah, right!) that insolvency was 2 days away, can we really expect CEOs and CFOs to make accurate predictions which are a quarter or a year away? Or even [most] analysts for that matter... All these are good for trading (and -hopefully- our accounts), but the social impact will be felt (not in a pleasant way) by everyone. The worst part is that our kids will pay for all this and I am afraid education, although getting more expensive, is not getting (nor will it be getting) any better... ---------- The following statement is true. The preceding statement was false.
2008-03-15 17:58:35
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Richard112360 Posts: 148 Incept: 2008-02-06 Hooterville
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Excellent Ticker KD, I've signed and passed it along.
2008-03-15 19:16:37
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Thisthatother47 Posts: 287 Incept: 2007-09-15
St Paul, MN
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Damn, you're good. I send out an update to friends/family occasionaly, and it's getting to the point where I just constantly direct them to your ticker. Same question as above - does SHY become any more risky with Lehman suddenly looking shaky, or are they just a "conduit", with the underlying treasuries still being secure?? Thanks! ---------- So I washed it down in gasoline And dried it with a match - ike reilly
2008-03-15 19:17:09
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Zanni-baby Posts: 922 Incept: 2007-11-09
the Valley
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KD--You are STELLAR! As you say--and I concur--It's time to stop playing games, and get real. The clock is ticking. Thanks to you KD--truly many thanks--for the future of our Nation, and our children, who WILL become strong due to this, and will, I think beat the odds--because of their youth, and brilliance. LOL- ~Zanni ---------- As for all the Banksters-It's all said in one word: GOUT!
2008-03-15 19:44:28
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Moonoverseattle Posts: 2776 Incept: 2008-02-02
MOTEL 6
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Great read signed petition and forwarded it to about 300 of my clients - hopefully they will get off their ass and sign....... appreciate the quick comment on inverse funds. I got out of most on friday but want to get back on the pony again and ride it. Just dont know how fast this **** will implode and how much risk. So pondering if we get a rally. ---------- A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury.
2008-03-15 19:45:30
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Guydaley Posts: 10915 Incept: 2007-07-10
Missouri & Wyoming
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KD - I never miss a ticker, thanks!
---------- 2/17/09 = Hogzilla bill was signed = THE POINT OF NO RETURN = Cheers to the Reset, LONG LIVE THE UNDERGROUND ECONOMY! STARVE the BEAST! Adopt a J6P.
2008-03-15 19:55:57
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Interested Posts: 2689 Incept: 2007-10-07
SC
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Karl, I like the letter. I would add that since you wrote it, the $200 B 28- day TSLF for the primary dealers announced by the Fed will now potentially put subprime AAA or other "in-name only" AAA private lablel mortgage assets on the Fed's balance sheet for the first time, further engendering the moral hazard endgame. A description of the subprime "AAA" MBS that the Fed has not ruled out taking in the 28 day $200B TSLF backstop for Bear Sterns is as follows: The TSLF statement says the collateral the Fed will accept includes "non-agency AAA/Aaa-rated private-label residential MBS". So the paper could be be Alt-A or subprime distressed paper. In addition, the $100B TAF uses regular discount window collateral requirements (found here http://www.frbdiscountwindow.org/discoun.... There is no row for non-AAA mortgage securities on the collateral table, yet surely the non-downgraded, but in still-AAA rated distressed paper will be pledged for the TAF as well. This EXCELLENT Bloomberg tool notes that 74 of the 80 pools in the subprime AAA index do not meet AAA criterion: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?pid=a.... Including the new $100B repo which will accept agency paper (now deteriorating as well), the Fed will have lent out more than 1/2 its balance sheet to try to prevent the consequences of the speculative bubble in real estate and debt from punishing those who created it. By using the balance sheet of the entity backstopping Federal Reserve Notes, otherwise known as U.S. dollars, to acquire distressed, leveraged paper, even "temporarily", the Fed is further distributing the consequences of leveraged speculation by by bad actors to the U.S. public at large by destroying sentiment toward the USD, and further reinforcing the "Fed put"/moral hazard model which created the conditions that allowed such leveraged real estate and debt speculation to propogate. Last modified:
2008-03-15 23:05:27 by interested
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Ilikethehype Posts: 573 Incept: 2007-06-26
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Great Ticker! It's going to be an interesting week and I can't wait to see what Monday's sticksave is going to be... Did anyone else notice a different tone in today's (Saturday's) WSJ? Worthy of reference in the Ticker, it seemed to be very sobering, very direct and to the point. I don't know, but it was a very different read. ---------- Bernanke himself revealed the various policy measures the Fed might take in response to a crisis: buying government bonds, providing overdrafts and other short-term credits to banks, currency swaps (to boost the dollar), and "securities lending," that is, lending money to institutions to buy stocks. URL htt
2008-03-15 20:11:36
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Interested Posts: 2689 Incept: 2007-10-07
SC
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Other point I would add (on Ticker) on Democratic vs Republican president... not gonna make a difference. See "Bush Beats Johnson" page 2. GW Bush grew DOMESTIC spending at 7.1% annually. Next two highest were Ford and Johnson. http://www.cato.org/pubs/tbb/tbb-0510-26.... McCain is running as GW Bush 2 and says he knows nothing about economics so he will stimulize as well.
