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| User Info | The UNOFFICIAL Troubled/Safer Bank List in forum [Rumors] | |||
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Obseedian Posts: 7724 Incept: 2007-07-26 
RIMM Central 
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I'm not sure whether this list was released so I made my own. Only CA and FL right now, it takes time to type this stuff into Excel from Bankrate.com I easily found about 7 banks that are in as bad or worse (FAR worse in some cases) shape as Indymac a quarter before closure. I used my own ratio that combines the Texas Ratio and Equity/Asset ratio to make a rough estimate of what the bank's equity ratio would look like if non-performing assets are recovered at 50%. Seems to correlate nicely with the most recently failed banks. Anyone think this list would be a good idea to publish? I mean, I don't want to incite a general bank run but seriously, I don't see how these banks don't fail. Edit: Here as the lists, generated from FDIC data. There is the troubled list of course, and two lists of well capitalized banks with few bad assets for a safer place for your money. The nice bank list is broken up into two lists by state to reduce the file size of each list. Troubled: http://www.geocities.com/tubeguy@rogers..... Safer (AL to MS): http://www.geocities.com/tubeguy@rogers..... Safer (MT to WY): http://www.geocities.com/tubeguy@rogers..... ---------- Would you give your money to these banks? http://bankimplode.com/list/troubledbank.... Genitalia - Not just another Italian airline! Last modified:
2008-07-27 18:19:05 by obseedian
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Genesis Posts: 66462 Incept: 2007-06-26 
Royal Flush!
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Do it. Its based on your analysis - it is perfectly valid to publish your analysis. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-07-15 20:19:40
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Obseedian Posts: 7724 Incept: 2007-07-26
RIMM Central
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OK I made a web page out of that Excel file. http://www.geocities.com/tubeguy@rogers..... ---------- Would you give your money to these banks? http://bankimplode.com/list/troubledbank.... Genitalia - Not just another Italian airline! 2008-07-15 20:52:47
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Junkyard Posts: 5022 Incept: 2007-11-06
NZ: land of the damned
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Thanks Obseedian. Those in Red and Orange are the 7 you're highlighting? How about those with NPA:A ratios not highlighted and higher than those 7? Much thanks ---------- It's the people in power having to admit that they know ... But you don't say it... It's a conglomarate. If one of them betrays the principles of the accrual of money and power, the others betray him. 2008-07-15 21:14:45
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Obseedian Posts: 7724 Incept: 2007-07-26
RIMM Central
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Yes the red and orange ones are the most likely to fail. The list is sorted according to effective equity/assets, you have to scroll over to the right to see it. Some have high NPA/A but also have higher equity/Assets so they can withstand higher writeoffs. Of course I only used Bankrate's Equity/Assets column, some of these banks have much lower tangible equity/tangible assets ratios. But it's unclear whether the equity/assets column uses tangible equity or total equity. So take it with a grain of salt. ---------- Would you give your money to these banks? http://bankimplode.com/list/troubledbank.... Genitalia - Not just another Italian airline! 2008-07-15 21:20:47
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Obseedian Posts: 7724 Incept: 2007-07-26
RIMM Central
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Looks like I'm gonna run into my hourly 4.2MB data transfer limit  Well it's a free GeoCities account, what can I expect? ---------- Would you give your money to these banks? http://bankimplode.com/list/troubledbank.... Genitalia - Not just another Italian airline! 2008-07-15 21:44:57
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Obseedian Posts: 7724 Incept: 2007-07-26
RIMM Central
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Updated the list with banks from NV and a few from OH and AZ. A bank from Scottsdale makes the red list. What a shock!  ---------- Would you give your money to these banks? http://bankimplode.com/list/troubledbank.... Genitalia - Not just another Italian airline! 2008-07-15 22:00:18
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Canadaman Posts: 1375 Incept: 2007-08-10
Charlotte, NC
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Thanks obs
---------- "Every mania in financial history has been liquidity driven. You can go back to the South Sea Bubble or tulips in Holland. As long as the money is coming in, everything is fine." - Raymond DeVoe, Dec. 11, 1995 2008-07-15 22:26:53
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Bozonian Posts: 13051 Incept: 2007-09-01
PFT - Pure F'n Tin
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Good Lord I just found out my parents have 400k in FED!!!!! It's in a trust account owned by 7 people (I being one) and is FDIC covered up to 700k. I told my mom on Friday to go get 10k in cash (I didn't know their bank was was FED). Hopefully since FED is probably one of the next to go under, the FDIC will be able to cover it. ---------- If deficits don't matter, then the Federal Government can borrow the money it needs and stop taxing the citizens. Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice. 2008-07-15 22:34:17
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Cashncarry Posts: 3729 Incept: 2007-07-24 
SoCal
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Great job! Wow, I thought Fremont would have succumbed by now. ---------- "What's that burning smell, and why are we in this handbasket?..." 2008-07-15 22:34:27
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Obseedian Posts: 7724 Incept: 2007-07-26
RIMM Central
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Updated again with some NY and MI banks. Sheesh, lot's of rancid banks in Michigan, including a fairly sizable one. Sorry, Steph! ---------- Would you give your money to these banks? http://bankimplode.com/list/troubledbank.... Genitalia - Not just another Italian airline! 2008-07-15 22:34:57
