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User Info Long Term Timing Signal - The 20w/50w from Tickerguy in forum [Presentations]
Genesis
Posts: 71435
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
KD^2
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Note that this is the 20 WEEK and 50 WEEK simple moving averages (SMAs), not the 20 and 50 DAY.

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"The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-04-12 15:33:06
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Pikachu
Posts: 5074
Incept: 2007-08-24

Down under
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thanks mate

honestly thanks.

2008-04-12 15:48:29
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Zerosum
Posts: 3674
Incept: 2007-11-11

Yes. It's a train.
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Awesome public service! This is probably going to be my Most Forwarded video.

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Sic transit LORAN-C
2008-04-12 15:53:14
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Blackswan
Posts: 3602
Incept: 2007-11-06

Ponzi Roller Coaster
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That was fast per my email request. Thanks for putting this together.

Yeah I had that confused the DMAs vs the weekly.


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2008-04-12 15:54:46
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Meltdown
Posts: 977
Incept: 2008-03-18

FL
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Great KISS video for people who don't quite have it down yet ;). Thanks KD!


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VICTORY BELONGS TO THE RELENTLESS!

Last modified: 2008-04-12 16:30:26 by meltdown

2008-04-12 16:01:31
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Jooon_yer
Posts: 839
Incept: 2007-06-26

baba booey
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Thank you

2008-04-12 16:38:07
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Genesis
Posts: 71435
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
KD^2
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Unfortunately Camtasia has somewhat of a ****fit trying to record audio with the PIP window turned on - it works but there are some audio artifacts - on both my laptop and my "mongo power" desktop machine.

I assume its running into some trouble interleaving everything it has to do and probably can't take advantage of the multithreaded nature of a multiprocessor machine....

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"The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-04-12 17:05:09
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Atticuswfu
Posts: 167
Incept: 2007-07-10
Tampa, FL
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This was a fantastic video. Does anyone have a good link to a chart with the 50/20 SMA weekly's? I'm not getting it to work with my usual charting service.

2008-04-12 17:12:28
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Lemonaid
Posts: 4782
Incept: 2008-01-20

Detroit Metro
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Stockharts.com but then it dosn't appear to allow viewing farther back in time than about 5 or so years. Any other free services? I have interactivebrokers and afaik you can't do much usefull technical charting at all.

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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." Ludwig von Mises
2008-04-12 17:27:14
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Stemmit
Posts: 2035
Incept: 2007-09-07

NYS
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Clear simple technique easy to execute that I will use soon to take a break, but for now gambling on the short side is too much fun!

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The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who in the name of charity and goodwill shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will execute great v
2008-04-12 17:44:13
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Lemonaid
Posts: 4782
Incept: 2008-01-20

Detroit Metro
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hmmm... are TFers the lucky 10%ers?

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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." Ludwig von Mises
2008-04-12 17:49:02
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Burtoby
Posts: 521
Incept: 2007-10-28

Arlington,Tx
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Ok Karl,

You seem to know everything- but how are you with a Quadrajet? Haha!

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Tryin' to turn 6 figures into 7.
2008-04-12 17:54:22
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Genesis
Posts: 71435
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
KD^2
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Not bad, Burt....

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"The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2008-04-12 17:57:25
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Pel
Posts: 621
Incept: 2008-01-22

Texas
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I wonder what the rate of return would be to buy & periodically roll long term puts on index funds when the bear market starts according to this formula.

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Federal Reserve Governor Fisher wrote..
"My dissenting vote last week was simply a difference of opinion about how far and how fast we might re-spike the monetary punchbowl."

2008-04-12 18:05:03
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Luvs_footie
Posts: 1839
Incept: 2007-11-26
Australia
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KD,

Many thanks for this.

Do you ever Sleep?

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Much of what we labeled Tin just two years ago is now known to have been truth.
While today, what most think to be truth is Pure F**king Tin.
The times....they are a changing
2008-04-12 18:18:26
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Britishsteel
Posts: 726
Incept: 2007-12-07

New york
Online
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anyone know what settings to use in e signal?

