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Genesis Posts: 71423 Incept: 2007-06-26 
KD^2 
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http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2007/....
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-07-10 16:41:58
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Early_retirement Posts: 1843 Incept: 2007-06-26 
Burlington, Vermont
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I've been waiting all day to read your ticker today...looks like things are coming to fruition for us shorts (realists).
---------- "You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else."
2007-07-10 16:51:56
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Early_retirement Posts: 1843 Incept: 2007-06-26
Burlington, Vermont
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Oh yeah...the VIX was up 2.41 to 17.54 today....WOW!
---------- "You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else."
2007-07-10 16:52:59
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Genesis Posts: 71423 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Yep. Loving those VIX calls..... 
---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-07-10 16:56:36
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Bobbylaw Posts: 318 Incept: 2007-07-08 Los ANgeles
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Gen, You are the BEST. Keep up the GREAT work.
2007-07-10 17:01:26
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Ruffcut Posts: 2196 Incept: 2007-07-07 Mushagain
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I really wish CFC and WM would get an ass whuppin, before next Friday. The big of the this fed test is yet to be seen. The decline they don't care about, but the crash is probably their biggest fear. So are we supposed to put our cash. Where do you buy euros?? ---------- Support locally, and **** off globally!
2007-07-10 17:51:28
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Ilikethehype Posts: 573 Incept: 2007-06-26 
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Gold isn't the place, yet. I think it is too early to tell where to park cash. Right now, I'm looking at working the market drop.
---------- Bernanke himself revealed the various policy measures the Fed might take in response to a crisis: buying government bonds, providing overdrafts and other short-term credits to banks, currency swaps (to boost the dollar), and "securities lending," that is, lending money to institutions to buy stocks. URL htt
2007-07-10 17:53:36
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Genesis Posts: 71423 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Ditto. I ain't going to metals until the hyperinflation scenario starts to play. I don't think its going to happen. My expectation is that we're instead looking at a major economic ****storm BUT no abandonment of the dollar. I can't imagine Bernacke will do that - it will ass-**** EVERY middle-class and below American to an unimaginable degree, which could quite easily destabilize the nation not just economically but POLITICALLY. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-07-10 17:55:50
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Ilikethehype Posts: 573 Incept: 2007-06-26
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The dollar will be defended. And if there is a global flight to quality, it's still here.
---------- Bernanke himself revealed the various policy measures the Fed might take in response to a crisis: buying government bonds, providing overdrafts and other short-term credits to banks, currency swaps (to boost the dollar), and "securities lending," that is, lending money to institutions to buy stocks. URL htt
2007-07-10 17:59:13
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Mo Posts: 5501 Incept: 2007-06-26
Florida
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You might be correct that Bush will attack Iran's nuke sites. But once we get our troops out of Iraq - and it looks as though Congress and public opinion will make this happen in the Fall sometime, what's not to like about Israel just nuking the whole place? Had we used tactical nukes in Tora Bora in 2001, we would have had no more problems from the governments in the middle east and central asia, and the effects would have been relatively isolated. Instead, in our denial of the reality of the threat we face from radical Islam, we invaded Iraq. It was a foolish choice. ---------- "The World has been cancelled. It doesn't even look like the world. There is one island that is maintained and is said to be owned by the Sheikh and the rest looks like a pile of muck."
2007-07-10 18:35:08
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Ilikethehype Posts: 573 Incept: 2007-06-26
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I don't think he would do anything like that considering the time he has left. Not unless absolutely forced to do it.
---------- Bernanke himself revealed the various policy measures the Fed might take in response to a crisis: buying government bonds, providing overdrafts and other short-term credits to banks, currency swaps (to boost the dollar), and "securities lending," that is, lending money to institutions to buy stocks. URL htt
2007-07-10 18:39:50
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Genesis Posts: 71423 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Well, I don't think going into Iraq was a mistake. I believe that Bush intended to go there first, then use that as a base to force Syria and Iran to capitulate - with force if necessary. Bang - there goes the "Axis of Evil." The miscalculation was in going in there panzy-footed instead of simply flattening everything that got in our way. We had the bad guys cornered twice in Falluja - had we chosen to we could have carpet-bombed the entire city to dust after letting women and children out and that would have been that. But because we are so worried about "opinion" it didn't happen. It should have, but didn't. Big mistake. Tora Bora should have gotten a Neutron weapon, or simply go in there and drop bunker-buster after bunker-buster until the caves were sealed shut. No warning, no talking, just do it. End of problem. But we still had to deal with Iraq/Syria/Iran. No way around it. Why not let Israel nuke them? Because if they do there will be a Muslim/Judeo-Christian World War, that's why, and there are places the Muslims can get their hands on nukes. You don't want that **** over here and neither do I. We simply can't let that sort of conflict get lit because we can't put this Genie back in the bottle if it gets out. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-07-10 18:40:49
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Ilikethehype Posts: 573 Incept: 2007-06-26
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I don't think they would see much difference between us attacking them or Israel attacking them. I think they just want someone to attack them.