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Obseedian Posts: 7724 Incept: 2007-07-26
RIMM Central
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Fremont got acquired so their data is probably not relevant. Maybe relevant for CapitalSource! ---------- Would you give your money to these banks? http://bankimplode.com/list/troubledbank.... Genitalia - Not just another Italian airline! 2008-07-15 22:37:07
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Friar_tuck Posts: 583 Incept: 2008-01-09 N. Cal Online
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Nice work, thank you for post, but I have a question: I am having trouble identifying a bank on Bankrate.com. Family member has a CD from "Guaranty Bank" (that's the name on the building anyway). Bankrate shows about a dozen banks with "Guaranty" in the name but none of them are listed in this town. Grandma says "some of the paperwork says something about Texas" the one in TX is rated at the bottom of the scale... Does the FDIC have a site with more thorough bank names/addresses? Guaranty Bank of Texas has the worst CAEL rating and worst "star" rating, yet it didnt make your list, am I missing something? --Irony, definition: Andrew Jackson's portrait on an FRN Last modified:
2008-07-15 22:42:01 by friar_tuck
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Tat668 Posts: 1583 Incept: 2007-09-09
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Thank you Obs.. Your chart makes it much easier for me to send to family and friends when they ask me which bank is safe. ---------- "Patience grasshoppers.... but your time to eat the bugs is coming......."- KD 9-1-2009 "This marks the beginning of the end."- Barack Obama 2-26-09 2008-07-15 22:47:40
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Obseedian Posts: 7724 Incept: 2007-07-26
RIMM Central
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Friar The list is not exhaustive, I only did a few states. I didn't do Texas. I have to do this manually. If someone knows where I can download the raw data that would be AWESOME! Guaranty Bank does seem to be under-capitalized. I just included it for you on the list. ---------- Would you give your money to these banks? http://bankimplode.com/list/troubledbank.... Genitalia - Not just another Italian airline! 2008-07-15 22:49:38
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Friar_tuck Posts: 583 Incept: 2008-01-09 N. Cal Online
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Thank you, I think I understand the distinction now. (Your list specifies the state in which the bank is chartered, not necessarily including banks operating in states out side their charter/home office location?)
2008-07-15 23:03:08
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Obseedian Posts: 7724 Incept: 2007-07-26
RIMM Central
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Yes the state you see is where they are chartered/hq'd. However there are so many of them I just don't have time to enter them all. For example the list for GA is big, I haven't really looked at it. No time. ---------- Would you give your money to these banks? http://bankimplode.com/list/troubledbank.... Genitalia - Not just another Italian airline! 2008-07-15 23:08:26
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Rjazz117 Posts: 11976 Incept: 2007-09-11
Actually, the future is pretty bright after all.
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Great chart, Obs...thanks for publishing it!
---------- "And so my fellow Americans, ask not what your country can do for you - ask what you can do for your country" John F. Kennedy  2008-07-15 23:09:03
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Sideler Posts: 742 Incept: 2007-11-10
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To look up your banks info go here: http://www.bankrate.com/brm/safesound/se.... I know this web site updates without notice. Check it often. 2008-07-15 23:15:04
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Fidgit Posts: 12978 Incept: 2008-02-18
AllyBammy Online
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Great work Obseedian - thanks!!! ---------- I say it's spinach, and I say the hell with it. 2008-07-15 23:21:09
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Carbonmutant Posts: 2855 Incept: 2007-08-28
Mountain View, CA
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I assume you guys know about the "Texas Ratio" http://www.snlcenter.com/bandt.asp Quote:The term "Texas Ratio" was coined by RBC Capital Markets analyst Gerard Cassidy and others at the firm's equity research teams, who used the ratio to identify potential bank failures when covering banks in Texas during the 1980s.The Texas ratio is calculated by taking total nonperforming assets, including loans 90 or more days delinquent, and dividing them by tangible total equity plus loan loss reserves." Anyway this is an example from Chicago.  ---------- The Future is already here, it's just not Evenly Distributed... Last modified:
2008-07-16 00:32:08 by carbonmutant
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Carbonmutant Posts: 2855 Incept: 2007-08-28
Mountain View, CA
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Of course Georgia banks are in a completely different class.National rank Assets* Texas ratio(%) ---------- The Future is already here, it's just not Evenly Distributed... Last modified:
2008-07-16 00:41:30 by carbonmutant
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Blackswan Posts: 3360 Incept: 2007-11-06
Execution Pit
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Thanks OBS. Nice work. I bet First Fed shoots up into the red soon once they disclose the NPA's come earnings on 7/25. They have gone parabolic like Downey. ---------- The market can crash further then you can remain short. Trade the moon cycle not the tape you want. 2008-07-16 00:55:21
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Rad Posts: 375 Incept: 2007-08-27
The Yoga Mecca
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Hey, Obs, nice work. Think about Bankrate (RATE) to short! Not too many remaining advertising sponsors. 
---------- 2008-07-16 01:19:49
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Dotacion Posts: 32 Incept: 2008-02-25 California
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Good job!
---------- "After all, why do people read a paper? To find out what's going on, or to see it confirmed that la-la land still exists?" -Ilargi 2008-07-16 01:47:28
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