2008-03-15 20:26:11
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Doublesmooth Posts: 138 Incept: 2008-02-01
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Great ticker. I have my cash in 6 month t-bills through my Schwab account. You only mentioned direct purchases, so you have me worried. Is there any risk in having t-bills with Schwab, and if so is there anything I can do between now and the time they mature in April.
2008-03-15 20:33:51
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Darknight Posts: 3293 Incept: 2007-08-10
The Wicked Forrest
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Yahoo is still fully blocking the confirm e-mails, I went through an alternate address to confirm it. Tried setting up a special filter to make sure your hitting the inbox and had the e-mail resent, but no dice. Edit: Logged a complaint with Yahoo customer service. I'll let you know... ---------- The price of apathy towards public affairs is to be ruled by evil men. - Plato Last modified:
2008-03-15 20:48:30 by baltman
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Matt Posts: 3820 Incept: 2007-06-26
Bothell, WA
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Best petition yet, signed and emailed, IM'd the link around.
---------- "Market players should be buying things even though they are overvalued, Cramer advised. Although this may seem irresponsible, traditional market thinking is not going to get people anywhere right now."
2008-03-15 21:11:53
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Jooon_yer Posts: 839 Incept: 2007-06-26
baba booey
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KD - Excellent post. KD or anyone else -- noticed KD mentioned for safety going into T-Bill's, VMPXX, FDLXX (which are all essentially the safest thing we'll be able to find). Unfortunately my father has A LOT of money with TIAA-CREF IRA account -- they don't offer VMPXX or FDLXX. He is right now in their TIAA-CREF Money Market Fund and the TIAA-CREF Guaranteed Fund (backed by TIAA). All his options are (I don't see anything that is like VMPXX or FDLXX below): http://www.tiaa-cref.org/performance/ins.... I was thinking maybe the Inflation Linked Bond (TIILX) might be better and safer for the next year or so as compared to the TIAA MMF ? Any opinions TIAA (TIILX) - Inflation Linked Bond http://www.tiaa-cref.org/performance/ins.... TIAA Money Market (TCIXX) http://www.tiaa-cref.org/performance/ins.... They also have a Short Term Bond II (TISIX) but not sure on that: http://www.tiaa-cref.org/performance/ins.... Thanks for advice ahead of time
2008-03-15 21:16:53
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Eternalblue Posts: 4230 Incept: 2007-08-09
sokali
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Quote:Cf there is risk in the ultrashorts due to counterparty potential problems.... This is too bad, alot of those have been great rides. It is unfortunate so little detail is disclosed about the inverse ETFs. ---------- my miniblog; http://economicpsychosis.blogspot.com/
2008-03-15 21:46:53
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Raster Posts: 1902 Incept: 2007-08-16
Rar!
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KD - If you're having problems with emails getting sent to AOL addresses, set up a "Feedback Loop" with AOL. It'll make sure all your emails get through - they just police them and you get notified when someone marks them as spam.
---------- ǝɹǝɥ ǝuo ןɐɯɹou ʎןuo ǝɥʇ ɯ,ı˙˙˙dn pǝʞɔnɟ ןןɐ ǝɹɐ sʎnƃ noʎ 
2008-03-15 22:00:42
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Luvs_footie Posts: 1839 Incept: 2007-11-26 Australia
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Great letter KD. ---------- Much of what we labeled Tin just two years ago is now known to have been truth. While today, what most think to be truth is Pure F**king Tin. The times....they are a changing
2008-03-15 22:11:21
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Cougar Posts: 158 Incept: 2007-07-26
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@ Joon--I'm in TIAA-CREF, and for a good long time I've had most of my money in the TIPS account. You're right--if you take a look at the on-line prospectus for all of the other offerings, even funds such as the MMF have holdings in CDOs, mortgage-backed securities, and the like. The nice thing about the TIPS account is that its objective is very narrowly defined, and thus it can't get into very much--if any (from what I recall)--non-US govt debt. I don't have the paper prospectus in front of me, but I looked at it earlier this week and remember feeling as reassured as one could be about that option.
2008-03-15 23:06:32
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Bloovic Posts: 270 Incept: 2008-02-21 The Middle Of Somewhere
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Thankyou for all you do here, Gen, I appreciate it. I bring this site to the attention of most of the people I know, and have e-mailed relevant pieces back home to the UK. I hope we all get through this crap OK.
---------- The last official act of a corrupt government is to loot the nation.
2008-03-15 23:06:38
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Pika-steph Posts: 39200 Incept: 2007-09-11
^Why I keep^ fighting; so he is not fighting for nothing.
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Karl - the radio interview only goes up to the first commercial break and stops.
---------- Stop the Looting; Start Prosecuting - http://www.FedUpUSA.org  "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system, but too early to shoot the bastards."
2008-03-15 23:42:33
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