2008-04-12 18:30:54
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Chassa
Posts: 896
Incept: 2008-01-09

Scotland
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Thanks Gen - been fascinated with this since you first highlighted it - wish I cud have the last 20 years over again armed with this info!
Just for a laff I played about with this, testing on the established indices that I watch. (S&P, Nik225, Nas Comp, Hang Seng, Ftse All Share, Ftse 100, DJI, Dax & Cac40
Observations:
1) Works pretty well across multiple indices.
2) Whilst still fairly robust, signals less 'clean' on DJI & Nas Comp
3) Only one which hasn't seen crossover yet is Hang Seng.

Why reinvent the wheel though - I'll just stick to S&P signals.


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Congratulations [insert your country] Idol (and everyone who watches it), you succeeded in making everything suck.

(paraphrased) The Reformed Broker.
2008-04-12 18:33:42
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Atticuswfu
Posts: 167
Incept: 2007-07-10
Tampa, FL
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Thanks, Lemonaid. It looks like stockcharts.com gets me where I need to be.

For others who may be wondering, follow these steps:

1. Click the link: http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.ht....
2. Click the second chart, entitled "Weekly View."
3. Under "Chart Attributes," select "Landscape" as the size.
4. Under "Overlays," select "Simple Mov. Avg" and enter 20.
5. Under "Overlays," select "Simple Mov. Avg" and enter 50.
6. Under "Indicators" select "None." Not essential, but it reduces clutter.

Sorry I can't post a hard link to the final product, but the stockcharts.com interface isn't set up for it. If anyone has a better chart or settings, post it here! This was a great vid and I'll be watching this indicator for a signal on when to go long again...In, oh, 2012 maybe?




2008-04-12 18:57:30
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Mrgone
Posts: 1697
Incept: 2007-09-15

As if anyone gives a crap
Online
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"They're more interested in making money than you are" Too funny, too true!

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“I hope we shall... crush in its birth the aristocracy of our moneyed corporations which dare already to challenge our government in a trial of strength, and bid defiance to the laws of our country.”
— Thomas Jefferson, 1816
Sorry about that Tom
2008-04-12 19:03:41
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Lemonaid
Posts: 4782
Incept: 2008-01-20

Detroit Metro
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Atticus: can you view longer periods of time than just the last few years? I can't seam to view earlier than may '05.

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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." Ludwig von Mises
2008-04-12 19:17:16
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Atticuswfu
Posts: 167
Incept: 2007-07-10
Tampa, FL
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Lemonaid, nope, I'm having the same problem. I guess we get what we pay for.

2008-04-12 19:27:13
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Nutzy
Posts: 64
Incept: 2007-06-27
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Karl,

This is something that could really catch fire. The first question anyone would ask their broker is "Are you tracking this?" The second would be "If not, what am I paying you for? It is so simple even I understand it."

This is going to everyone I know. I am always looking for simple, powerful arguments for friends and family. It is so difficult to verbalize all the variables swirling around. This hits it on the head. I would even say it trumps my current "What would it cost to rent your current place? What are you paying per month to own it?"

I was recently able to convince a few permabull broker friends that short is the new long. They are buying the SRS/SKF for their personal accounts and getting their clients out of their BIDUs and FSLRs. It took over a year but you can only deny the data for so long. Hopefully, I saved their jobs and saved their clients some money. I hate to watch the trusting and unsophisticated getting kicked in the groin.

2008-04-12 19:28:09
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Dirtysouth
Posts: 2766
Incept: 2007-09-20

Love Truth Honour ॐ
Banned
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pffft... where's the thrill in "investing"

DJI says we got another month at least, till we know which way we are heading... thats 130+ hours of swingin' baby

Same sma, tma, ema apply to trading as well... *cough*


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Forest First...Trees Second
Feb 9 ~ Mar 11 ~ Apr 09 ~ May 09 ~ Jun 07 ~ Jul 07 ~ Jul 22 ~ Aug 06 ~ Sep 04 ~ Oct 04 ~ Nov 02 ~ Dec 02 ~ Dec 31
2008-04-12 19:55:37
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Atticuswfu
Posts: 167
Incept: 2007-07-10
Tampa, FL
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-Deleted-


Last modified: 2008-04-12 20:02:23 by atticuswfu

2008-04-12 19:59:20
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Fidgit
Posts: 14066
Incept: 2008-02-18

AllyBammy
Online
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Awesome, Karl, thx for this -

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I say it's spinach, and I say the hell with it.
2008-04-12 20:51:53
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