---------- Bernanke himself revealed the various policy measures the Fed might take in response to a crisis: buying government bonds, providing overdrafts and other short-term credits to banks, currency swaps (to boost the dollar), and "securities lending," that is, lending money to institutions to buy stocks. URL htt
2007-07-10 18:47:36
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Mo Posts: 5501 Incept: 2007-06-26
Florida
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You are correct that we could have fought the Iraq war differently and had a different outcome, but we didn't. And frankly, we don't have the same military we had in years earlier in terms of troop strength. The only option was to try to occupy it the way we did, or flatten the whole place with out technology. Bush chose the former. As for the Islamists bringing nukes here, it's inevitable. The only question is - do we hit them before or after they hit us. The truly frightening part is the level of denial in the US. ---------- "The World has been cancelled. It doesn't even look like the world. There is one island that is maintained and is said to be owned by the Sheikh and the rest looks like a pile of muck."
2007-07-10 18:47:52
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Mo Posts: 5501 Incept: 2007-06-26
Florida
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People talk about suicide bombers, Ilikethehype, but they fail to realize that whole cultures become suicidal. We've seen this before in history. Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, the Khmer Rouge. Anytime you hear some leader talking about returning to some distant idealized past and the people respond, watch out. ---------- "The World has been cancelled. It doesn't even look like the world. There is one island that is maintained and is said to be owned by the Sheikh and the rest looks like a pile of muck."
2007-07-10 18:52:12
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Ilikethehype Posts: 573 Incept: 2007-06-26
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Last I heard, the students were getting restless in Iran. They have gas rationing and that is hurting. Not sure what other economic issues the UN has been able to enforce.
---------- Bernanke himself revealed the various policy measures the Fed might take in response to a crisis: buying government bonds, providing overdrafts and other short-term credits to banks, currency swaps (to boost the dollar), and "securities lending," that is, lending money to institutions to buy stocks. URL htt
2007-07-10 18:58:00
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Eleua Posts: 9907 Incept: 2007-07-05
N 47.72/ W 122.55
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Genesis said: "The miscalculation was in going in there panzy-footed instead of simply flattening everything that got in our way...But because we are so worried about "opinion" it didn't happen." Absolutely dead-on-balls-accurate! In WW2 we had no concept of worrying about polls, and the hearts-n-minds of the enemy population. We firebombed Tokyo and killed tens of thousands of women, children, elderly, and infirm. After the war in Germany was over, one town (I forgot which) had a large uprising against the occupation. We pulled a Rome. We went to the city, surrounded it, refused to let anyone in or out, and blew the hell out of it. If you are going to go through the fuss of fighting a war, fight it! You would be surprised how the hearts and minds follow if you have them by the balls. This thing would have been over by '04/'05. ---------- http://clearcutbainbridge.blogspot.com/
2007-07-10 19:07:17
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Ilikethehype Posts: 573 Incept: 2007-06-26
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Things have changed. And then they haven't. Most people in the US haven't seen body after body after body of people they know that have been killed in a war or a terrorist act. As a result, they live in a protected environment, which is good, but they can lose perspective of how easily that can change.
---------- Bernanke himself revealed the various policy measures the Fed might take in response to a crisis: buying government bonds, providing overdrafts and other short-term credits to banks, currency swaps (to boost the dollar), and "securities lending," that is, lending money to institutions to buy stocks. URL htt
2007-07-10 19:14:54
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Eleua Posts: 9907 Incept: 2007-07-05
N 47.72/ W 122.55
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Not to pile on....but... What ended GW1 back in '91 was the Basra Retreat was broadcast all over the West. You know, the "Highway to Hell," where the Navy and some AF blew the crap out of Hussein's retreat. GHWB called off the pursuit of Hussein and ordered a cease fire. Powell called Schwartzkopf and told him to tell his field generals to cease offensive operations. I love NS's response: "Tell them yourself" It was a bad decision and it caused the present war. You can't run a war based upon how it looks on CNN. You don't slap the king. ---------- http://clearcutbainbridge.blogspot.com/
2007-07-10 19:18:59
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Genesis Posts: 71423 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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Yep. We should have killed every last one of them right then and there. I was royally ****ed off when they stopped on the "Highway to Hell." Hell is exactly where we needed to send them at the time, and if we had, most of this crap wouldn't have happened. Saddam would have been done right then and there. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-07-10 19:20:51
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Eleua Posts: 9907 Incept: 2007-07-05
N 47.72/ W 122.55
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Agreed. In order to get your enemy to truly surrender, you need to convince him that you are slightly unhinged. The Germans were fleeing the Red Army and attempting to surrender to Allied forces as quick as they could. They didn't know what would happen to them if they were taken by the USSR - a well founded fear. Japan thought we had even more nukes. Had we taken care of biz back in '91, that would have taught all the local Arab leaders that the US is not to be toyed with, and they would have given us a wide berth. There would likely have been peace in the region (at least as far as we are concerned) for a full generation. Since we telegraphed weakness (Basra retreat, Mogadishu), more Arabs have died. Unfortunately, even more will die due to our flaccid followthrough on the current conflict. Notice how Vlad is stirring the pot in Russia since we have been bogged down in a PR nightmare in Iraq? I always thought that the USSR saw how we did things in '91 (prior to the cease fire) and factored that into their calculus for folding things up later that year. Telegraphing strength is very stabilizing. ---------- http://clearcutbainbridge.blogspot.com/
2007-07-10 19:30:39
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Ilikethehype Posts: 573 Incept: 2007-06-26
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And Saddam would not have had time to clean house of the internal support we did have in Iraq.
---------- Bernanke himself revealed the various policy measures the Fed might take in response to a crisis: buying government bonds, providing overdrafts and other short-term credits to banks, currency swaps (to boost the dollar), and "securities lending," that is, lending money to institutions to buy stocks. URL htt
2007-07-10 19:32:17
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Dashingdwl Posts: 4564 Incept: 2007-06-26
los angeles
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You rock. Iran beware. Taking on Iraq the right thing to do. Your analysis, to quote eleua, is "dead-on-balls-accurate". LCDX8 closed at 96.40 today... it's getting risky out there. ---------- Think Green Tip.
2007-07-10 19:32:38
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Zzt Posts: 983 Incept: 2007-06-26
Glendale az
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I dont know if using nukes is necessary. Maybe on a few hardened targets but I just dont know enough about our munitions cababiliteis to make that judgement. I'd like to cripple them without actually going to war with any of them. How about doing just a few other things like : bomb their oil pipelines once a week? They dont know how to fix them and they wont have the revenue to pay anyone if there isnt any money coming in from oil. Corollary to that action we would have to shut down the boarders better, freeze bank accounts and confiscate assets, maybe expell certain groups of people etc etc. You get the point. They may hate us, but if we quit being pansies and act, what the hell they gonna do about it? Their societies will have have their hands full trying to eat and find fresh water and they may stop worring about the Great Satan over here. Hell, they may kiss our asses for a few bushels of wheat and corn to stay alive. Food for oil on a bushel per barrel basis sounds pretty good to me. Maybe the lazy bastards would even get the guts to throw out the fanatic leaders and move all the way into the civilized 20th century. Maybe if they tried to be a little ( not entirely ) more reasonable like us they would grow to like it. New economies with a chicken in every pot and no government or religious torture chambers on every corner would sound great to me if I lived there. The down side to this is the price of oil would go ballistic. Cant make a an omelette without cracking some eggs I guess.
2007-07-10 19:47:44
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Genesis Posts: 71423 Incept: 2007-06-26
KD^2
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WE can bomb them with conventional weapons and do the job but Israel can't. That's the problem and why we're going to have to do it. If we don't Israel WILL nuke them. This is not a matter for discussion; they will not allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon and will do whatever is necessary to prevent it. We can't stop it so our only choice is to take care of the problem before they feel the need to. ---------- "The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2007-07-10 19:52:27
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